http://www.pbs.org/wsw/news/featurestory_20020821.html

The problem

So what's the problem? Running an airline is among the riskiest businesses to be in. "They make money when the economy is doing well and then lose tons of it," said Steven Morrison, a professor at Northeastern University. "It's extremely cyclical."

Cyclical indeed. A lot of things have to go right for an airline to make gobs of money:

Fuel prices: A $1 move in crude oil prices changes a major airline's net income by $180 million, according to Deutsche Bank. A big reason airlines thrived in the late 1990s and 2000 was cheap oil.

Accidents: Safety counts and worries stemming from Sept. 11 helped put the airlines in their current state. Analysts are split on how much to attribute to Sept. 11, however, noting management miscues also play a big part.

Pricing: Too many airlines, online ticketing and cost conscious business travelers have fueled price wars that have cut profit margins. Meanwhile, low-cost carriers are stealing customers because they can cut prices more. In addition, government taxes and fees still play a role in tickets, accounting for about $50 of a $200 ticket, according to Deutsche Bank.

Capacity: Airline management has traditionally thought big: Big fleets, big aircrafts and big expenses. "Historically, airline management has been prone to excess capacity," said Dick Barsness, a professor at Lehigh University. "Airlines have pushed capacity beyond demand and siphoned off their profits."

That's part of the reason analysts cheered American's restructuring. It cut capacity by 9 percent and shelved 75 Fokker 100s, smaller planes that were eating up maintenance costs.

Routes: Major airlines have been hurt by complicated "hub and spoke" systems where most routes are funneled into one hub such as Chicago's O'Hare Airport. The system magnifies bad weather and congestion risks. Successful airlines such as JetBlue and Southwest have back-and-forth routes that keep planes in the air longer.

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