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世界中で一億人以上のSARS感染者が一年以内に広がる恐れがある
とイギリスの科学者は警告する。
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,6341637^661,00.html
Billion SARS cases feared
By MARY PAPADAKIS
27apr03
MORE than one billion people worldwide could be infected by the deadly SARS virus within a year, a leading UK scientist has warned.
Dr Patrick Dixon, a specialist in predicting global trends based at London's Development Management School, said SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) had the potential to turn into a pandemic and infect more people than AIDS.
The grim prediction comes as a Melbourne infection control specialist warned the virus could destroy Third World countries.
Glenys Harrington, who flew to Manila yesterday to join the World Health Organisation's assault on SARS, said the virus was a major threat to developing nations.
"Countries that are Third World or very poor may in fact be easily overwhelmed by SARS," she said.
"It could devastate some of these countries. It's important to offer any kind of assistance to them now.
"If we don't have a global effort to help countries that are under-resourced, it can get out of control."
In other developments:
UK scientists said a SARS vaccine could be ready by the end of the year but safety checks could delay its introduction for two years and it was not expected to work indefinitely because the virus is mutating.
THE first commercial diagnostic test for SARS, developed by German biotechnology company Artus, should arrive in Australia next week.
THE WHO has called for an official global hunt to track down every possible case and halt the explosive epidemic.
VIETNAM will be declared the first country to contain the virus if no new cases are diagnosed by April 30.
CHINA intensified its efforts against the virus, launching a national SARS control centre and a 10-step strategy for tackling the crisis, including improved quarantine and free medical services to poor SARS patients.
TAIWAN relocated 480 health workers, who were quarantined with 600 patients and visitors at SARS-ravaged Taipei Municipal Ho Ping Hospital, to military barracks.
HONG KONG officials took samples from a apartment block, the Hing Tung House, where seven people became ill.
Ms Harrington, 46, who is The Alfred hospital's infection control program co-ordinator, said she would help assess the preparedness of the country to which she was assigned to treat SARS.
Her six-week mission includes reviewing isolation, infection control and cleaning procedures, demonstrating how to use personal protective equipment and developing strategies in case of a SARS outbreak.
"We are certainly doing the same things here but we are in a different situation in that we are better resourced," she said.
"In Victoria, we are very well prepared from an infectious diseases point of view."
SARS is believed to be transmitted by tiny droplets from coughs or sneezes.
But there is also evidence it can be caught by touching contaminated objects such as door handles.
Experts have advised people to wash hands regularly and wear masks when travelling in SARS-affected areas.
SARS patients have been advised to wear masks and sneeze into a tissue which should then be flushed down the toilet or placed in a sealed plastic bag and thrown away.
A nine-year-old NSW boy remains the only Australian being monitored for SARS.
Four Australians were notified to the WHO as probable SARS cases, including three siblings in Victoria, but all recovered fully.
There have been more than 280 deaths from 4600 cases of SARS reported worldwide.
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