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http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/22/politics/22MILI.html
Army Is Planning for 100,000 G.I.'s in Iraq Till 2006
By ERIC SCHMITT
Published: November 22, 2003
ASHINGTON, Nov. 21 — Army planning for Iraq currently assumes keeping about 100,000 United States troops there through early 2006, a senior Army officer said Friday. The plans reflect the concerns of some Army officials that stabilizing Iraq could be more difficult than originally planned.
The officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity, warned that maintaining a force of that size in Iraq beyond then would cause the Army to "really start to feel the pain" from stresses on overtaxed active-duty, Reserve and National Guard troops.
The officer was offering a senior-level Army view on the issue, but the size of any future American force in Iraq will ultimately be decided by President Bush and a new provisional Iraqi government that is expected to assume control from an American administrator by June. The Army plans nevertheless give a view of top-level Pentagon thinking about the size of the American force that may be needed in Iraq well beyond the time next year when Washington expects to turn political control of Iraq back to Iraqi leaders.
Mr. Bush has said he will be guided by the military's judgment in deciding troop levels. Military officials have said they will base their recommendations largely on security conditions in Iraq and the extent Iraqis are trained to fill missions now carried out by American troops.
Another senior military official cautioned that while the senior Army officer's comments reflected prudent planning, it "has nothing to do with what the security situation on the ground might be in 18 months."
The Pentagon has said it will reduce the American military presence in Iraq to 105,000 by May from 130,000 now. While some defense officials have raised the possibility of shrinking the force even more next year, if circumstances allow, the senior Army officer said Army planners were assuming that the number of American forces in Iraq would probably stay the same when the military begins its third one-year troop rotation in March 2005.
"What we're looking at doing is making some assumptions with the Marines about sustaining the type of force we're going to need," said the officer, who spoke to a small group of military reporters. "As you look at this, it wouldn't seem prudent right now to plan on using a force of less than what is there now, for March '05." That force would presumably remain in Iraq until March 2006, although its size could fluctuate, depending on conditions on the ground.
A third senior military official said that, while planning for the force to enter Iraq in early 2005 was under way, it was far too early to predict how many American troops would be needed for that rotation.
White House and Defense Department officials have insisted political considerations played no role in the Pentagon's decision to reduce the force that is rotating into Iraq next spring to replace troops that have been there a year. On Thursday, Mr. Bush even suggested he was open to rethinking the Pentagon's plan to cut troop levels in Iraq next year.
Many military planners are looking at future troop levels in Iraq, for different reasons. Army and Marine Corps officials must plan for worst-case scenarios, since their services will provide the vast majority of forces in future rotations. Planners on the military's Joint Staff in Washington examine how forces are allocated for hot spots around the world.
Planners at the United States Central Command in Tampa, Fla., which has responsibility for military operations in Iraq, closely watch the specific troop requirements in Iraq. For that reason, Gen. John P. Abizaid of the Army, who heads the Central Command, will probably have the most influential voice in deciding future troop levels in Iraq.
"John Abizaid is the one who's going to tell us at several points down the road over the next couple of years what he thinks he's going to need," the senior Army officer said.
Even so, the views of senior Army and Marine Corps officers involved in the planning in Washington are important because they track and respond to what ground commanders in Iraq say they require.
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