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★阿修羅♪
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●時事通信の速報サイトに下記のような物騒なニュースが登場しました。
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時事通信・速報
http://www.jiji.com/cgi-bin/content.cgi?content=030211144240X065&genre=int
2003/02/11−14:42
衝突初日の死傷者１００万人＝米軍準機関紙が有事シナリオ
【ソウル１１日時事】米軍準機関紙スターズ・アンド・ストライプス（電子版）は
１１日までに、在韓米軍関係者らの話を引用し、核問題をめぐり対立が高まる米国と
北朝鮮が軍事 衝突した場合、北朝鮮の大砲やミサイルで２４時間以内にソウルで
１００万人の死傷者が出るとの有事シナリオを掲載した。
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●さっそく『Stars and Stripes』（http://www.estripes.com/）で
元記事を探したのですが、「11日までに〜掲載した」という時事通信報道
にもかかわらず、そういう記事は見つかりませんでした……。
●これは時事通信のデマなのだろうか、などと不信に思いながら
過去記事ならグーグルで引っかかるかも知れないと考えて、
念のために「Stars and Stripes korea」で検索してみると
下記のURLで９日付けの『Stars and Stripes』の
「N. Korea attack on South would be lethal 」という記事がみつかりました。
● ……というわけで、上記の時事の報道には少なくともウソが１箇所
あることが判明しました。つまり「11日までに〜掲載した」というのは
事実とは異なっており、「９日に掲載した」と報じればよかったわけです。
ところがそれだと２日遅れのネタになるので、たぶんハッタリで
「11日までに掲載した」などという苦しい言い訳を書いたのでしょう。
●念のために韓国の新聞（日本語で読める中央日報、東亜日報、朝鮮日報）を
チェックしてみたところ、朝鮮日報だけに、『星条旗』紙の記事を紹介した
報道が出ていました。
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朝鮮日報
http://japanese.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2003/02/10/20030210000046.html
2003.02.10(月) 18:47
米星条紙「韓半島戦争時は首都圏で1日100万人が死傷」
「休戦ラインに密集した朝鮮民主主義人民共和国（北朝鮮）の大砲とミサイル30〜50万発が数時間内にソウルに降りかかる。生物学弾道または化学弾頭を搭載したスカッド・ミサイル が釜山（プサン）、浦項（ポハン）、大邱（テグ）に落ち、24時間 内にソウルだけで100万人もの死傷者が発生する」。
「平壌(ピョンヤン)など北朝鮮の主要都市は米国の空母『キティー・ホーク』などから発進した爆撃機の爆撃を受け、焦土化 する。ソウルまで推し進めてきた北朝鮮地上軍は、米国本土から送られた米軍70万人と予備軍など韓国軍300万人によっ て、30〜90日後には完全に壊滅される」。
米国の軍事専門紙「星条」は9日、北朝鮮の核開発で緊張が高まっている韓半島の仮想戦争シナリオを紹介し、「南北双方とも、惨い犠牲を払った後、結局韓米同盟軍が勝利するだろう」と報じた。
同紙は米ジョンホプキンス大学のドン・オバドーファー教授、ドナルド・グレッグ元駐韓大使、ピーター・ブルックス元国防部 副次官補など、韓半島専門家の話を引用、北朝鮮が挑発する場合、韓半島では莫大な数の民間人が犠牲となり、すべての 産業施設が破壊されるはずだと、その危険性を警告した。
北朝鮮は戦争初期、火力をソウルなど大都市に集中するはずであり、ソウルの空には30〜50万の砲弾が雨霰のごとく降りかかるはずだと、スティーブン・オーティグ駐韓米軍スポークスマンが述べたと、同紙は報じた。
グレッグ元大使は「戦争初期、24時間内に莫大な数の民間人死傷者が発生するはず」と予想した。ブルックス元次官補も 「韓半島は数時間内に修羅場の地獄と化するだろう」と述べ た。
北朝鮮側も莫大な被害を負う見通しだ。戦争が勃発すれば、韓国軍は北朝鮮軍を阻止するため、空母、烏山（オサン）空軍 基地、日本内の米軍基地などから爆撃機を発進させ、北朝鮮全域を焦土化させるはずだと、同紙は報じた。
ジョージア大学工大のペイリンワン教授は「米軍の火力は北朝鮮を石器時代に逆戻りさせる可能性がある」と述べた。
トーマス・ロビンソン元ジョージア大学国家安保担当教授は「北朝鮮の兵器は古いため90日を越えない見通しだが、その間、莫大な破壊と殺戮が行われるなど、惨い時間が続くはず」と予想した。
金旻九（キム・ミング）記者
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●『星条旗』紙（ウェブ版）に９日に報じられた記事は原文のまま転載しておきます。
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Stars and Stripes
http://www.stripes.osd.mil/article.asp?section=104&article=12438&archive=true
N. Korea attack on South would be lethal
By Franklin Fisher, Stars and Stripes
Pacific edition, Sunday, February 9, 2003
SEOUL -- The Korean peninsula is a well-worn chessboard scarred by a half-century of war and tension.
But this time, analysts warn, the end game could be new and deadly.
“This is hair-trigger stuff,” said longtime Korea observer and expert Don Oberdorfer, author of “The Two Koreas.” “I don't like it.”
Oberdorfer said he's troubled by recent messages released by the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea's propaganda outlet. Some were attributed to foreign ministry spokesmen or said “the KNCA is authorized to state…”
“Those aren't typical propaganda statements,” Oberdorfer said to Stars and Stripes. “Those come from the highest levels in North Korea” and are intended to send serious messages “to … our government and other governments.”
Among the messages, he said, North Korea “would not stand by for the threat of pre-emptive action against their facilities.”
If a conflict did escalate, most analysts agreed, North Korea almost certainly would lose to the better-armed, better-equipped and better-trained U.S. forces -- but not before it wreaked havoc.
U.S. Forces Korea and others estimate massive casualties in and around Seoul -- up to 1 million in the first 24 hours alone -- even calling South Korea's capital “the kill box.”
More than 21 million civilians are in the Seoul metropolitan area. At about 50 miles from the Demilitarized Zone, they're well within North Korean artillery range.
North Korea has a vast arsenal of chemical and other mass-killer weapons, report Korea analysts, including Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“Even 24 hours of war on the Korean peninsula would be tremendously costly in civilian deaths,” said Donald P. Gregg, former CIA station chief in South Korea from 1973-75 and U.S. ambassador to Seoul from 1989-93, in an interview with Stripes.
●‘Just be a hellacious environment'
“We believe that the North Koreans will open an attack with a large artillery barrage -- massive artillery to try to penetrate our defenses,” Brig. Gen. John DeFreitas, USFK senior intelligence officer, told Stripes.
Within the first hours of an attack, an estimated 300,000 to 500,000 artillery rounds could rain down on Seoul, Stephen Oertwig, a USFK spokesman, told Stripes.
Roughly 70 percent of the North's ground forces are positioned near the DMZ, USFK has estimated.
It's believed the North has more than 13,000 cannons, rocket launchers and other artillery systems. More than 4,000 are ranged along the DMZ, many nestled inside hardened underground shelters like reinforced bunkers and tunnel networks, making it “nearly impossible” for U.S.-South Korean forces to hit them, according to unclassified USFK documents.
Others are on mobile launchers and more able to elude counter-fire.
Initial hours and days of a North Korean attack on the South “would just be a hellacious environment,” said Peter Brookes, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense for Asian and Pacific Affairs, now the Heritage Foundation's Asian studies director, in an interview with Stripes.
North Korea probably would bomb apartment complexes and other civilian targets only “in an act of desperation,” DeFreitas said. But as its ground forces invaded, “It would be very difficult for North Korea to maneuver south without killing a large number of noncombatants,” given “the urban sprawl of the Seoul area.”
Korea's geography dictates that the heaviest ground fighting would unfold in the west along a 75-mile tract from the Imjin River to the Chorwon Valley. The peninsula's eastern part is mountainous, making it tough for the North's tanks and other vehicles to maneuver east of the Chorwon Valley.
North Korea maintains the world's third-largest ground force, with 1.2 million troops on active duty and another 5 million or more in reserve forces, according to unclassified USFK documents.
That includes a special operations force of more than 100,000. They're believed to be elite, well-trained, disciplined, highly motivated and, despite the North's food shortages and other problems, in good physical condition and morale, DeFreitas said.
“Their strategy would probably be to paralyze the rear areas of South Korea as much as they can, and they'll be able to attack without warning,” said Richard Bush, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and director of its Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies, in an interview with Stripes.
In comparison, as of mid-2002, South Korea had 683,000 active-duty servicemembers and 4.5 million reservists, USFK said. Nearly 38,000 U.S. troops are stationed on the peninsula. And Pacific Command reportedly has asked for 2,000 additional troops, long- range bombers and other assets in support of the peninsula.
But even if everything arrived in the Pacific this week, unclassified Army and CIA reports given to Congress show that the sheer weight of troops and weapons overwhelmingly would favor North Korea.
The North's conventional war machine also includes massive artillery, a large missile arsenal able to hit any part of South Korea and reach Japan and beyond, more than 3,000 tanks and a submarine force of about 100, mostly midget vessels designed to mine South Korean ports and land special ops troops for commando raids, USFK has said.
●‘Bombed into the Stone Age'
If North Korea invaded, officials said, the U.S. and South Korea immediately would unleash artillery counter- battery fire and launch missiles -- all aimed at stopping the North's drive above Seoul.
U.S. Air Force fighters and other aircraft would launch from Osan and Kunsan air bases in South Korea, mainland Japan and Okinawa, also emerging from the USS Kitty Hawk or other carriers in the region. South Korean aircraft would scramble from airfields around the peninsula.
“If they want to attack and kill American GIs by significant numbers, that would mean the end of their regime … they could be bombed into the Stone Age,” said Fei Ling Wang, associate professor of international affairs at Georgia Institute of Technology, in an interview with Stripes. Wang also taught international relations and East Asia politics at West Point from 1992-93.
If a North Korean first strike were to knock out U.S. and South Korean aircraft with missiles or artillery, carrier- based aircraft could be crucial in the early stages.
But it's not going to be easy, warned another analyst.
“Sure, you can get through those barriers, but it takes time,” said Daniel Pinkston, adjunct professor of comparative national security policy at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Calif., and senior research associate at its Center for Nonproliferation Studies.
“Even though people say, ‘In the end, the North Koreans would lose' … in the end, the cost would be extremely high -- impossibly high,” said Thomas Robinson, former professor of national security at Georgetown University and now president of American Asian Research Enterprises in McLean, Va., in an interview with Stripes.
Robinson summarizes the American strategy as “tripwire and escalation.”
U.S. troops' tripwire role would be “to stand in the way of a North Korean invasion, to stand in the way enough to slow down the North Koreans” while other forces reach Korea -- “and we're talking about logistics and supply,” Robinson said.
“It takes a hell of a long time in terms of the initial very high level of destruction and war-fighting,” he said. “It takes a long time for those people -- 30 days, 60 days, 90 days. That's the big worry: that the 2nd Division would be called upon to do too many things.”
But those initial countermeasures are only part of the U.S.-South Korean response plan.
South Korea would mobilize almost 3 million personnel for military service. The United States would swell its force in South Korea to almost 700,000, including more than 120,000 Reserve and National Guard troops, according to unclassified USFK documents.
Several analysts say much of the North's military hardware is of 1960s Soviet-era vintage, in questionable condition.
“Their equipment is degrading,” Gregg told Stripes.
“We don't see any hard numbers as to how long” North Korea could fight a battle, DeFreitas said to Stripes, “but clearly, we believe less than 90 days.”
North Korea's air force is also aging. Some planes, such as the MiG-15 fighter, date back five decades to the Korean War, according to USFK documents. USFK analysts have predicted that U.S. and South Korean forces would be able to obtain air superiority over the North's tactical fighter jet fleet.
● The wild cards
But all such projections are based on one assumption most analysts acknowledge may rest on quicksand: That a wartime North Korea would confine itself to conventional weapons.
Brookes warned of “the high potential for a chemical weapons environment.”
The North harbors the world's third-largest stockpile of chemical weapons, which intelligence assessments put at about 5,000 metric tons of agents at its disposal, according to USFK. It's also believed to have anthrax, sarin and nerve agents, USFK reports.
“Unclassified U.S. intelligence reports,” Cordesman wrote in a Dec. 30, 2002, article for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, “state that North Korea has also mass-produced chemical weapons, including persistent nerve gases, since the 1980s.
“It is believed to have thousands of bombs, artillery shells, and multiple rocket launcher warheads that are chemically armed.”
Several analysts suggest that North Korea's knowledge of the likely outcome of armed conflict might be the chief, and most effective, deterrent.
“I would tell you,” said Retired Army Gen. John H. Tilleli Jr., commander of U.S. Forces Korea from July 1996 to December 1999, “as someone who served there for a long period as the CINC, that I am very hopeful that we will never come to a conflict on the peninsula because … I believe that conflict and crisis is probably the last thing that anyone who serves there wants.”
-- T.D. Flack and Jeremy Kirk contributed to this report.
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題名には必ず「阿修羅さんへ」と記述してください。