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THE IRAN PLANS
Would President Bush go to war to stop Tehran from getting the bomb?
by SEYMOUR M. HERSH
Issue of 2006-04-17
Posted 2006-04-10

The Bush Administration, while publicly advocating diplomacy in order to stop Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon, has increased clandestine activities inside Iran and intensified planning for a possible major air attack. Current and former American military and intelligence officials said that Air Force planning groups are drawing up lists of targets, and teams of American combat troops have been ordered into Iran, under cover, to collect targeting data and to establish contact with anti-government ethnic-minority groups. The officials say that President Bush is determined to deny the Iranian regime the opportunity to begin a pilot program, planned for this spring, to enrich uranium.

American and European intelligence agencies, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (I.A.E.A.), agree that Iran is intent on developing the capability to produce nuclear weapons. But there are widely differing estimates of how long that will take, and whether diplomacy, sanctions, or military action is the best way to prevent it. Iran insists that its research is for peaceful use only, in keeping with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and that it will not be delayed or deterred.

There is a growing conviction among members of the United States military, and in the international community, that President Bushfs ultimate goal in the nuclear confrontation with Iran is regime change. Iranfs President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has challenged the reality of the Holocaust and said that Israel must be gwiped off the map.h Bush and others in the White House view him as a potential Adolf Hitler, a former senior intelligence official said. gThatfs the name theyfre using. They say, eWill Iran get a strategic weapon and threaten another world war?f h

A government consultant with close ties to the civilian leadership in the Pentagon said that Bush was gabsolutely convinced that Iran is going to get the bombh if it is not stopped. He said that the President believes that he must do gwhat no Democrat or Republican, if elected in the future, would have the courage to do,h and gthat saving Iran is going to be his legacy.h

One former defense official, who still deals with sensitive issues for the Bush Administration, told me that the military planning was premised on a belief that ga sustained bombing campaign in Iran will humiliate the religious leadership and lead the public to rise up and overthrow the government.h He added, gI was shocked when I heard it, and asked myself, eWhat are they smoking?f h

The rationale for regime change was articulated in early March by Patrick Clawson, an Iran expert who is the deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and who has been a supporter of President Bush. gSo long as Iran has an Islamic republic, it will have a nuclear-weapons program, at least clandestinely,h Clawson told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on March 2nd. gThe key issue, therefore, is: How long will the present Iranian regime last?h

When I spoke to Clawson, he emphasized that gthis Administration is putting a lot of effort into diplomacy.h However, he added, Iran had no choice other than to accede to Americafs demands or face a military attack. Clawson said that he fears that Ahmadinejad gsees the West as wimps and thinks we will eventually cave in. We have to be ready to deal with Iran if the crisis escalates.h Clawson said that he would prefer to rely on sabotage and other clandestine activities, such as gindustrial accidents.h But, he said, it would be prudent to prepare for a wider war, ggiven the way the Iranians are acting. This is not like planning to invade Quebec.h

One military planner told me that White House criticisms of Iran and the high tempo of planning and clandestine activities amount to a campaign of gcoercionh aimed at Iran. gYou have to be ready to go, and wefll see how they respond,h the officer said. gYou have to really show a threat in order to get Ahmadinejad to back down.h He added, gPeople think Bush has been focussed on Saddam Hussein since 9/11,h but, gin my view, if you had to name one nation that was his focus all the way along, it was Iran.h (In response to detailed requests for comment, the White House said that it would not comment on military planning but added, gAs the President has indicated, we are pursuing a diplomatic solutionh; the Defense Department also said that Iran was being dealt with through gdiplomatic channelsh but wouldnft elaborate on that; the C.I.A. said that there were ginaccuraciesh in this account but would not specify them.)

gThis is much more than a nuclear issue,h one high-ranking diplomat told me in Vienna. gThatfs just a rallying point, and there is still time to fix it. But the Administration believes it cannot be fixed unless they control the hearts and minds of Iran. The real issue is who is going to control the Middle East and its oil in the next ten years.h

A senior Pentagon adviser on the war on terror expressed a similar view. gThis White House believes that the only way to solve the problem is to change the power structure in Iran, and that means war,h he said. The danger, he said, was that git also reinforces the belief inside Iran that the only way to defend the country is to have a nuclear capability.h A military conflict that destabilized the region could also increase the risk of terror: gHezbollah comes into play,h the adviser said, referring to the terror group that is considered one of the worldfs most successful, and which is now a Lebanese political party with strong ties to Iran. gAnd here comes Al Qaeda.h

In recent weeks, the President has quietly initiated a series of talks on plans for Iran with a few key senators and members of Congress, including at least one Democrat. A senior member of the House Appropriations Committee, who did not take part in the meetings but has discussed their content with his colleagues, told me that there had been gno formal briefings,h because gtheyfre reluctant to brief the minority. Theyfre doing the Senate, somewhat selectively.h

The House member said that no one in the meetings gis really objectingh to the talk of war. gThe people theyfre briefing are the same ones who led the charge on Iraq. At most, questions are raised: How are you going to hit all the sites at once? How are you going to get deep enough?h (Iran is building facilities underground.) gTherefs no pressure from Congressh not to take military action, the House member added. gThe only political pressure is from the guys who want to do it.h Speaking of President Bush, the House member said, gThe most worrisome thing is that this guy has a messianic vision.h

Some operations, apparently aimed in part at intimidating Iran, are already under way. American Naval tactical aircraft, operating from carriers in the Arabian Sea, have been flying simulated nuclear-weapons delivery missions\rapid ascending maneuvers known as gover the shoulderh bombing\since last summer, the former official said, within range of Iranian coastal radars.

Last month, in a paper given at a conference on Middle East security in Berlin, Colonel Sam Gardiner, a military analyst who taught at the National War College before retiring from the Air Force, in 1987, provided an estimate of what would be needed to destroy Iranfs nuclear program. Working from satellite photographs of the known facilities, Gardiner estimated that at least four hundred targets would have to be hit. He added:

I donft think a U.S. military planner would want to stop there. Iran probably has two chemical-production plants. We would hit those. We would want to hit the medium-range ballistic missiles that have just recently been moved closer to Iraq. There are fourteen airfields with sheltered aircraft. . . . Wefd want to get rid of that threat. We would want to hit the assets that could be used to threaten Gulf shipping. That means targeting the cruise-missile sites and the Iranian diesel submarines. . . . Some of the facilities may be too difficult to target even with penetrating weapons. The U.S. will have to use Special Operations units.

One of the militaryfs initial option plans, as presented to the White House by the Pentagon this winter, calls for the use of a bunker-buster tactical nuclear weapon, such as the B61-11, against underground nuclear sites. One target is Iranfs main centrifuge plant, at Natanz, nearly two hundred miles south of Tehran. Natanz, which is no longer under I.A.E.A. safeguards, reportedly has underground floor space to hold fifty thousand centrifuges, and laboratories and workspaces buried approximately seventy-five feet beneath the surface. That number of centrifuges could provide enough enriched uranium for about twenty nuclear warheads a year. (Iran has acknowledged that it initially kept the existence of its enrichment program hidden from I.A.E.A. inspectors, but claims that none of its current activity is barred by the Non-Proliferation Treaty.) The elimination of Natanz would be a major setback for Iranfs nuclear ambitions, but the conventional weapons in the American arsenal could not insure the destruction of facilities under seventy-five feet of earth and rock, especially if they are reinforced with concrete.

There is a Cold War precedent for targeting deep underground bunkers with nuclear weapons. In the early nineteen-eighties, the American intelligence community watched as the Soviet government began digging a huge underground complex outside Moscow. Analysts concluded that the underground facility was designed for gcontinuity of governmenth\for the political and military leadership to survive a nuclear war. (There are similar facilities, in Virginia and Pennsylvania, for the American leadership.) The Soviet facility still exists, and much of what the U.S. knows about it remains classified. gThe etellf h\the giveaway\gwas the ventilator shafts, some of which were disguised,h the former senior intelligence official told me. At the time, he said, it was determined that gonly nukesh could destroy the bunker. He added that some American intelligence analysts believe that the Russians helped the Iranians design their underground facility. gWe see a similarity of design,h specifically in the ventilator shafts, he said.

A former high-level Defense Department official told me that, in his view, even limited bombing would allow the U.S. to ggo in there and do enough damage to slow down the nuclear infrastructure\itfs feasible.h The former defense official said, gThe Iranians donft have friends, and we can tell them that, if necessary, wefll keep knocking back their infrastructure. The United States should act like wefre ready to go.h He added, gWe donft have to knock down all of their air defenses. Our stealth bombers and standoff missiles really work, and we can blow fixed things up. We can do things on the ground, too, but itfs difficult and very dangerous\put bad stuff in ventilator shafts and put them to sleep.h

But those who are familiar with the Soviet bunker, according to the former senior intelligence official, gsay eNo way.f Youfve got to know whatfs underneath\to know which ventilator feeds people, or diesel generators, or which are false. And therefs a lot that we donft know.h The lack of reliable intelligence leaves military planners, given the goal of totally destroying the sites, little choice but to consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons. gEvery other option, in the view of the nuclear weaponeers, would leave a gap,h the former senior intelligence official said. g eDecisivef is the key word of the Air Forcefs planning. Itfs a tough decision. But we made it in Japan.h

He went on, gNuclear planners go through extensive training and learn the technical details of damage and fallout\wefre talking about mushroom clouds, radiation, mass casualties, and contamination over years. This is not an underground nuclear test, where all you see is the earth raised a little bit. These politicians donft have a clue, and whenever anybody tries to get it outh\remove the nuclear option\gtheyfre shouted down.h

The attention given to the nuclear option has created serious misgivings inside the offices of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, he added, and some officers have talked about resigning. Late this winter, the Joint Chiefs of Staff sought to remove the nuclear option from the evolving war plans for Iran\without success, the former intelligence official said. gThe White House said, eWhy are you challenging this? The option came from you.f h

The Pentagon adviser on the war on terror confirmed that some in the Administration were looking seriously at this option, which he linked to a resurgence of interest in tactical nuclear weapons among Pentagon civilians and in policy circles. He called it ga juggernaut that has to be stopped.h He also confirmed that some senior officers and officials were considering resigning over the issue. gThere are very strong sentiments within the military against brandishing nuclear weapons against other countries,h the adviser told me. gThis goes to high levels.h The matter may soon reach a decisive point, he said, because the Joint Chiefs had agreed to give President Bush a formal recommendation stating that they are strongly opposed to considering the nuclear option for Iran. gThe internal debate on this has hardened in recent weeks,h the adviser said. gAnd, if senior Pentagon officers express their opposition to the use of offensive nuclear weapons, then it will never happen.h

The adviser added, however, that the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons in such situations has gained support from the Defense Science Board, an advisory panel whose members are selected by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. gTheyfre telling the Pentagon that we can build the B61 with more blast and less radiation,h he said.

The chairman of the Defense Science Board is William Schneider, Jr., an Under-Secretary of State in the Reagan Administration. In January, 2001, as President Bush prepared to take office, Schneider served on an ad-hoc panel on nuclear forces sponsored by the National Institute for Public Policy, a conservative think tank. The panelfs report recommended treating tactical nuclear weapons as an essential part of the U.S. arsenal and noted their suitability gfor those occasions when the certain and prompt destruction of high priority targets is essential and beyond the promise of conventional weapons.h Several signers of the report are now prominent members of the Bush Administration, including Stephen Hadley, the national-security adviser; Stephen Cambone, the Under-Secretary of Defense for Intelligence; and Robert Joseph, the Under-Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security.

The Pentagon adviser questioned the value of air strikes. gThe Iranians have distributed their nuclear activity very well, and we have no clue where some of the key stuff is. It could even be out of the country,h he said. He warned, as did many others, that bombing Iran could provoke ga chain reactionh of attacks on American facilities and citizens throughout the world: gWhat will 1.2 billion Muslims think the day we attack Iran?h

With or without the nuclear option, the list of targets may inevitably expand. One recently retired high-level Bush Administration official, who is also an expert on war planning, told me that he would have vigorously argued against an air attack on Iran, because gIran is a much tougher targeth than Iraq. But, he added, gIf youfre going to do any bombing to stop the nukes, you might as well improve your lie across the board. Maybe hit some training camps, and clear up a lot of other problems.h

The Pentagon adviser said that, in the event of an attack, the Air Force intended to strike many hundreds of targets in Iran but that gninety-nine per cent of them have nothing to do with proliferation. There are people who believe itfs the way to operateh\that the Administration can achieve its policy goals in Iran with a bombing campaign, an idea that has been supported by neoconservatives.

If the order were to be given for an attack, the American combat troops now operating in Iran would be in position to mark the critical targets with laser beams, to insure bombing accuracy and to minimize civilian casualties. As of early winter, I was told by the government consultant with close ties to civilians in the Pentagon, the units were also working with minority groups in Iran, including the Azeris, in the north, the Baluchis, in the southeast, and the Kurds, in the northeast. The troops gare studying the terrain, and giving away walking-around money to ethnic tribes, and recruiting scouts from local tribes and shepherds,h the consultant said. One goal is to get geyes on the groundh\quoting a line from gOthello,h he said, gGive me the ocular proof.h The broader aim, the consultant said, is to gencourage ethnic tensionsh and undermine the regime.

The new mission for the combat troops is a product of Defense Secretary Rumsfeldfs long-standing interest in expanding the role of the military in covert operations, which was made official policy in the Pentagonfs Quadrennial Defense Review, published in February. Such activities, if conducted by C.I.A. operatives, would need a Presidential Finding and would have to be reported to key members of Congress.

g eForce protectionf is the new buzzword,h the former senior intelligence official told me. He was referring to the Pentagonfs position that clandestine activities that can be broadly classified as preparing the battlefield or protecting troops are military, not intelligence, operations, and are therefore not subject to congressional oversight. gThe guys in the Joint Chiefs of Staff say there are a lot of uncertainties in Iran,h he said. gWe need to have more than what we had in Iraq. Now we have the green light to do everything we want.h

Robert Baer, who was a C.I.A. officer in the Middle East and elsewhere for two decades, told me that Ahmadinejad and his Revolutionary Guard colleagues in the Iranian government gare capable of making a bomb, hiding it, and launching it at Israel. Theyfre apocalyptic Shiites. If youfre sitting in Tel Aviv and you believe theyfve got nukes and missiles\youfve got to take them out. These guys are nuts, and therefs no reason to back off.h

Under Ahmadinejad, the Revolutionary Guards have expanded their power base throughout the Iranian bureaucracy; by the end of January, they had replaced thousands of civil servants with their own members. One former senior United Nations official, who has extensive experience with Iran, depicted the turnover as ga white coup,h with ominous implications for the West. gProfessionals in the Foreign Ministry are out; others are waiting to be kicked out,h he said. gWe may be too late. These guys now believe that they are stronger than ever since the revolution.h He said that, particularly in consideration of Chinafs emergence as a superpower, Iranfs attitude was gTo hell with the West. You can do as much as you like.h

Iranfs supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is considered by many experts to be in a stronger position than Ahmadinejad. gAhmadinejad is not in control,h one European diplomat told me. gPower is diffuse in Iran. The Revolutionary Guards are among the key backers of the nuclear program, but, ultimately, I donft think they are in charge of it. The Supreme Leader has the casting vote on the nuclear program, and the Guards will not take action without his approval.h

The Pentagon adviser on the war on terror said that gallowing Iran to have the bomb is not on the table. We cannot have nukes being sent downstream to a terror network. Itfs just too dangerous.h He added, gThe whole internal debate is on which way to goh\in terms of stopping the Iranian program. It is possible, the adviser said, that Iran will unilaterally renounce its nuclear plans\and forestall the American action. gGod may smile on us, but I donft think so. The bottom line is that Iran cannot become a nuclear-weapons state. The problem is that the Iranians realize that only by becoming a nuclear state can they defend themselves against the U.S. Something bad is going to happen.h

While almost no one disputes Iranfs nuclear ambitions, there is intense debate over how soon it could get the bomb, and what to do about that. Robert Gallucci, a former government expert on nonproliferation who is now the dean of the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown, told me, gBased on what I know, Iran could be eight to ten years awayh from developing a deliverable nuclear weapon. Gallucci added, gIf they had a covert nuclear program and we could prove it, and we could not stop it by negotiation, diplomacy, or the threat of sanctions, Ifd be in favor of taking it out. But if you do ith\bomb Iran\gwithout being able to show therefs a secret program, youfre in trouble.h

Meir Dagan, the head of Mossad, Israelfs intelligence agency, told the Knesset last December that gIran is one to two years away, at the latest, from having enriched uranium. From that point, the completion of their nuclear weapon is simply a technical matter.h In a conversation with me, a senior Israeli intelligence official talked about what he said was Iranfs duplicity: gThere are two parallel nuclear programsh inside Iran\the program declared to the I.A.E.A. and a separate operation, run by the military and the Revolutionary Guards. Israeli officials have repeatedly made this argument, but Israel has not produced public evidence to support it. Richard Armitage, the Deputy Secretary of State in Bushfs first term, told me, gI think Iran has a secret nuclear-weapons program\I believe it, but I donft know it.h

In recent months, the Pakistani government has given the U.S. new access to A. Q. Khan, the so-called father of the Pakistani atomic bomb. Khan, who is now living under house arrest in Islamabad, is accused of setting up a black market in nuclear materials; he made at least one clandestine visit to Tehran in the late nineteen-eighties. In the most recent interrogations, Khan has provided information on Iranfs weapons design and its time line for building a bomb. gThe picture is of eunquestionable danger,f h the former senior intelligence official said. (The Pentagon adviser also confirmed that Khan has been gsinging like a canary.h) The concern, the former senior official said, is that gKhan has credibility problems. He is suggestible, and hefs telling the neoconservatives what they want to hearh\or what might be useful to Pakistanfs President, Pervez Musharraf, who is under pressure to assist Washington in the war on terror.

gI think Khanfs leading us on,h the former intelligence official said. gI donft know anybody who says, eHerefs the smoking gun.f But lights are beginning to blink. Hefs feeding us information on the time line, and targeting information is coming in from our own sources\ sensors and the covert teams. The C.I.A., which was so burned by Iraqi W.M.D., is going to the Pentagon and the Vice-Presidentfs office saying, eItfs all new stuff.f People in the Administration are saying, eWefve got enough.f h

The Administrationfs case against Iran is compromised by its history of promoting false intelligence on Iraqfs weapons of mass destruction. In a recent essay on the Foreign Policy Web site, entitled gFool Me Twice,h Joseph Cirincione, the director for nonproliferation at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote, gThe unfolding administration strategy appears to be an effort to repeat its successful campaign for the Iraq war.h He noted several parallels:

The vice president of the United States gives a major speech focused on the threat from an oil-rich nation in the Middle East. The U.S. Secretary of State tells Congress that the same nation is our most serious global challenge. The Secretary of Defense calls that nation the leading supporter of global terrorism.

Cirincione called some of the Administrationfs claims about Iran gquestionableh or lacking in evidence. When I spoke to him, he asked, gWhat do we know? What is the threat? The question is: How urgent is all this?h The answer, he said, gis in the intelligence community and the I.A.E.A.h (In August, the Washington Post reported that the most recent comprehensive National Intelligence Estimate predicted that Iran was a decade away from being a nuclear power.)

Last year, the Bush Administration briefed I.A.E.A. officials on what it said was new and alarming information about Iranfs weapons program which had been retrieved from an Iranianfs laptop. The new data included more than a thousand pages of technical drawings of weapons systems. The Washington Post reported that there were also designs for a small facility that could be used in the uranium-enrichment process. Leaks about the laptop became the focal point of stories in the Times and elsewhere. The stories were generally careful to note that the materials could have been fabricated, but also quoted senior American officials as saying that they appeared to be legitimate. The headline in the Timesf account read, gRELYING ON COMPUTER, U.S. SEEKS TO PROVE IRANfS NUCLEAR AIMS.h

I was told in interviews with American and European intelligence officials, however, that the laptop was more suspect and less revelatory than it had been depicted. The Iranian who owned the laptop had initially been recruited by German and American intelligence operatives, working together. The Americans eventually lost interest in him. The Germans kept on, but the Iranian was seized by the Iranian counter-intelligence force. It is not known where he is today. Some family members managed to leave Iran with his laptop and handed it over at a U.S. embassy, apparently in Europe. It was a classic gwalk-in.h

A European intelligence official said, gThere was some hesitation on our sideh about what the materials really proved, gand we are still not convinced.h The drawings were not meticulous, as newspaper accounts suggested, gbut had the character of sketches,h the European official said. gIt was not a slam-dunk smoking gun.h

The threat of American military action has created dismay at the headquarters of the I.A.E.A., in Vienna. The agencyfs officials believe that Iran wants to be able to make a nuclear weapon, but gnobody has presented an inch of evidence of a parallel nuclear-weapons program in Iran,h the high-ranking diplomat told me. The I.A.E.A.fs best estimate is that the Iranians are five years away from building a nuclear bomb. gBut, if the United States does anything militarily, they will make the development of a bomb a matter of Iranian national pride,h the diplomat said. gThe whole issue is Americafs risk assessment of Iranfs future intentions, and they donft trust the regime. Iran is a menace to American policy.h

In Vienna, I was told of an exceedingly testy meeting earlier this year between Mohamed ElBaradei, the I.A.E.A.fs director-general, who won the Nobel Peace Prize last year, and Robert Joseph, the Under-Secretary of State for Arms Control. Josephfs message was blunt, one diplomat recalled: gWe cannot have a single centrifuge spinning in Iran. Iran is a direct threat to the national security of the United States and our allies, and we will not tolerate it. We want you to give us an understanding that you will not say anything publicly that will undermine us. h

Josephfs heavy-handedness was unnecessary, the diplomat said, since the I.A.E.A. already had been inclined to take a hard stand against Iran. gAll of the inspectors are angry at being misled by the Iranians, and some think the Iranian leadership are nutcases\one hundred per cent totally certified nuts,h the diplomat said. He added that ElBaradeifs overriding concern is that the Iranian leaders gwant confrontation, just like the neocons on the other sideh\in Washington. gAt the end of the day, it will work only if the United States agrees to talk to the Iranians.h

The central question\whether Iran will be able to proceed with its plans to enrich uranium\is now before the United Nations, with the Russians and the Chinese reluctant to impose sanctions on Tehran. A discouraged former I.A.E.A. official told me in late March that, at this point, gtherefs nothing the Iranians could do that would result in a positive outcome. American diplomacy does not allow for it. Even if they announce a stoppage of enrichment, nobody will believe them. Itfs a dead end.h

Another diplomat in Vienna asked me, gWhy would the West take the risk of going to war against that kind of target without giving it to the I.A.E.A. to verify? Wefre low-cost, and we can create a program that will force Iran to put its cards on the table.h A Western Ambassador in Vienna expressed similar distress at the White Housefs dismissal of the I.A.E.A. He said, gIf you donft believe that the I.A.E.A. can establish an inspection system\if you donft trust them\you can only bomb.h

There is little sympathy for the I.A.E.A. in the Bush Administration or among its European allies. gWefre quite frustrated with the director-general,h the European diplomat told me. gHis basic approach has been to describe this as a dispute between two sides with equal weight. Itfs not. Wefre the good guys! ElBaradei has been pushing the idea of letting Iran have a small nuclear-enrichment program, which is ludicrous. Itfs not his job to push ideas that pose a serious proliferation risk.h

The Europeans are rattled, however, by their growing perception that President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney believe a bombing campaign will be needed, and that their real goal is regime change. gEveryone is on the same page about the Iranian bomb, but the United States wants regime change,h a European diplomatic adviser told me. He added, gThe Europeans have a role to play as long as they donft have to choose between going along with the Russians and the Chinese or going along with Washington on something they donft want. Their policy is to keep the Americans engaged in something the Europeans can live with. It may be untenable.h

gThe Brits think this is a very bad idea,h Flynt Leverett, a former National Security Council staff member who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institutionfs Saban Center, told me, gbut theyfre really worried wefre going to do it.h The European diplomatic adviser acknowledged that the British Foreign Office was aware of war planning in Washington but that, gshort of a smoking gun, itfs going to be very difficult to line up the Europeans on Iran.h He said that the British gare jumpy about the Americans going full bore on the Iranians, with no compromise.h

The European diplomat said that he was skeptical that Iran, given its record, had admitted to everything it was doing, but gto the best of our knowledge the Iranian capability is not at the point where they could successfully run centrifugesh to enrich uranium in quantity. One reason for pursuing diplomacy was, he said, Iranfs essential pragmatism. gThe regime acts in its best interests,h he said. Iranfs leaders gtake a hard-line approach on the nuclear issue and they want to call the American bluff,h believing that gthe tougher they are the more likely the West will fold.h But, he said, gFrom what wefve seen with Iran, they will appear superconfident until the moment they back off.h

The diplomat went on, gYou never reward bad behavior, and this is not the time to offer concessions. We need to find ways to impose sufficient costs to bring the regime to its senses. Itfs going to be a close call, but I think if there is unity in opposition and the price imposedh\in sanctions\gis sufficient, they may back down. Itfs too early to give up on the U.N. route.h He added, gIf the diplomatic process doesnft work, there is no military esolution.f There may be a military option, but the impact could be catastrophic.h

Tony Blair, the British Prime Minister, was George Bushfs most dependable ally in the year leading up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. But he and his party have been racked by a series of financial scandals, and his popularity is at a low point. Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, said last year that military action against Iran was ginconceivable.h Blair has been more circumspect, saying publicly that one should never take options off the table.

Other European officials expressed similar skepticism about the value of an American bombing campaign. gThe Iranian economy is in bad shape, and Ahmadinejad is in bad shape politically,h the European intelligence official told me. gHe will benefit politically from American bombing. You can do it, but the results will be worse.h An American attack, he said, would alienate ordinary Iranians, including those who might be sympathetic to the U.S. gIran is no longer living in the Stone Age, and the young people there have access to U.S. movies and books, and they love it,h he said. gIf there was a charm offensive with Iran, the mullahs would be in trouble in the long run.h

Another European official told me that he was aware that many in Washington wanted action. gItfs always the same guys,h he said, with a resigned shrug. gThere is a belief that diplomacy is doomed to fail. The timetable is short.h

A key ally with an important voice in the debate is Israel, whose leadership has warned for years that it viewed any attempt by Iran to begin enriching uranium as a point of no return. I was told by several officials that the White Housefs interest in preventing an Israeli attack on a Muslim country, which would provoke a backlash across the region, was a factor in its decision to begin the current operational planning. In a speech in Cleveland on March 20th, President Bush depicted Ahmadinejadfs hostility toward Israel as a gserious threat. Itfs a threat to world peace.h He added, gI made it clear, Ifll make it clear again, that we will use military might to protect our ally Israel.h

Any American bombing attack, Richard Armitage told me, would have to consider the following questions: gWhat will happen in the other Islamic countries? What ability does Iran have to reach us and touch us globally\that is, terrorism? Will Syria and Lebanon up the pressure on Israel? What does the attack do to our already diminished international standing? And what does this mean for Russia, China, and the U.N. Security Council?h

Iran, which now produces nearly four million barrels of oil a day, would not have to cut off production to disrupt the worldfs oil markets. It could blockade or mine the Strait of Hormuz, the thirty-four-mile-wide passage through which Middle Eastern oil reaches the Indian Ocean. Nonetheless, the recently retired defense official dismissed the strategic consequences of such actions. He told me that the U.S. Navy could keep shipping open by conducting salvage missions and putting mine- sweepers to work. gItfs impossible to block passage,h he said. The government consultant with ties to the Pentagon also said he believed that the oil problem could be managed, pointing out that the U.S. has enough in its strategic reserves to keep America running for sixty days. However, those in the oil business I spoke to were less optimistic; one industry expert estimated that the price per barrel would immediately spike, to anywhere from ninety to a hundred dollars per barrel, and could go higher, depending on the duration and scope of the conflict.

Michel Samaha, a veteran Lebanese Christian politician and former cabinet minister in Beirut, told me that the Iranian retaliation might be focussed on exposed oil and gas fields in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. gThey would be at risk,h he said, gand this could begin the real jihad of Iran versus the West. You will have a messy world.h

Iran could also initiate a wave of terror attacks in Iraq and elsewhere, with the help of Hezbollah. On April 2nd, the Washington Post reported that the planning to counter such attacks gis consuming a lot of timeh at U.S. intelligence agencies. gThe best terror network in the world has remained neutral in the terror war for the past several years,h the Pentagon adviser on the war on terror said of Hezbollah. gThis will mobilize them and put us up against the group that drove Israel out of southern Lebanon. If we move against Iran, Hezbollah will not sit on the sidelines. Unless the Israelis take them out, they will mobilize against us.h (When I asked the government consultant about that possibility, he said that, if Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel, gIsrael and the new Lebanese government will finish them off.h)

The adviser went on, gIf we go, the southern half of Iraq will light up like a candle.h The American, British, and other coalition forces in Iraq would be at greater risk of attack from Iranian troops or from Shiite militias operating on instructions from Iran. (Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, has close ties to the leading Shiite parties in Iraq.) A retired four-star general told me that, despite the eight thousand British troops in the region, gthe Iranians could take Basra with ten mullahs and one sound truck.h

gIf you attack,h the high-ranking diplomat told me in Vienna, gAhmadinejad will be the new Saddam Hussein of the Arab world, but with more credibility and more power. You must bite the bullet and sit down with the Iranians.h

The diplomat went on, gThere are people in Washington who would be unhappy if we found a solution. They are still banking on isolation and regime change. This is wishful thinking.h He added, gThe window of opportunity is now.h

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