［アテネ／ブリュッセル　９日　ロイター］　ギリシャの債務問題への懸念が強まる中、大手格付け会社が動いた。スタンダード・アンド・プアーズ（Ｓ＆Ｐ）は９日、ギリシャの格付けを「ＢＢマイナス」から２段階引き下げ「Ｂ」にした。ギリシャの債務再編リスクが一段と高まっていることが理由。格付けウオッチ・ネガティブを継続するとし、さらなる格下げの可能性を示唆した。

　ムーディーズ・インベスターズ・サービスも、ギリシャの債務再編の可能性をめぐる懸念から、ソブリン信用格付け「Ｂ１」を引き下げ方向で見直すと表明した。ギリシャの債務水準が持続可能でないと判断された場合、格付けを数ノッチ下げる可能性があるとした。

　フィッチ・レーティングスはギリシャを「ＢＢプラス」から「Ｂ」、もしくは「Ｂマイナス」に引き下げる意向と独紙が報じた。

　ギリシャは昨年、欧州連合（ＥＵ）／国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）の支援を受けてからも、歳入低迷と深刻なリセッション（景気後退）に苦しんでおり、同国が債務再編を迫られるとの観測が強まっていた。

　前週末６日夜、ドイツ、フランスなどユーロ圏主要国の財務相やトリシェ欧州中央銀行（ＥＣＢ）総裁らが急きょルクセンブルクに集まった。ユーログループ（ユーロ圏非公式財務相会合）のユンケル議長は、会合終了後、ギリシャに追加的支援措置が必要とのコンセンサスがあると述べた。格付け会社はこれに反応した格好だ。

　Ｓ＆Ｐの「Ｂ」格付けは、パキスタンの１ノッチ上。市場では、リスク回避の動きが強まり、欧州銀行株が売られ、ユーロも下落した。

　Ｓ＆Ｐは「ギリシャは、過去に発行された政府債を含め、債務再編に向けた措置をとるリスクが高まっているとみられる」と指摘。

　対ギリシャ支援の条件緩和に向けた圧力が高まっていることを踏まえると、ユーロ圏諸国は民間のギリシャ国債保有者に償還期限の延長を求める可能性があり、これが格下げ決定につながったとした。

　さら、ギリシャの債務負担が持続可能な水準に回復するには、元本の５０％、もしくはそれ以上が削減されなければならない可能性があるとの見解も示した。

　アナリストは、Ｓ＆Ｐの格付け引き下げは同国の銀行に影響を及ぼすとみている。カッパ証券のアナリスト、ニコス・ガロウシス氏は「今後銀行の格付け引き下げも考えられることから、銀行は他の業種よりも影響を受けやすい」と指摘した。

　ギリシャ政府は格付け機関による格下げをこれまでも批判をしてきたが、今回のＳ＆Ｐの決定も批判。

　財務省は「格付けの決定は、客観的なデータ、政策担当者の発表、および経済が直面している状況に対する現実的なアセスメントに基づいて行われるべきで、市場でのうわさや報道に基づいて行われるべきではない」との声明を発表。「単にうわさに基づき決定が行われた場合、その有効性には大きな疑念が伴う」とした。

© Thomson Reuters 2011 All rights reserved.

 先に行われたＦＯＭＣ（米連邦公開市場委員会）では、「追加的量的緩和政策（ＱＥ２）」を予定どおりに６月で終了することは、合意がなされました。
 ですが、ＦＲＢは引き続き、これまでに買い込んだ債券類を保有し続け、緩和的なスタンスを崩さないことも明言しました。
 下のグラフはＦＲＢの準備残高であり、バランスシート上の債券類の「在庫」状況を示しています。

 ご覧のように、在庫はぜんぜん減っていません。
 つまり、ＦＲＢが流動性で市場をジャブジャブにしている状況には何ら変化がないのです。
 そうである以上、行き場のない流動性がコモディティに再び戻って来る可能性も十分にあると思います。

Ben S. Bernanke, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Photographer: Brendan Hoffman/Bloomberg
Ben S. Bernanke’s $600 billion strike against deflation is paying off, as stock and debt markets rise, bank lending grows and economists forecast faster growth.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 13.5 percent since the Federal Reserve chairman announced on Nov. 3 the plan to buy Treasuries through its so-called quantitative easing policy. Government bond yields show investors expect consumer prices to rise in line with historical averages. The riskiest companies are obtaining credit at the cheapest borrowing costs ever and Fed data show that commercial and industrial loans outstanding are rising for the first time since 2008.
“Looking at market indicators, you have to be convinced it’s been a success,” said Bradley Tank, chief investment officer for fixed-income in Chicago at Neuberger Berman Fixed Income LLC, which oversees about $83 billion. “When you get into periods of aggressive central bank easing, and we’re clearly in the most aggressive period of easing that we’ve ever seen, the markets tend to lead the real economy.”
The Fed said last month it won’t need to extend the $600 billion buying program beyond its scheduled end next month. Payrolls expanded by 244,000 in April, the biggest gain since May 2010, after a revised 221,000 increase the prior month, the Labor Department said May 6. The jobless rate climbed to 9 percent, the first increase since November, a separate survey of households showed.
‘Stopped the Hemorrhaging’
“We are starting to see the impact, albeit slowly,” said Jim Sarni, managing principal in Los Angeles at Payden & Rygel, which oversees more than $55 billion in fixed-income assets. “The unemployment rate has slowly started to come down. We have a long way to go, but at least it stopped the hemorrhaging.”
Bernanke’s quantitative easing program, dubbed QE2 by analysts and investors because it followed an earlier round of $1.7 trillion in bond purchases in 2009 and the first quarter of 2010, was criticized by officials around the world.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that the policy would foster financial instability and asset bubbles. Six days after the Fed suggested at its Sept. 21 meeting that it was ready to start buying Treasuries, Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said governments were engaging in a “currency war.” German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble called the asset- purchase program “clueless” on Nov. 5 and suggested it was designed to erode the value of the U.S. dollar.
Fighting Deflation
Back in November, the biggest concern for the Fed was preventing a general decline in prices, which can paralyze an economy by hindering investment, as the jobless rate held at 9.5 percent or higher for 14 months. Core consumer prices rose 0.6 percent in October from a year earlier, the smallest gain since records began in 1958, government data at the time showed.
“Measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate” of promoting full employment and containing consumer prices gains, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee said in a Nov. 3 statement.
Since reaching a 20-month low of 2.18 percent in August, a bond market measure of inflation expectations the Fed uses to help determine monetary policy has risen to 2.87 percent. The five-year forward breakeven rate projects what consumer price increases may be beginning in 2016, smoothing blips in inflation expectations from swings in oil prices and other temporary events.
Controlling Inflation
The gauge is down from 3.28 percent in December even with energy and food costs reaching record highs in a sign that investors expect Bernanke will be able to withdraw the unprecedented stimulus before inflation gets out of hand. The current level compares with the average of 2.71 percent in the five years before credit markets seized up in 2008. The core inflation rate has increased to 1.2 percent.
“We’ve seen a bit of a lift in breakeven inflation rates, but it’s not dramatic,” Tank of Neuberger Berman said.
The Fed’s policy of pumping cash into the financial markets risks longer term damage, according to Bruce Bittles, chief investment strategist at Milwaukee-based Robert W. Baird & Co., which oversees $85 billion. He compared the Fed’s current policy to the one it adopted following recession of 2001-2002, when policy makers slashed its target rate to 1 percent in 2003 to spark the housing market and the economy.
“It was a failure,” Bittles said. “I don’t think it’s very healthy to artificially boost stock prices. What are the long-term consequences of that? We don’t know. The Fed did this with housing back in the last decade, and the unintended consequences were a disaster.”
Dollar Depreciation
QE2 has contributed to an 11.9 percent decline since August in the dollar based on Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, which measure its performance against nine of the most-traded currencies in the world, including the euro, yen and pound.
Gold and silver reached records in April as investors sought to hedge financial assets against the weakening dollar and accelerating inflation. Gold advanced 25.8 percent in the past year, while silver more than doubled as investors increased their holdings in exchange-traded products to a record 15,518 metric tons on April 26.
Rising commodities may be restraining the economy. The Commerce Department said April 28 that the gross domestic product rose at a 1.8 percent annual rate in the first quarter after a 3.1 percent pace in the final three months of 2010. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index fell to minus 46.2 in the week ended May 1, the lowest level since the end of March, as the highest gasoline prices in almost three years soured Americans’ views of the buying climate.
‘Fed’s Ventilator’
“What’s important for people to understand is the Fed is simply stepping in to create some credit in a situation where the banking system apparently is unable to create credit,” said Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust Corp. in Chicago. “The patient right now is incapable of breathing on its own, and it needs the help of the Fed’s ventilator.”
Credit provided by the Fed, commercial lenders, savings and loans, and credit unions increased 1.67 percent in the last three months of 2010, according to a Northern Trust report. That compares with a long-term average of 4.58 percent since 1953. Treasury yields may fall after QE2 ends as investors seek to protect themselves from a worsening economy, Kasriel said.
Yields on 10-year Treasuries, which are a benchmark for everything from home mortgages to corporate bonds, have fallen to 3.16 percent from this year’s high of 3.74 percent on Feb. 8, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader prices. Treasuries of all maturities have returned 1.76 percent this year, while corporate bonds have gained 4.1 percent, including reinvested interest, Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes show.
‘Improving Gradually’
In deciding to end QE2 as scheduled in June policy makers are betting that economy will rebound. The median estimate of 73 economists surveyed by Bloomberg is for GDP to exceed 3 percent in the remaining three quarters of the year.
“The labor market is improving gradually,” Bernanke said at a press conference after the Fed’s two-day meeting ended April 27. “The longer it goes on, the more confident we are.”
Bernanke said the Fed would initially hold its balance sheet, currently with $2.723 trillion in assets, steady after completing the purchases by reinvesting the proceeds of maturing Treasuries and mortgage bonds it during QE1.
The Fed has bought about $470 billion of government debt under the program, said David Ader, head of government bond strategy at Stamford, Connecticut-based CRT Capital Group LLC. That money has encouraged investors to wade into riskier assets.
Record Pace
Speculative-grade companies have sold $130.7 billion of junk bonds this year, compared with $106.3 billion at this time last year, when sales set a record $287.6 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Yields on debt rated below Baa3 by Moody’s Investors Service and less than BBB- at S&P average 7.23 percent, down from 8.88 percent a year ago and 14.7 percent in 2009, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes.
Banks eased lending terms in the first quarter as they forecast improvement in the U.S. economy and companies sought more loans, a Fed survey released this week of loan officers at 55 domestic banks and 22 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks conducted from March 29 to April 12 showed.
Fifty-five percent of domestic banks surveyed reported improvements in the credit quality of large and middle-sized loan applicants, the Fed said. About 35 percent reported improvements in small firms, according to the survey.
Commercial and industrial loans totaled $1.25 trillion as of April 20, according to the Fed. While that’s down from the peak of $1.62 trillion in October 2008, it’s up from last year’s low of $1.21 trillion in September, marking the longest sustained increase since 2008.
Household credit limits rose about $30 billion in the first three months of this year from the previous period, the first increase since the third quarter of 2008, the New York Fed Bank said May 9 in a report. Foreclosures declined 17.7 percent and bankruptcies fell 13.3 percent.
QE2 “slowed the pace of deleveraging, and it clearly helped to mitigate the risk of deflation,” said William Cunningham, co-head of global active fixed income in Boston at State Street Global Advisors, which oversees $2.1 trillion. “It had a positive impact on net.”
To contact the reporter on this story: John Detrixhe in New York at jdetrixhe1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net

　年中行事のように繰り返される米国の債務上限問題だが、年を追うごとに上限引き上げが難航している。政府側はデフォルトの可能性を指摘し、一刻も早い対応を議会側に求めるが、オオカミ少年的な受け止め方をされているのも事実。市場も反応せず、静観の構え。今年は14.3兆ドルの法的な債務上限に5月16日にも達する見込みだが、すぐ資金不足に陥る恐れはない。

　先週、財務省は債務上限引き上げの期限として、8月2日を議会に提示した。資産売却など非常手段を用いれば、その後も数ヶ月は引き上げせずに持ちこたえられるが、行き詰まり状態が長引くと投資家の不信感も徐々に高まる。そのため、恒例の土壇場決着が予想されるが、ここまでの債務拡大や、政治的な対決色が強まった事態は稀なので、不測の事態が起こる可能性も。

　財務省が一連の調達を終え、現行の債務上限に達した後、支払いに毎月1250億ドルの不足が生じるため、年間1.5兆ドル程度の上限引き上げが必要。8月初旬までは、政府がＦＲＢに持つ預金や特別目的の借入プログラムで調達した資金の一般会計への転用でしのぎ、危機を避ける。ガイトナー財務長官は、こうした策も尽きれば、給与、社会保障費、医療費、退職年金から失業給付、利払いまで止まると議会に警告を発している。

　一部でも支払い不履行が発生すると、調達金利が上昇する懸念がある。政府は、2011年後半に4050億ドルの調達を予定しているため、少しでも金利が上昇すれば大きな負担増をもたらす。しかし共和党は、金利の支払いを優先すれば、他の支払いに不履行が生じても、投資家の信認はつなぎとめられると主張。一方財務省は、どんな支払いでも滞れば、危機を招くとの立場だ。

　金利面では、過去の経験則からか市場は反応していない。1995-96年にクリントン政権と議会共和党が激しく対立した時は、0.5％程度のリスクプレミアムが発生したが、2005-06年に紛糾した際には、金利上昇は見られなかった。しかし今回は、世界的に国家の債務問題が深刻化しているため、期限迄に合意できなかった場合の市場への影響は予断を許さない。時間稼ぎではない歳出削減への抜本的な対策が必要になる。

　しかし、来年に控える大統領選挙が超党派の合意をより難しくしている。医療保険費や税の改革を含む本格的な財政再建策は、来年の選挙の重要な争点となるため、8月までの短期間で議論するのは不可能に等しい。従って、包括的ではない、部分的な合意で折り合えるか否かがカギとなる。この点では、政府、民主党も共和党も違いはない。しかし、歳出の歯止めにこだわる共和党が、歳出にGDPの一定割合で制限を設けようとするのに対し、増税も視野に入れる政府や民主党は、財政赤字のGDP比で制限を設けようとするなど細部には重要な違いがある。また、両派とも陣営内の反対派を抑えるために安易な妥協は許されない。

　オバマ大統領の意を受けたバイデン副大統領と議会指導部の協議が始まり、その行方が注目される。合意に向けては、政権から債務上限引き上げ幅や財政赤字削減策について詳細な計画の提示が求められる。デフォルトは許されないので、いずれ合意するとの冷めた見方も可能だが、野放図な赤字拡大を問題視し、債務上限に近づく度に財政健全化への議論が行われる意義も認めたい。ただ大統領選を控えて、ブッシュ減税の延長のように両派にとって痛みのない妥協にしてはならない。（了）
　

　
　
増谷栄一のアメリカ経済情勢ファイルトップ |
米4月雇用、24.4万人増＝民間部門は26.8万人増
2011/05/07 (土) 21:53

−失業率、9％に上昇＝就労希望者増えて−

【2011年5月7(土)】　−　米労働省が6日発表した4月の新規雇用者数（非農業部門で軍人除く、季節調整済み）は、前月比24万4000人の純増と、前月（3月）の同22万1000人増を上回り、3カ月連続で20万人超の堅調な伸びとなった。また、市場予想の同17万5000人増を大幅に上回り、サプライズとなった。

　ただ、失業率は前月の8.8％から9％に上昇（悪化）しており、失業率を低下させるには依然、不十分との慎重な見方も少なくない。

　これは、人口の自然増を吸収して失業率の上昇を食い止めるために必要な新規雇用者数の月平均増加数12万5000人を3カ月連続で上回っているものの、失業率をかなり低下させるには30万人増、失業率が2013年末までに6％の水準に戻るには月平均40万人増が必要になるといわれるが、そこまでの力強い回復にはまだ到達していないからだ。

　しかし、前2カ月（2、3月）のデータが上方改定されたのは明るい材料だ。3月は前回発表時の21万6000人増から今回の発表では22万1000人増に、また、2月も19万4000人増から23万5000人増へと、この2カ月で計4万6000人の大幅上方改定となっている。

　今回、失業率は9％に上昇したわけだが、失業率の上昇は前月の失業率の低下とは反対に、これまで就職探しをあきらめていた労働者が景気回復に刺激されて再び雇用市場に戻り仕事を探し始めたためで、内容的には明るいといえる。

　これは、就職探しをあきらめている労働者は、失業者として分類されないが、働く意思をもって仕事を探すようになれば失業者として分類されるため、見かけの失業者数が増加し、失業率も再び上昇し始めるからだ。

■NY連銀総裁、依然慎重な見方＝製造・サービス業の改善評価も

　今回の雇用統計発表を受けて、6日のニューヨーク株式市場では、新規雇用者数が3カ月連続で20万人超となったほか、民間部門の新規雇用者数が前月比26万8000人増と、5年ぶりの大幅増となったことから、雇用市場は拡大局面に転換したとの見方が強まり、株価は急伸した。

　雇用統計発表前の先週の大半は、企業決算の内容が悪かったため、米景気の鈍化懸念が高まり、株価の下落が続いていたものの、統計発表後は景気懸念を材料にした株価下落に歯止めがかかり、この日のダウ平均株価指数は前日比54.57ドル（0.4％）高の1万2638.74ドルで引けた。しかし、先週1週間のダウ平均は、ギリシャがユーロ離脱を検討しているとの一部報道（独誌スピーゲル）もあり、前週比1.3％安と、完全に値を戻すまでには至らなかった。

　FRB（米連邦準備制度理事会）傘下のニューヨーク連銀のウィリアム・ダドリー総裁は前月の雇用統計発表当時、今後、新規雇用者数は月30万人に伸びが加速しても、依然、雇用の回復は危うい状況には変わりはなく、来年末に雇用市場が低調になる可能性があると指摘していたように、今回の雇用統計の結果を受けてもFRBでは慎重論は根強い。

　その証拠に、FRBは4月27日のFOMC（連邦公開市場委員会）会合後に発表した声明文で、「景気は緩やかなペースで回復を続け、雇用市場も緩やかに改善している」と、前回3月の会合時の「足元の景気は強まっている」との強気の見方に転換したあとも楽観的な見通しを維持したが、超低金利政策の現状維持を全員一致で決めている。

　特に、インフレは依然抑制されており、雇用市場も緩やかに改善しているものの、失業率は依然高水準で、企業の設備稼働率も低水準にあるため、景気回復のペースを一段と強めるため、"QE（Quantitative Easing）2"と呼ばれる、6月末で期限切れとなる6000億ドル（約49兆2000億円）の追加国債買い取りは早期に中止せず、予定通り6月末まで続けるとしている。また、QE2と同時に実施している"QE Lite"と呼ばれる、2500億‐3000億ドル（約20.5兆‐24.6兆円）と呼ばれる長期国債への再投資も6月末以降も継続する方針を示している。

　ただ、ダドリー総裁は6日、記者団に対し、今回の4月の雇用統計の結果について、従来と異なり、製造業が世界景気の回復に伴い、ここ1年間で強い伸びを示しており、また、サービス産業の雇用も強くなってきていることは高く評価できる、と述べている。

　また、同総裁は失業率の上昇についても、9％は高水準だが、昨年11月の9.8％から0.8％ポイントも低下しているのは統計的に見ても速いペースで改善が進んでいる、と一応の評価を示している。

　しかし、その一方で、同総裁は原油などのコモディティ価格は依然高水準で、住宅価格も一段と低迷しており、これらの要因で個人消費や住宅購入の意欲が後退するリスクは引き続きあるとし、政府も短期的に財政出を削減する一方で増税に向かうリスクもあるとして、慎重な見方は変えていない。

■民間部門、26.8万人増＝3月は23.1万人増

　今回の雇用統計の内訳を見ると、政府部門は前月比2万4000人減となったものの、民間部門は前月比26万8000人増と、2006年2月以来5年2カ月ぶりの大幅増となった。

　これで、民間部門は2月の同26万1000人増と3月の同23万1000人増に続いて、3カ月連続で20万人超の大幅増となった。

　民間部門の4月までの過去1年間（2009年5月-2011年4月）の雇用増加数は166万9000人、月平均で16万7000人増となるが、それと比べても2倍近い伸び（1.6倍）だ。

　また、景気が2番底に向かわないためには、民間部門だけで月平均10万人増、さらに、景気回復が持続安定的に進むためには、15万人増が必要と見られているが、2、3、4月と3カ月連続で15万人増を上回ったことは特筆できる。

■失業率、9％＝0.2％ポイント悪化

　4月の失業率は9.0％と、2009年3月以来2年ぶりの低水準となった前月の8.8％から0.2％ポイント悪化した。

　失業率は1月まで9％台を21カ月連続で記録し、1982‐1983年のリセッションの19カ月連続の過去最長記録を更新中だったが、2月は8.9％、3月も8.8％と、8％台後半だが、2カ月連続で最悪の状況は脱していた。

　しかし、エコノミストは、今回の失業率の上昇は、これまで就職探しをあきらめて雇用市場から離れていた労働者が4月に入って仕事を探し始めたためと見ており、9％への失業率の上昇は割り引いて見る必要があるとしている。

　それでも今年の夏までは、仕事を探し始める労働者が増えると見られており、その大半が失業者として計算されるため、失業率は上昇傾向をたどらざるを得ないと見ている。

　また、失業率は経済成長率の見通しとも密接な関係がある。商務省が4月28日に発表した第1四半期（1-3月）GDP成長率（季節調整済み、前期比年率換算）の速報値は＋1.8％と、前期（2010年10‐12月）の＋3.1％から伸びが大幅に鈍化した。

　ただ、これは1‐2月に米東部・中西部を襲った大吹雪による個人消費などへの悪影響や軍事費支出の予想以上の大幅減少などによる一過性と見られており、第2四半期（4-6月）には＋3.5％と、前期から伸びが加速すると見られている。

　しかし、GDP成長率は＋3％程度では人口の自然増を吸収して失業率の上昇を食い止めるのが精一杯で、失業率を1％ポイント引き下げるためには＋5％の成長率が必要といわれる。それだけに、失業率は当面、9％近い水準が続くと予想されている。

■長期失業者比率、43.4％に改善

　失業状態の深刻さを示す6カ月以上（27週間）の長期失業者数は、前月の612万人から584万人に減少した。

　また、全体の失業者数は1375万人と、前月の1354万人から1.5％増加した結果、全体の失業者数に占める長期失業者の比率も43.4％と、前月の45.5％から低下、また、前年同月の45.5％も2.1％ポイント下回ったのは明るい材料だ。

　失業率が上昇したのは、分子にあたる失業者数が1374万7000人と、前月比20万5000人（1.5％）増となったのに対し、分母にあたる労働力人口が1億5342万人と、前月比1万5000人増と、ほぼ横ばいとなったためだ。

　また、4月の労働市場への参加の程度を示す労働力人口比率は64.2％と、前月と変わらず、1984年以来27年ぶりの低水準となっている。

　全体的には、1375万人の失業者数は2007年12月のリセッション前の水準の2倍で、依然高水準であることには変わりはない。これは景気回復のペースが緩慢で、原油などのコモディティ価格が高水準にあるため、民間企業の雇用意欲が低調で雇用需給がタイトになっているためだ。

■広義の失業率、15.9％に上昇

　一方、広義の失業率（狭義の失業者数に仕事を探すことをあきらめた労働者数とパート労働に変わった労働者数を加えた、いわゆる、"underemployed workers"の失業率）は15.9％と、3月の15.7％から上昇した。

　しかし、正規雇用をあきらめてやむを得ずパート労働者（involuntary part-time workers）となった数は3月の843万人から860万人と、2カ月連続で増加している。1年前の901万人を下回っているが、依然、高水準だ。

　雇用者数は、2007年12月のリセッション（景気失速）入り以降、2008年と2009年に計860万人減少し、2010年に計90万9000人の純増が見られたにすぎない。2010年は月平均7万6000人、また、今年1‐4月は月平均19万2000人に増加ペースが加速しているが、このペースで行けば元に戻すにはあと3年後の2014年夏ごろになる計算だ。

■建設業と製造業、計3.4万人増

　雇用統計の内訳は、建設業と製造業、サービス業ともに増加を維持した。建設業は前月比5000人増と、前月の同2000人増を上回った。特に、前月の数値は改定前の同1000人減から上方改定されている。

　内訳を見ると、建築業のうち、居住用は同2100人減、非居住用も同1200人減、また、「specialty trade contractors」と呼ばれる、整地などの基礎工事や電気・配管などの専門工事業者が同4800人減となったが、土木工事が同1万2700人増となって全体を押し上げている。

　製造業は前月比2万9000人増と、6カ月連続の増加となった。前月の同2万2000人増（改定前1万7000人増）を上回り、伸びが加速している。

　製造業の内訳は、食品や飲料水などの非耐久財部門が同1万人増となり、耐久財部門も1万9000人増と大幅に増加した。耐久財のうち、自動車・同部品製造は同2900人増、機械製造も5200人増となっている。

■小売業、5万7000人増＝人材派遣業は減少

　サービス産業は前月比22万4000人増と、3月の同19万4000人増（改定前19万9000人増）を上回り、伸びが加速した。

　このうち、小売業は同5万7000人増と、3月の同3200人減（改定前1万8000人増）から大幅増加に転じている。

　小売りのうち、自動車・自動車部品販売は同6900人増となった。このうち、自動車ディーラーは同4700人増。このほか、衣料品・アクセサリーが同6100人増、百貨店にスーパーなど量販店を加えた一般小売販売が同2万7400人増（うち、百貨店は9400人増）、建材・園芸店も同5600人増、家電も同5600人増、ヘルス・パーソナルケアも同2100人増となった。

　また、これまでサービス産業を支えてきた専門・ビジネスサービス業も同5万1000人増と、3月の同8万6000人増（改定前7万8000人増）を下回ったものの、9カ月連続の増加となっている。

　このうち、将来の雇用の先行指標となる人材派遣業は同2300人減と、3月の同3万4400人増（改定前2万9000人増）から3カ月ぶりに減少に転じた。

　金融サービス業（不動産販売も含む）は同4000人増と、3月の同5000人増（改定前6000人増）に続いて2カ月連続の増加となった。このうち、クレジット仲介業は同1800人減となったが、不動産・リース業が同7200人増と、大幅に増加した。

■政府部門、2.4万人減＝6カ月連続減少

　また、政府部門は前月比2万4000人減となり、3月の同1万人減に続いて6カ月連続の減少となった。内訳は、連邦政府部門は同2000人減だったのに対し、州政府や地方自治体は合計で同2万2000人減と、大幅減少となっている。

　特に、地方自治体は、同1万4000人減となったが、このうち、教員が同4700人減と、大幅減少となっている。予算削減の影響を受けて地方自治体の雇用は減少している。

■1時間当たり賃金、実質マイナス＝労働時間は横ばい

　週平均労働時間（2010年1月から全従業員のデータが導入）は前月比横ばいの34.3時間となった。このうち、製造業の週平均労働時間も横ばいの40.4時間、残業時間は同0.1時間（6分）増の3.3時間となっている。

　また、1時間当たり平均賃金（全従業員のデータ）も同0.1％（3セント）増の22.95ドルと、増加傾向が続いている。しかし、前年比では1.9％増で、インフレ率（3月消費者物価指数（CPI）は前年比＋2.7％）を考慮すると実質マイナスで個人消費の抑制要因となっている。　（了）

mod=WSJ_markets_article_liveupdate
By LIZ MOYER

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating its

Goldman Sachs Execution and Clearing division's role as clearing broker for an unnamed SEC-

registered broker dealer.

The agency has orally advised Goldman it intends to bring aiding and abetting, civil fraud and

supervision-related charges against the Goldman operation related to its clearing services for

this broker-dealer, it added in its quarterly regulatory filing.

The CFTC, Goldman said, is basing these charges on allegations the Wall Street giant knew or

should have known that the client's subaccounts at Goldman were accounts belonging to

customers of the broker-dealer and not the broker-dealer's own accounts. The filing says

Goldman is cooperating with the investigations.

The Justice Department is also reviewing matters similar to a European Commission

investigation initiated last month into the supply of data related to credit default swaps and

fee arrangements for clearing of credit default swaps, including potential anti-competitive

practices, the filing said.

New government probes into its activities come after a rough year for Goldman on the public

relations front. Last year it paid $550 million―the biggest SEC fine ever paid by a Wall

Street bank―to settle charges it misled customers in the sale of a complex mortgage

derivative. Goldman initiated an extensive review of its business practices as a result of

those allegations.

Separately, Goldman reduced its worst-case estimate for litigation losses related to products

it underwrote to $2.7 billion from $3.4 billion, according to its quarterly regulatory filing.

The firm said the estimate, which it first made in the fourth quarter, is a measure of what

are "reasonably possible" losses above and beyond what it has already set aside for

litigation.

In the filing, Goldman acknowledged press reports that a Senate investigative committee has

referred a report about banks and their underwriting activities before and during the

financial crisis to the Justice Department and the SEC for review. Goldman is featured as an

example, among other banks, in that report.

Trading, its biggest business, has waned in recent months as customers remain out of the

markets.

Goldman said its trading value at risk, a measure of how much it stands to lose on any given

day, fell to $113 million from $161 million in the first quarter last year.

And unlike some of its competitors, Goldman failed to repeat its perfect trading quarter from

last year. It lost between $25 million and $50 million in the first quarter on a single day.

It had 32 days on which it logged trading gains of $100 million or more.

Goldman Sachs also disclosed that it reached a settlement in principle in March related to

Washington Mutual securities litigation.

The investment bank was one of numerous underwriters named as a defendant in an Aug. 2008

class-action complaint alleging offering documents in connection with Washington Mutual

security offerings "failed to describe accurately the company's exposure to mortgage-related

activities in violation of the disclosure requirements of federal securities laws."

Goldman didn't disclose terms of the settlement, but said it underwrote approximately $520

million of securities to all purchasers in the offerings, excluding claims that have been

dismissed.
―Brett Philbin in New York contributed to this article.

Gold Traders Are Only Winners Amid 18% Inflation: William Pesek　

May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Nguyen Van Giau sighs audibly and shifts in his chair when I ask him the dreaded question: Is Vietnam losing its inflation battle?

It’s one the country’s central bank governor can barely go an hour without fielding these days. Such is life in a nation where consumer prices climbed almost 18 percent in April from a year earlier.

Giau’s assurances that he’s committed to taming inflation aren’t resonating with Vietnam’s 87 million people. The steady erosion of the currency has driven locals to hoard gold as the dollar grows shaky. Capital controls don’t stop households from swapping growing piles of dong for hard assets.

Vietnam’s $102 billion economy is just one example of an epic inflation fight that Asia might lose if central banks don’t act more aggressively. Rather than yanking away the proverbial punchbowl, they are keeping the monetary taps open for too long and imperiling Asia’s outlook. Asia needs less talking about these risks, and more doing.

The story last week was of Asia going on the defensive. Interest rates went up in India, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam and policy makers pledged additional moves should events warrant them. Well, they do and timidity is setting Asia up for an inevitable bust after the impressive boom of recent years.

Part of the problem is that Asia has internalized the Federal Reserve’s core inflation philosophy. From Hanoi to Beijing, policy makers have been reluctant to tighten credit on the assumption that inflation is being unduly driven by a short- term rise in food and energy costs, while other prices are stable.

Home Grown

There are now indications that inflation isn’t just being imported, but increasingly generated domestically. Strong domestic demand is placing increased pressure on prices that won’t go away even if food and energy inflation moderates.

That puts the onus on central banks to assume the role of party pooper. Granted, it’s an incredibly difficult balancing act. Clamp down too much on credit, and officials might derail Asia’s rapid growth and rising living standards. Also, each rate increase risks courting even more hot money. It’s a supreme paradox of modern central banking: the more you act to pull liquidity out of the domestic banking system, the greater the influx of cash from overseas.

Poverty is another complication. If the Bank of Korea tightens the vise too much, it won’t toss millions into destitution. The same can’t be said of monetary policy in India, Indonesia or the Philippines. No central banker wants to be blamed for torpedoing their economy.

What Independence?

Central-bank independence has become somewhat of a misnomer in Asia since the death of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in 2008. As markets plunged and growth shriveled, bankers slashed rates and worked closely with government officials. The key isn’t to repeat Japan’s mistake of never figuring out how to restore monetary normalcy.

Fears of strangling growth have officials in Jakarta, Manila and New Delhi taking smaller steps than inflation risks require. What is politically expedient today, though, may prove economically devastating tomorrow.

Take Indonesia, a clear emerging-market favorite these days. Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution said last week that the urgency to adjust rates is “not too high” even after core inflation accelerated to 4.62 percent in April from 4.45 percent. An appreciating currency won’t be enough to keep these increases from taking on a life of their own.

Political Fallout

Inflation worries are already shaking up the political scene. In Korea, President Lee Myung Bak declared “war” on it. In China, Premier Wen Jiabao made cooling the fastest inflation since 2008 a top priority. In Singapore, it catalyzed voters to serve Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong a wake-up call over the weekend.

Lee pledged that his People’s Action Party will change the way it governs after returning to power with the smallest electoral margin of victory for the party since Singapore’s independence in 1965. The discontent is partly about the dark side of globalization.

On one end of the wage spectrum, Singapore attracts vast pools of skilled bankers, scientists and executives whose wealth bids up prices. On the lower end, Singapore is a magnet for low- wage workers. So, middle-class wages are stagnant while prices rise. Leave it to inflation pressures to shake up politically stable Singapore.

And then there’s Vietnam, a cautionary tale among developing economies. It exudes potential, and its natural resources, demographics and low-cost labor are attracting the world’s attention. And yet Vietnam has too much of a good thing on its hands: too much money chasing too few stable investments.

Hard Lessons

The result is potential overheating that threatens to undermine an economy that recently gained middle-income status. There’s plenty of reason to think Vietnam will get things right, and that goes for the rest of Asia, too. The key is for central banks to get to work.

In the late 1990s, Asia learned the hard way that booms must be calibrated to avoid busts. The region is now at such a juncture and bold action is needed. If Asian inflation rates follow Vietnam into double digits, the only winners will be gold speculators.

(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Hanoi at wpesek@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this column: James Greiff at jgreiff@bloomberg.net
更新日時: 2011/05/10 04:27 JST

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-09/gold-trade-is-only-winner-in-inflation-attack-commentary-by-william-pesek.html

Prices of goods imported into the U.S. rose more than forecast in April as a slumping dollar and growing economies overseas pushed up the cost of fuel and food.

The 2.2 percent increase in the import-price index followed a revised 2.6 percent gain in March, according to figures from the Labor Department today in Washington. Other reports showed distributors boosted inventories and small businesses lost confidence.

The increase in prices from overseas may put pressure on companies like Whole Foods Market Inc. (WFMI) to pass on higher costs, calling into question Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s view that the surge in commodities will have temporary effect on inflation. The report on small businesses showed the share of those surveyed who planned to raise prices held in April at the highest level in 30 months.

“While many policy makers have described recent commodity cost increases as ‘transitory,’ the reality is that even at the small business level, producers are increasingly more confident in their ability to pass on costs to customers,” Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York, said in a note to clients.

The median forecast of 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a 1.8 percent increase in import prices last month. Projections ranged from increases of 1 percent to 2.5 percent.

Compared with a year earlier, import prices increased 11 percent, exceeding the 10 percent increase projected by economists surveyed and the biggest 12-month gain in a year.
Shares Climb

Stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a third straight day, as companies including Dean Foods Co. and Fossil Inc. forecast earnings that topped analysts’ projections. The 500 Index climbed 0.4 percent to 1,352.25 at 11:43 a.m. in New York.

Confidence among small companies fell to a seven-month low in April, damped by a deteriorating outlook for the economy, a report from the National Federation of Independent Business showed. The Washington-based group’s optimism index decreased to 91.2, the lowest since September, from 91.9 the prior month. Seven of the measure’s 10 components dropped.

Small businesses planning to increase prices held at a net 24 percent of owners for a second month, according to the report.

Increasing sales are also prompting wholesalers to increase stockpiles, according to figures from the Commerce Department. Inventories climbed 1.1 percent in March as sales jumped 2.9 percent. At the current pace of sales, distributors had enough goods on hand to last 1.13 months, matching the level in June 2008 as the lowest on record.
Fuel, Food

The report on prices from overseas showed the cost of imported petroleum increased 7.2 percent from the prior month and was up 37 percent from a year earlier. Excluding all fuels, import prices climbed 4.3 percent from April 2010, matching the prior month’s 12-month increase as the biggest since October 2008.

Imported food was 1.8 percent costlier last month and was up 20 percent from a year earlier, the biggest 12-month increase since records began in 1977.

Whole Foods, the largest U.S. natural-goods grocer, says prices may continue to climb later this year, according to A.C. Gallo, president and chief operating officer of the Austin, Texas-based company. Beef, dairy, corn and soy are major among commodities experiencing inflation, he said.
Pass Through

“We have been able to pass some of them through,” Gallo said in a May 4 earnings call with analysts, referring to cost increases. “There is some uncertainty based on not quite understanding what kind of inflation we’ll be seeing in our costs and what will be able to pass through.”

Following a two-day meeting in Washington last month, Fed officials said the effect on inflation from the jump in fuel and other commodities will probably be “transitory,” according to a statement released April 27.

The officials also lowered their forecasts for U.S. growth, saying the economy is recovering at a “moderate pace,” and agreed to finish $600 billion of bond purchases on schedule in June, according to the statement.

A weakening U.S. currency has also made imported goods more expensive. The dollar fell 7.7 percent against a basket of major currencies from the beginning of the year to the end of April.

The dollar has since strengthened, gaining 2.4 percent from April 29 as commodity prices have fallen.

Today’s report showed the cost of goods from China rose 0.4 percent, while those from Japan were increased 0.3 percent. Goods from Latin America climbed 3.5 percent and those from the European Union increased 0.8 percent. Prices of Canadian imports rose 2.4 percent, and goods from Mexico advanced 2.5 percent.

The import-price index is the first of three monthly price gauges from the Labor Department. Producer prices are due May 12 and the consumer-price index on the following day. The Bloomberg survey median for those measures indicates inflation excluding volatile food and fuel expenses remains contained.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Kowalski in Washington at akowalski13@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net　

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-10/cost-of-u-s-imported-goods-in-april-climbs-more-than-economists-estimated.html

Richmond Federal Reserve President Jeffret Lacker　

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker said the central bank should turn its attention to withdrawing stimulus after completing its $600 billion bond purchase program at the end of next month.

“Barring significant unexpected developments, this should be the high-water mark for monetary stimulus in this cycle, with the focus going forward on the timing and pace of stimulus withdrawal,” Lacker said today in a speech in Arlington, Virginia.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the Federal Open Market Committee have said they will complete their bond purchase program, known as QE2 for the second round of quantitative easing, at the end of June. The central bank has yet to announce its subsequent plans. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard noted in a speech last week that monetary policy may go “on hold” to see how the economy develops.

“While timing and pace will depend upon how the economy behaves, I believe it will be important to remember the lesson of the last recovery -- namely, that inflation is capable of rising even if the level of economic activity has not returned to its pre-recession trend,” Lacker said to a gathering of northern Virginia business and community leaders.
Policy Tightening

“It may be necessary to initiate policy tightening well before the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate we would expect to see over the long run,” Lacker said. “While I don’t want to minimize the extent of lingering weakness in economic activity, we should not lose sight of the fact that the economy has been expanding at a significant pace and the fundamentals for future growth are strong right now.”

Speaking to reporters after the speech, Lacker declined to outline a timeline for the withdrawal of stimulus, saying it depends on how the economy unfolds.

“This is the point in the business cycle when the risk of losing a bit of credibility and risk of losing ground on inflation is highest,” he said. It’s “far better to act preemptively than get behind the curve on inflation and have to catch up,” he said.

Lacker said longer-term inflation expectations had risen to the top of the range he’s comfortable with.

“If you go above that range you have to really be concerned,” he said. “We’re at the very upper end of the range right now.”
Economy Added Jobs

The Labor Department said last week the economy added 244,000 jobs in April with non-government employers added 268,000 jobs, the best month for the private sector of the economy since 2006.

Other job market data remain weak, as the unemployment rate has been stuck near 9 percent or higher for 25 months. The number of people who filed for jobless benefits for the first time rose to 474,000 last week for the most new filings since August, according to a separate Labor Department report.

Speaking to reporters, Lacker said the rise in claims may be “pretty temporary,” while the April payrolls report is a “solid signal” the labor market is “definitely healing.”

Consumer confidence dropped last week to the lowest level in more than a month as rising fuel costs squeezed American household budgets. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index decreased to minus 46.2 in the week ended May 1, the lowest level since the end of March. In 2010, the index average reading was minus 45.7, showing consumer’s comfort has yet to show sustained improvement.
Spending Grew

“Consumer spending growth is likely to be somewhat restrained for a time, as households adjust to the bigger bite these higher prices take out of their take-home pay,” Lacker said. “I would be concerned if I expected substantial further price increases, but at this point, futures markets are pricing in modest declines in petroleum products. If the markets are right about that, the effect of energy prices on consumer spending should only be temporary.”

The economy grew at a 1.8 percent pace in the first quarter of 2011, according to Commerce Department data. The slowdown in growth will probably prove to be “transitory,” Bernanke said in an April 27 press conference.

In a statement before Bernanke’s press conference the FOMC unanimously agreed to complete their plan to purchase $600 billion of bonds through June to avert deflation and boost growth. They also pledged to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for an “extended period.” The Fed said in its statement that inflation from commodities would likely prove “transitory” as well.

Lacker said he agrees with this assessment.

“There are good reasons to believe this surge is temporary,” he said. “In the absence of further energy price increases, we are likely to see inflation subside to a rate closer to 1.5 percent.”

Fed presidents rotate voting on monetary policy, with Lacker, 55, voting next year. The FOMC next meets in Washington on June 21-22.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joshua Zumbrun in Arlington, Virginia at jzumbrun@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz at cwellisz@bloomberg.net

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-10/lacker-says-fed-should-plan-withdrawal-of-stimulus-after-qe2-program-ends.html

Deutsche Bank Sees Gold Rising as High as $2,000 as George Soros Pares Bet

By Rodrigo Orihuela - May 11, 2011 5:55 AM GMT+0900　

Investors including George Soros and John Paulson invested in gold as the metal surged over the past year amid a sovereign debt crisis in Europe, economic turmoil in the U.S. and civil unrest in the Middle East. Photographer: Junko Kimura/Bloomberg
YCMNet's Yoshikami on Gold, Stocks

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May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Michael Yoshikami, who oversees $1.1 billion as chief investment strategist at YCMNet Advisors in Walnut Creek, California, talks about global stocks and commodities. Yoshikami also discusses bonds, the U.S. economy, and BYD Co.'s plan to list shares on the Shenzhen exchange. He speaks from Singapore with John Dawson on Bloomberg Television's "First Up." (Source: Bloomberg)

Gold, which reached a record on May 2, may surge a further 30 percent by January as investors seek to protect themselves from “economic uncertainty,” according to Deutsche Bank AG.

“I’m bullish on gold despite its current levels,” Hal Lehr, Deutsche Bank’s managing director for cross-commodity trading, said in an interview in Buenos Aires. “It could reach $2,000 an ounce in the next eight months.”

Investors including George Soros and John Paulson invested in gold as the metal surged over the past year amid a sovereign debt crisis in Europe, economic turmoil in the U.S. and civil unrest in the Middle East. This month‘s record $1,577.57 an ounce was a sixfold gain since the precious metal’s low in August 1999.

Gold fell 1.6 percent on May 4 after the Wall Street Journal reported that Soros Fund Management LLC sold precious- metal assets. Soros’ fund held shares in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by gold, and the iShares Gold Trust at the end of 2010, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings show.

Gold rose for a third day in New York today as concern about Europe’s debt woes spurred demand for precious metals as a protection of wealth. Standard & Poor’s yesterday downgraded Greece’s credit rating for the fourth time since April 2010. Gold for June delivery rose $13.70, or 0.91 percent, to close at $1,516.9 an ounce at 1:30 p.m. on the Comex in New York.
Inflation Hedge

Bullion rose for six consecutive weeks through April 29 as the metal is seen as a hedge against inflation around the globe. Central banks in China, India and the European Union, among others, have increased interest rates in recent weeks as policymakers seek to control consumer prices with tighter monetary policy.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has kept the benchmark rate between zero percent and 0.25 percent since December 2008 and pledged to purchase $600 billion in Treasuries through June to stimulate the economy. Standard & Poor’s earlier last month revised its debt outlook for the U.S. to negative from stable.

The U.S. Treasury Department projects the government could reach its debt ceiling limit of $14.3 trillion as soon as mid- May and run out of options for avoiding default by early July.

Lehr’s so-called cross-commodity team was created by Deutsche last year to handle large investments in commodities without distorting prices with sudden inflows of cash, he said. The team focuses on investment opportunities in a portfolio of commodities, as opposed to looking at individual commodities.
Bullish on Corn

Lehr declined to offer a breakdown of all the commodities that form his portfolio, though he said he’s also bullish on corn, which has risen 92 percent in the past 12 months.

“I believe that over the next two to three years we will continue to see price levels in the $700 range although I believe the prices for this July crop will rise to over $800,” he said. “Corn crops are obviously very weather dependent and now that ethanol and biodiesel have become so important, we see strong price support for corn from bio-diesel and ethanol.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Rodrigo Orihuela in Buenos Aires at rorihuela@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Dale Crofts at dcrofts@bloomberg.net