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★阿修羅♪
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★阿修羅♪
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情報が錯綜しているのだが、以下の記事をみるとどうも出口調査自体はVNS社は全米で実施したようなのだ。で，その調査結果は通常投票日の夜遅くテレビで発表されるのが恒例（投票所は８時締め切りなので）。ところが，今回に限って発表を急きょとりやめた。表向きには「技術的問題」というが，その後詳しい説明が一切なされていない。で，以下の記事がいうように、これは大きなミステリーなのである。
では，彼らはこの結果は発表するのか。以下がVNSの担当者の答え。
"The answer is we are looking into whether or not we will process the data," Lee C. Shapiro, VNS's media services director, said last week. "I would doubt that we would process it by next week.”
この非常に微妙な言い方に注意されたい。不思議な発言だ。データを処理するかどうかを調べている、調査しているといういいかただ。そしてそれを来週までに処理できるかは疑わしい、といっている。この調査している，という言葉遣いが意味深だ。どうも，データは発表するかもしれないししないかもしれない。するとしたらそのための結果の数字の操作をする時間がかかる，という意味が憶測される。
なおThe Voting News Service(VNS)は１９６４年以来出口調査を行っている会社だそうだが、これは主流メディア、ABC,AP,CBS,CNN,Fox,NBC合同で持っている会社だが、a top-secret private consortiumだそうである。つまり経営内容が超内密な会社だそうなのだ。（ちなみに、電子投票機械の納入会社は超富裕英国系会社にも所有されているという）
一つのみかたとして、米英指導エリートが投票装置、出口調査まで乗っ取った可能性が推測される。異常事態に入っており、彼らの支配意志、全体主義への急行は確乎たる様相があり，今後非常におそろしいことが予測される。
http://www.newsobserver.com/news/nc/story/1902810p-1886603c.html
By DAN KANE, Staff Writer
Though we're in an era of instant communication, automated polling and massive computer networks, the 2002 elections may go down as a big mystery contest in terms of who voted and why.
The Voter News Service, the exit poll service used by a consortium of major news organizations, failed election night, and it's unclear whether the service will ever release the data it collected around the country.
"The answer is we are looking into whether or not we will process the data," Lee C. Shapiro, VNS's media services director, said last week. "I would doubt that we would process it by next week."
Although the most obvious use of the exit poll has been to declare the winner before the votes are tallied -- an approach that spelled disaster in the 2000 presidential election -- the poll also provides a wealth of data as to how certain demographic groups voted, what key issues were on their minds and how well they thought elected officials were doing their jobs.
The questionnaire for North Carolina asked voters to choose the most important among seven issues -- corporate reform, trade policy, Social Security, the economy, Iraq, terrorism and education -- in deciding how they voted for U.S. senator. It asked whether the United States should take military action to remove Saddam Hussein and whether the nation's economy was excellent, good, not so good or poor.
Even more specific to Tar Heel residents, the questionnaire asked whether Elizabeth Dole had been away from North Carolina too long to be effective as a senator, and whether Erskine Bowles' experience as President Clinton's chief of staff was a factor. It also asked whether voters approved of U.S. Sen. Jesse Helms' performance.
The lack of data left political parties, pundits and news organizations, including The News & Observer, scrambling to draw some insight into the election results from other sources, such as precinct turnout. But despite the missed opportunity last week, many say they would still be interested in getting the exit poll data.
"The fact that these exit polls have been going on since the 1950s gives us a nice timeline for us to study the electorate from across the nation, the region and the state," said Thad Beyle, a political science professor at UNC-Chapel Hill. "The people who are in politics certainly want to know about it, and the people who do research on politics want to know about it."
Money factored in wins
One analysis that did become available after the election continued to confirm the power of money in politics. Democracy South reported that in North Carolina, all 13 winners to seats in Congress outspent their challengers, as did most of those elected to the state legislature.
The Carrboro-based public interest group reported that 155 of the 170 state legislators elected had raised more money than their opponents going into the campaign home stretch, or they had no opponent at all. That's a 91 percent success rate -- better than the previous five election cycles.
It's a success rate that begets more spending, Democracy South said. In 1992, only two state legislative candidates spent more than $100,000; at least 44 candidates had raised that much this season. Eleven candidates raised more than $300,000 this year.
Bob Hall, Democracy South's research director, said incumbent Senate Democrats were the main beneficiaries of the money advantage. Democrats maintained control of the Senate despite campaigning in North Carolina by President George Bush and the big win by the GOP candidate at the top of the ticket, U.S. Sen.-elect Elizabeth Dole.
"The Senate Democratic caucus used their piles of cash to offset the enormous popularity of Queen Elizabeth and King George in North Carolina," Hall said. "They seemed determined to bury their opponents with their money advantage, which meant voters were swamped with mailings, calls and ads promoting their message."
House Democrats also had a substantial fund-raising advantage to hold back losses from redistricting and the coattail effect, Democracy South said. In the 62 House races between two major party candidates, the 33 Democratic winners had a 3-to-1 money advantage over their GOP opponents, while the 29 Republican winners basically held even with the Democrats.
"The public finds the fund-raising arms race disgusting, but it's unrealistic to think the parties or candidates will disarm on their own," Hall said. "People have to get beyond being cynical or angry at politicians and focus on how to change the rules of the game."
By staff writer Dan Kane who can be reached at 829-4861 or dkane@newsobserver.com.
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