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【欧米双方に拠点を置くシンクタンクが米国ミサイル防衛構想を有害無益と結論づけた】 米ミサイル防衛「無意味」 専門家が計画棚上げ提言
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http://www.usfl.com/Daily/News/09/05/0520_002.asp?id=69952
米ミサイル防衛「無意味」 専門家が計画棚上げ提言
更新2009年05月20日
10:47米国東部時間
米国、ロシア両国の安全保障専門家12人が19日、イランの核やミサイル開発に関する報告書を発表、欧州に対するイランの脅威は「切迫していない」として、米国のミサイル防衛（MD）計画を「無意味」と結論付け、オバマ米政権に計画棚上げを提言した。
ブッシュ前政権が推進したMDにはロシアが強く反発、両国の核軍縮交渉の障害にもなるとみられており、提言がオバマ政権の対応に影響を与える可能性がある。
報告書は欧米双方に拠点を置くシンクタンク「東西研究所」がまとめ、ジョーンズ米大統領補佐官（国家安全保障問題担当）とロシアのラブロフ外相に報告された。
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http://www.ewi.info/announcements/news/index.cfm?title=News&view=detail&nid=716&aid=7737
GROUNDBREAKING U.S.-RUSSIA JOINT THREAT ASSESSMENT ON IRAN
EWI Contact: Sarosh Syed, New York
19-May-2009, New York, NY -
NEW YORK. May 19. The EastWest Institute (EWI) released today a U.S.-Russia joint threat assessment on Iran’s nuclear and missile potential. More than a year in the making, the report was produced by a team of Russian and American scientists and experts brought together by EWI. “The EastWest Institute is proud to have facilitated such an unprecedented effort,” said John Edwin Mroz, President and CEO of the EastWest Institute. “We hope that this joint threat assessment by Russians and Americans will serve to inform a more collaborative and robust response to the Iranian program.”
The report finds that Iran could produce a simple nuclear device within one to three years. It could develop a nuclear warhead for ballistic missiles in six to eight years. It further finds that Iran will not be able, for at least ten to fifteen years, to independently master the technologies necessary for advanced intermediate-range ballistic missiles or intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Those timetables could be accelerated, the report notes, if Iran were to receive substantial outside help. While stressing that they do not know Iran’s political intentions, the report’s authors call on the U.S. and Russia to explore cooperative responses if Iran should try to “break out” as a nuclear power.
“It wasn't easy to produce a report both sides could agree on,” said Grigory Chernyavsky, Chairman of the Committee of Scientists for Global Security and Arms Control and one of the Russian contributors to the report. “But the final result provides a solid technical base for decision-making.”
The report’s participants warn that European missile defenses will not provide dependable protection against an Iranian threat if and when it emerges. They suggest that an effective response requires cooperation between Russia and the U.S. on missile defense, avoiding the kind of tensions that have arisen over the planned deployment of a U.S. missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.
"The important thing is for the U.S. and Russia to cooperate in resolving the urgent crisis arising from the Iranian program," said David Holloway, one of the contributors to the report and a faculty member at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University.
The idea of conducting the joint threat assessment on Iran first surfaced on October 27, 2007, when EWI convened a meeting of its U.S.-Russia Group on Counter-terrorism and Strategic Security in Moscow. The U.S. team was led by retired General James L. Jones and the Russian team by Ambassador Anatoly Safonov, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation.
The conclusions and recommendations in the report are the group’s own—EWI was pleased to convene the group and provide the space and resources for them to do their work, but did not exercise editorial control of the contents.
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Click here to download the U.S.-Russia Joint Threat Assessment on Iran's nuclear and missile potential (367K PDF)
http://docs.ewi.info/JTA.pdf
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Contacts:
Sarosh Syed, +1-646-662-1913, ssyed@ewi.info
Jean Dumont de Chassart, +32 (2) 743-4610, jdc@ewi.info
The following technical addenda are the contribution of Dr. Theodore Postol,
Professor of Science, Technology, and International Security at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. These addenda do not necessarily
represent the views of the other members of the study group. For additional information about the addenda, please contact Ted Postol at postol@mit.edu
Technical Addendum On Defense Against Iranian Ballistic Missiles (2.7MB PDF)
http://docs.ewi.info/JTA_TA_Defense.pdf
Technical Addendum On Iran's Ballistic Missile Program (2.8MB PDF)
http://docs.ewi.info/JTA_TA_Program.pdf
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