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□イラクのレジスタンスの総数は20万人以上 [アルジャジーラ]
・イラク諜報機関の代表者Muhammad Abd Allah Shahwaniによると，
イラク国内で活動しているレジスタンス(戦闘員と協力者)の総数は
イラクに駐留するアメリカ軍よりも多い20万人以上に達しているという。
この20万人のうち4万人が『常備軍』としてアメリカ軍との戦いに参加している。
また，レジスタンスは協力者たちによって，隠れ家や補給網，諜報機関などを
独自に保有しており，レジスタンスはバグダッド, Babil, Salah al-Din, Diyala,
NinevehおよびTamim州などの広い地域で彼らの支援を受けている。
レジスタンスの中核は部族と旧イラク軍の軍人たちから成り立っているという。
また，Shahwaniは2004年11月から始まったファルージャに対する
攻撃でアメリカ軍が勝利できていないことを認めており，
イラク中部にあるいくつかの都市とその近隣の町が事実上アメリカ軍が
立ち入ることのできない区域となり，バグダッド市内の複数の地区も
さまざまなレジスタンスのグループによって支配されていることも認めている。
アメリカ国内のアナリストたちも，Shahwaniが示したこの情勢分析をほぼ受け入れている。
http://www.iraq-war.ru/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=35209
Spy chief says 200,000 fighters in Iraq
By: Aljazeera.net on: 03.01.2005 [15:44]
Spy chief says 200,000 fighters in Iraq
Monday 03 January 2005, 17:46 Makka Time, 14:46 GMT
Shahwani: Iraqi resistance bigger than the US army in Iraq
The head of the Iraqi intelligence service has estimated that there are more than 200,000 active fighters and sympathisers in the war-torn country.
Service director General Muhammad Abd Allah Shahwani told journalists on Monday that his assessment included 40,000 fulltime fighters and about 200,000 Iraqis involved part-time.
He added that part-timers were also likely to be providing everything from intelligence to logistics and shelter.
"I think the resistance is bigger than the US military in Iraq. I think the resistance is more than 200,000 people," he added.
The numbers far exceed any figure presented by the US military in Iraq, which has struggled to control the country since ousting the former government in April 2003.
Past US military assessments on fighter numbers have been increased from 5000 to 20,000 full and part-time members in the past half year, most recently in October.
Assessment details
Shahwani said "the resistance" enjoys wide backing in the provinces of Baghdad, Babil, Salah al-Din, Diyala, Nineveh and Tamim.
He said fighters have gained strength through Iraq's tight-knit tribal bonds and links to the old 400,000-strong Iraqi army, dissolved by the US occupation in May 2003 two months after the US-led invasion.
"People are fed up after two years without improvement. People are fed up with no security, no electricity, people feel they have to do something," he said.
Shahwani questioned the value
of destroying Falluja
"The army was hundreds of thousands. You would expect some veterans would join with their relatives, each one has sons and brothers."
The intelligence chief added that some city neighbourhoods and small towns around central Iraq had become virtual no-go zones despite US military efforts in Samarra and Falluja.
He also named areas in Baghdad itself where various groups had become virtually untouchable.
Falluja's failure
And in stark contrast to many US assessments of success in Falluja, the spy chief said the November campaign of the town was far from a military triumph.
"What we have now is an empty city almost destroyed and most of the insurgents are free. They have gone either to Mosul or to Baghdad or other areas."
Shahwani stopped short of saying that anti-US fighters were now taking control of the situation in Iraq, but warned: "I would say they aren't losing."
US analyst comments
Defence experts have broadly accepted the new assessment as valid.
Bruce Hoffman, who served as an adviser to the US occupation in Iraq and now works for US-based thinktank Rand Corporation, said he believed the estimate, though it said it was impossible to know for sure.
And Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst with the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, put Shahwani's estimates on an equal footing with the American's.
"The Iraqi figures do recognise the reality that the insurgency in Iraq has broad support in Sunni areas while the US figures down play this to the point of denial."
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