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(回答先: 日韓核武装で北朝鮮に対抗 米シンクタンクが論文 投稿者 倉田佳典 日時 2003 年 1 月 07 日 18:19:35)
Options for Dealing with North Korea
by Ted Galen Carpenter
Ted Galen Carpenter is vice president for defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato
Institute and the author or editor of 14 books on international affairs, including Peace &
Freedom: Foreign Policy for a Constitutional Republic.
Executive Summary
North Korea's recent actions in violation of the clear intent of the agreement it signed in 1994 to
freeze its nuclear program have ignited a crisis in northeast Asia. Unfortunately, all of the
frequently discussed options for dealing with this crisis have major drawbacks.
One option would be to pursue the same strategy embodied in the 1994 agreement: bribe
North Korea to give up its nuclear ambitions. Given the failure of bribery in the past, however,
there is little reason to assume that sweetening the bribe would induce Pyongyang to honor the
commitments that it is already violating. A new round of cheating would be likely.
A second option would be to launch preemptive military strikes against North Korea's nuclear
installations. But such a strategy would be profoundly dangerous. Military coercion could trigger
a general war on the Korean peninsula. Indeed, if U.S. and Chinese intelligence sources are
correct, North Korea may already possess a small number of nuclear weapons, which would
make a U.S. preemptive strike especially risky.
A third option is to pressure North Korea to honor its commitments by imposing new economic
sanctions. Since North Korea is already one of the most economically isolated countries in the
world, however, sanctions are unlikely to dissuade Pyongyang from pursuing a nuclear
weapons program.
Washington should consider another approach. It should inform North Korea that, unless it
abandons its nuclear program, the United States will encourage South Korea and Japan to
make their own decisions about also going nuclear. That prospect might well cause the North
to reconsider and keep the region nonnuclear. Even if it does not do so, a nuclear balance of
power in northeast Asia might emerge instead of a North Korean nuclear monopoly.
The crisis illustrates the folly of Washington's insistence on maintaining a military presence in
East Asia. In a normal international system, North Korea's neighborsﾑSouth Korea, Japan,
China, and Russiaﾑwould have to worry the most about Pyongyang's nuclear ambitions and
would take the lead in formulating policies to deal with them.
http://www.cato.org/pubs/fpbriefs/fpb-073es.html
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