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Uniting Jordan and Iraq Might Be Prime Post-War strategy
30 September 2002

Summary

An idea to unite Jordan and Iraq in a pro-U.S. Hashemite kingdom after a U.S. war is being floated in diplomatic and opposition circles. The plan could be Washington's best scenario for ensuring a stable post-war Iraq, but the United States likely is still weighing the proposal's possible geopolitical benefits versus its problems and feasibility.

Analysis

As a U.S. war against Iraq appears to be nearing, both Washington and Middle Eastern players also are working to make sure the expected American victory will result in strategic long- term gains. The idea of a central Iraq populated by Sunni Arabs joining with Jordan to form one Hashemite kingdom is being considered as one way to secure such gains.

Such a plan reportedly was discussed at an unusual meeting between Crown Prince Hassan of Jordan and pro-U.S. Iraqi Sunni opposition members in London last July. In September, Israeli paper Yedioth Ahronoth stated that the U.S. goal in Iraq was to create a united Hashemite kingdom embracing Jordan and Iraq's Sunni areas. Israeli terrorism expert Ehud Sprinzak recently echoed this sentiment on Russian television Sept. 24.

http://www.stratfor.com/fib/fib_view.php?ID=206509

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