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EU、ギリシャへの新支援策で6月にも合意の可能性  ギリシャ、新たな支援策がまとまるとの報道を否定
http://www.asyura2.com/11/hasan71/msg/737.html
投稿者 sci 日時 2011 年 5 月 10 日 22:54:21: 6WQSToHgoAVCQ
 

ギリシャ人財務相が ギリシャ人財務官僚はうそつきだ と言った
クレタ人のパラドックスの再来か
http://jp.wsj.com/World/Europe/node_234171
EU、ギリシャへの新支援策で6月にも合意の可能性=ギリシャ当局者

2011年 5月 10日 20:26 JST
 【アテネ】ギリシャは2013年にかけて必要になる資金を手当てするための約600億ユーロの新たな金融支援パッケージを早ければ6月にも得る可能性がある。ギリシャ政府の当局者が10日明らかにした。 

ギリシャのパパコンスタンティヌ財務相(アテネ、7日)

 ギリシャ政府と欧州連合(EU)、国際通貨基金(IMF)の協議に詳しいこの当局者によると、EU加盟国の財務相は16、17両日に開催する定例会合で、現在の支援パッケージの延長や、新たなローンの供与について協議する予定。

 新たな支援パッケージは、ギリシャが12年に必要になると見込まれる約270億ユーロと、13年に必要になる320億ユーロを手当てするために設計される。

 ギリシャ財務省はコメントの要請に、現実的な解決法を探るための努力を続けている、と応じた。

 先のギリシャ当局者によると、ルクセンブルクで6日に行われた初期段階の協議で、EU当局者は新金融支援パッケージの組成について協議したが、決定には至らなかった。6月のギリシャの債務の持続可能性に関する審査が終了するまで、最終的な決定は下されることはない、と当局者は語った。

 この当局者は、「6月の債務の持続可能性に関する審査が終了するまで最終決定が下ることはないとみるが、この問題は来週のEU財務相会合で集中的に協議されるだろう」と述べた。

 現在、検討されている選択肢の一つは、ギリシャの債務の償還を延長し、EU加盟国政府の救済基金である欧州金融安定ファシリティー(EFSF)へのアクセスを容認することだ。

 先の当局者によると、国有資産を担保として差し入れることが新たな覚書(MOU)に記される可能性がある。
記者: Costas Paris and Terence Roth
 
 
 http://jp.reuters.com/article/topNews/idJPJAPAN-21013220110510
ギリシャ、新たな支援策がまとまるとの報道を否定
2011年 05月 10日 17:45 JST
トップニュース
復興基本法など今週中に国会提出=菅首相
NECが11年度営業利益5割増狙う、スマートフォンを拡販
日経平均が3日ぶり反発、好業績の個別銘柄物色やトヨタ反発で
スズキの前期営業益は前年比34.7%増、アジアで四輪車販売が好調

 [アテネ 10日 ロイター] ギリシャ財務省高官は10日、同国に対する600億ユーロ(857億1000万ドル)近くの新たな支援策が来月にもまとまるとのダウ・ジョーンズ通信の報道を否定した。

 同高官はロイターに対し、「ギリシャは新たな支援策についてのいかなる協議も行っていない」とし、「新支援策の協議に関するそうした報道は事実でない」と述べた。

 ダウ・ジョーンズ通信は10日、ギリシャ政府高官の話を引用し、来月にも同国に対する総額約600億ユーロの新たな支援策がまとまる見通しだと報じた。

 同高官によると、新たな支援策は、ギリシャに必要と見込まれる追加資金として2012年分の270億ユーロと2013年分の320億ユーロをカバーし、国有不動産が担保として差し入れられる可能性があるという。

 先週末6日夜には、ドイツ、フランスなどユーロ圏主要国の財務相やトリシェ欧州中央銀行(ECB)総裁らが急きょルクセンブルクに集まった。ユーログループ(ユーロ圏財務相会合)のユンケル議長は、会合終了後、ギリシャに追加的支援措置が必要とのコンセンサスがあると述べていた

© Thomson Reuters 2011 All rights reserved.  

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01. 2011年5月11日 00:13:07: cqRnZH2CUM
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576314553638796990.html
Greece Says Audit Will Show €60 Billion Need  

By COSTAS PARIS And TERENCE ROTH

ATHENS―Greece expects that a June audit of its budgets will show that a new financial-aid package of nearly €60 billion ($86 billion) will be needed to cover its financial needs stretching into 2013, a senior Greek government official said Tuesday.

The official, with knowledge of the talks between Greece and the European Union and International Monetary Fund, said the issue of extending current packages, or arranging new loans, will be discussed at a regularly-scheduled meeting of EU finance ministers next Monday and Tuesday.
     
 
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou speaks to media after his meeting with the Greek president in Athens on Tuesday. 

Greece is projected to need around €27 billion in new assistance next year and another €32 billion in 2013.

The Greek finance ministry said when contacted for comment that efforts are underway to find a realistic solution.

"The debate that is taking place is about finding a solution that is credible, and in such a way that there is no gap in covering Greek financing needs in 2012," said a Greek finance ministry spokesperson. "But there are no specifics yet regarding the size or details of a package."

At an early round of talks in Luxembourg late Friday, senior EU officials discussed the possible construction of this new aid, but no decisions were taken. A final decision won't be made until after the results of the June audit of Greece's ability to sustain its debt, the Greek official said.

"We expect final decisions after the review of the Greek debt sustainability in June," the senior Greek official said. "But the matter will be extensively discussed at next week's EcoFin," he said, using the shorthand for EU financial ministers' meetings.

Among the options being discussed is extending Greece's current maturities and giving Greece access to the EU's government bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility.

A new memorandum of understanding may set state-owned properties as collateral, the official said.

"I expect a new set of measures for Greece which will have a strict timeframe and guarantees that it will be seen through," the senior Greek government official said.

This official said that Germany will find it difficult to convince its taxpayers to give more money to Greece after contributing to a €110 billion package from the EU and the International Monetary Fund only a year ago.

The German government prefers an extension of bond maturing in 2012 and 2013, but it might consider a combination with access to EFSF funds.

"These matters were generally discussed in Luxembourg but no decisions were taken," the Greek official said.

The possibility that Greece could default on its debt next year without more external aid has created a new emergency for European governments, the European Commission and the European Central Bank.

Last Friday's meeting in Luxembourg included the finance ministers of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Greece. Also attending were ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, European Commissioner for Economic Affairs Olli Rehn and Eurogroup President Jean-Claude Juncker.

U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne on Sunday said that EU countries will spend the next several weeks discussing ways to provide Greece with more financial aid.
More 

"I think it's inevitable that we are going to look at the Greek package and see what they can do to get through next year, but that might involve additional assistance from, for example, the euro zone," he said in an interview with BBC television.

Mr. Osborne said the chance of Greece being unable to regain access to capital markets next year has been recognized as a problem. But he said he doesn't think it is inevitable that Greece will default on its debt.

The re-emerging Greek debt crisis came after Greece failed to meet its deficit targets last year, forcing the government to impose stiffer austerity measures that would, in turn, push the economy deeper into recession. A prolonged economic contraction could dry up tax receipts and get Greece into deeper fiscal trouble.

Moody's Investors Service warned Monday of a "multi-notch" downgrade if it concludes in an upcoming review that Greece's debt is unsustainable. The agency currently has a B1 rating on the country's sovereign debt, which implies a 20% risk of a default or debt restructuring.

Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor's on Monday lowered Greece's rating further into junk status, to B and C for its long-term and short-term debt ratings, respectively.

 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/us-eurozone-greece-slovakia-idUSTRE74936B20110510
By Darcy Lambton

LONDON | Tue May 10, 2011 9:17am EDT

(Reuters) - Restructuring of Greece's debt will be inevitable at some point to overcome the country's debt crisis, Slovak Prime Minister Iveta Radicova said on Tuesday.

Slovakia, a euro zone member since 2009, has long been critical of aid to Greece and refused to take part in the country's bailout last year.

"The crisis in Greece is so deep that without such steps any kind of only financial instruments is not helpful," Radicova told Reuters Insider television in an interview.

Radicova, leader of a center-right government since July last year, said the financial sector must take some part in any restructuring.

"First of all, the involvement of the private sector, it means mainly the banking sector, financial institutions," she said, when asked what any restructuring should look like.

She said a number of options were possible, including an extension of debt maturities.

Standard and Poor's cut Greece's credit rating further into junk territory on Monday on growing doubts that the single currency area's most fragile economy can handle its debt without imposing losses on private bondholders.

European officials have not ruled out a new rescue package for Greece or easing of the conditions of its existing 110 billion euro aid package which assumed that Greece could return to the markets to raise funding next year.

Radicova said the idea of any country leaving the euro would by dangerous and risk step.

Slovakia is the second poorest among the 17 euro zone countries, and aid to richer members who have failed to rein in their budget deficits is highly unpopular in the central European country.

Slovakia's tough stance has in turn upset some euro zone leaders.

(Writing by Martin Santa in Bratislava, editing by Mike Peacock)
 
 
 

 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/05/10/us-eurozone-idUSLDE7490UN20110510
EU paymaster Merkel guarded on new aid for Greece
By Stephen Brown and Ingrid Melander

BERLIN/ATHENS | Tue May 10, 2011 10:57am EDT

(Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Europe's reluctant paymaster, said on Tuesday she could only discuss further aid for Greece after EU and IMF officials report on implementation of its existing rescue plan.

Speaking to foreign correspondents in Berlin, Merkel did not rule out additional funding for Athens, or a possible fresh easing of terms on its 110 billion euro ($157 billion) bailout, and she voiced confidence that the German parliament would back a permanent bailout mechanism for the euro zone.

"I need to analyze the findings of the European Central Bank, European Commission and International Monetary Fund first and I can't comment before that," she said. "Anything else would not help Greece or Europe.

A source with direct knowledge of the joint inspection mission visiting Athens said EU and IMF officials had not yet concluded whether Greece had met targets required to receive the next tranche of aid under its existing aid deal.

He stressed the inspectors were not discussing a new bailout package with the Greek government, which has acknowledged it may not be able to return to capital markets next year as planned.

A source in Germany's ruling coalition said EU finance ministers were talking about "reprofiling" Greece's existing bailout loans with the voluntary inclusion of private investors.

That could entail extending the maturity on existing loans and a further reduction in the interest rate.

However, he said there was no mention of a new 60 billion euro ($85.71 billion) aid package, which Dow Jones Newswires and business daily Handelsblatt reported was under preparation.

"They are discussing reprofiling the rescue loans and the possibility of involving the private sector on a voluntary basis," said the source, who asked not to be identified.

French Economy Minister Christine Lagarde, asked about more aid for Greece on a visit to Zurich, said: "We have been rescuing for a year and we will keep up." She gave no details.

In Strasbourg, EU Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said it was premature to talk about a new package for Greece now but he expected a decision in a few weeks' time on the next steps to tackle Athens' refinancing needs.

EURO, SHARES STEADY

Euro zone markets steadied amid growing expectations that Greece will receive additional aid to avert an early debt restructuring that could force investors to take heavy losses.

But Greek and EU officials said reports that Athens would get a second bailout of 60 billion euros next month were either plain wrong, or at least highly premature, insisting talks on further assistance were only at an exploratory stage.

Analysts said the figure was merely a reflection of the amount that Athens is meant to raise on capital markets in 2012 and 2013 under its current EU/IMF program.

The euro, which hit a three-week low against the dollar on Monday after ratings agency S&P downgraded Greece deeper into junk territory and said it might have to write off up to 70 percent of its debt, regained some ground.

European shares rose partly due to a growing belief that the European Union would act to support Athens and prevent forced write-downs on its 327 billion euro debt mountain. The cost of insuring Greek debt against default fell slightly.

But Greece paid an increased yield of 4.88 percent to sell six-month treasury bills on Tuesday to refinance maturing debt, higher than last month and well above the 4.2 percent average rate on its IMF and EU loans.

Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter was quoted as saying Greece might be given longer to repay 110 billion euros in loans under its existing EU/IMF rescue plan, and the interest rate could be cut again but rejected any thought of restructuring.

"POLITICAL SUICIDE"

The chairman of euro zone finance ministers, Jean-Claude Juncker, said after senior euro zone policymakers met last Friday there was a consensus that Greece would need a second adjustment program.

Slovakia's prime minister, Iveta Radicova, told Reuters Insider television in an interview that restructuring of Greece's debt would become inevitable at some point, and the private sector should be involved.

"The crisis in Greece is so deep that without such steps, any kind of only financial instruments is not helpful," she said.

Yet ECB policymakers kept up a barrage of dire warnings against such a move, despite widespread market expectations.

ECB governing council member Ewald Nowotny of Austria said Greece should be given more time to repay financial aid rather than issuing new loans. A restructuring "would immediately have massive consequences for the Greek banking system and for the banking system overall," he told Austrian radio. "That would only heighten the crisis."

ECB executive board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said a euro zone debt default or restructuring would be "political suicide."

Speaking in Florence, Bini Smaghi said Greece was a rich country with assets it could sell to pay down its debt.

The EU's Rehn said he was confident EU finance ministers, including his native Finland, would back a 78 billion euro rescue package next week for Portugal, the latest euro zone member to require a bailout after Greece and Ireland.

Finland's Center Party, which lost seats in elections last month and plans to go into opposition, said it would back the Portuguese bailout in parliament, helping prime minister-elect Jyrki Kaitinen toward a majority despite fierce opposition from the populist True Finns party.


02. 2011年5月11日 00:56:49: cqRnZH2CUM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-09/greek-fund-industry-head-warns-debt-restructuring-would-devastate-economy.html
Greek Fund Industry Head Warns Debt Restructuring Would Devastate Economy
By Paul Tugwell - May 10, 2011 10:13 PM GMT+0900

Greece is relying on its 110 billion-euro ($157 billion) bailout last year from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Photographer: Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images

Play Video
May 10 (Bloomberg) –- Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, talks about the possibility of restructuring Greek debt and the prospects of contagion in Europe. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television’s “On The Move.” (Source: Bloomberg)
Greece’s money managers are warning of damage to an already crippled economy should European leaders move to restructure the country’s debt.
Greek 10-year bond yields and the cost of insuring the country’s debt against default rose to all-time highs at the end of April amid speculation about a debt write-off or an extension of repayment timelines. Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s long-term sovereign credit rating by two levels yesterday to B, five notches below investment grade. The rating may be lowered further, S&P said.
“Right now a restructuring shouldn’t and can’t happen,” Aris Xenofos, president of the Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association representing 36 firms, said in an interview before the downgrade. “It would be devastating for the Greek economy, and detrimental for the rest of the European Union and the euro.”
Greece is relying on its 110 billion-euro ($157 billion) bailout last year from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, as well as Treasury bill sales, to meet its funding needs through 2011. As part of the package, Greece is supposed to regain access to markets next year and refinance at least 75 percent of its maturing medium- and long-term debt.
Bill Sale
Greece sold 26-week bills today to yield 4.88 percent, up from 4.8 percent at the previous auction on April 12, and investors requested 3.58 times the securities on sale compared with 3.81 times previously.
The government is eliminating state jobs and reducing debt at nationally owned enterprises as well as overhauling the country’s tax and pension system to boost revenue.
“The key issue is not a restructuring, but the extent to which the economy and Greek society will manage to produce and deliver results following the structural reforms,” said Xenofos, who also is managing director of EFG Eurobank Mutual Fund Management Co., part of Greece’s second-largest bank.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Lorenzo Bini Smaghi said allowing a euro-area member state to default on or restructure its debt would create more problems than it solves.
“Default or debt restructuring is a dramatic economic and social event for the country which experiences it -- I would call it political ‘suicide’ -- which leads many into poverty, as experience has shown,” Bini Smaghi said in a speech in Florence today. While at first sight it might seem reasonable and fair to ask investors to bear the consequences of their decisions, “it is wrong not only in theory but also in practice,” he said.
Lobbying for Default
Bini Smaghi said large investors who have bought insurance against sovereign default “stand to benefit greatly from the default and lobby in favor of it.”
Fellow ECB Executive Board member Juergen Stark said today Greece is “not insolvent” and added the current fiscal program is aimed at regaining market access. “At the end of the day, a restructuring wouldn’t be a solution to the problems that Greece needs to overcome. There are structural problems and the budget needs to be brought under control,” he said.
“The ECB is fighting to keep politicians away from the restructuring debate,” said Nick Kounis, head of macro research at AMN Amro in Amsterdam. “They are worried that people are starting to consider it in important capitals.”
Further Adjustments
Euro-region officials said that Greece needs “a further adjustment program” after an unscheduled May 6 meeting with Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the group of finance ministers. A restructuring would hurt more than providing the country with additional help, the senior finance spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party said yesterday in Berlin.
George Magnus, senior economic adviser for UBS Investment Bank in London, said European Union leaders must restructure Greek debt without further delay.
“The sooner it happens the better,” Magnus said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move” with Francine Lacqua. “It is incumbent on Europe to basically draw a line somewhere, to say enough is enough, we’ve basically got to deal with this in a traditional debt-restructuring manner.”
Yields on two-year Greek notes fell 28 basis points to 25.3 percent at 2.33 p.m. in Athens today after hitting a record last week. The 10-year yield fell 28 basis points to 15.4 percent, up from 12.4 percent at the start of the year.
Economic Plight
The markets should wait until next year to see if there are signs Greece’s economy is returning to growth, Xenofos said at his Athens office on April 29.
“We need to wait until at least the earlier part of 2012 to see where we are and whether we need to start discussing more serious scenarios for a restructuring and the conditions and nature such a restructuring would take,” Xenofos said.
Greece’s economy, in its third year of a recession, is forecast by the government to shrink 3 percent this year before returning to growth in 2012. The country’s debt is projected to peak at 59 percent more than economic output in 2012.
The country plans 76 billion euros of austerity measures and state-asset sales through 2015 that aim to reduce the budget deficit to close to 1 percent of gross domestic product from a targeted 7.4 percent this year.
“Greece’s problems won’t be solved by restructuring its debt but by restructuring the country,” Prime Minister George Papandreou said April 15.
Greek Funds
The Hellenic Fund & Asset Management Association’s members had combined assets of 10 billion euros at the end of 2010, according to the group’s website.
Any possible restructuring of Greek debt would have a “limited” effect on Greece’s fund management industry as “a very rigid” legal framework requires managers to value all securities based on the current market price, Xenofos said.
Domestic bond funds have exposure of about 700 million euros, he said. The figure rises to 1.5 billion euros when money-market funds and those investing in a range of assets are included, Xenofos said.
Key to the growth of Greece’s fund management industry are the state pension funds, which have so far only allocated as much as 1.8 billion euros to mutual funds out of a total of about 25 billion euros of assets, according to Xenofos.
“If you have state pension funds that don’t support the fund management industry in Greece, then you don’t have a safety net for situations such as the one we are experiencing,” he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Paul Tugwell in Athens at ptugwell1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Angela Cullen at acullen8@bloomberg.net


03. 2011年5月11日 02:16:07: cqRnZH2CUM

http://economicsnewspaper.com/policy/german/schauble-imf-athens-no-plans-for-rescheduling-greece-15066.html

Schäuble, IMF, Athens: No plans for rescheduling Greece
today 15:01 • dpa

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Rumors of an impending restructuring of Greece have met with fierce opposition worldwide. Federal Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU), rejected speculation about such plans in Germany. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned against, to have been a recommendation. And Greece’s Finance Minister Giorgos Papakonstantinou said on Saturday in Washington: “A debt restructuring is not on the agenda. ‘

According to the Financial Times the government is working on models for a ‘market-friendly “debt restructuring should Greece, Athens miss its savings targets. After that donors could be offered a voluntary restructuring. Berlin Greece would not push but to such a debt restructuring. Schäuble said: “The reports (…) without any foundation.”

IMF DENIES REPORTS

The IMF

contradicted reports that he considered the debt situation of Greece as untenable and recommending to 2012 debt restructuring. ‘I reject this story, “said the spokesman of the International Monetary Fund, William Murray. IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn had said Saturday that aid programs for Greece were based on the assumption that not roll Athens, but wanted to pay back the debt.

‘This is the hypothesis, were decided on the basis of the European program and our support for the European program. ” This is followed have not changed, stressed the head of the International Monetary Fund. Citing people familiar with the matter had been called in U.S. media, high-IMF staff had European governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) informed that an early debt restructuring should be considered.

BRADY BONDS

According to the ‘Financial Times’ oriented, the federal government in its plans to include so-called Brady bonds. These bonds were issued in the 1980s mainly by Latin American borrowers. The bond holders will be encouraged to exchange risky Greek government securities at market price to secure nearly papers with guarantees of the Euro-zone. Alternatively, the euro rescue fund EFSF buy bonds and repay them then or extend its duration, writes the Financial Times. Rescue fund chief Klaus Regling pointed in the ‘Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung “(Saturday), this scenario back, however.

Schäuble has recently been challenged several times speculation, Berlin would not infer more from a Greece-debt restructuring. Interpretations according to a newspaper interview, Schäuble had said on the margins of the IMF’s spring meeting, the conclusions that were drawn from his statements ‘are a bit wrong’. In the daily newspaper Die Welt, he had previously indicated that would further aid to Athens, the International Monetary Fund, the ECB and the EU Commission, the debt sustainability of Greece confirm every three months. In June, stand at the next report.

NOT ALL GREEK TO DEBT

‘If this report will come to the conclusion that debt sustainability is to doubt, you have to do something, “said Schäuble the sheet. ‘Then, further measures must be taken. ” But he pointed at the same time, private creditors would have until 2013 expect to be taken in joint liability.

In Greece itself is not only negative votes. The former Greek Minister President Kostas Simitis (1996-2004) said of the Athens Sunday newspaper “To Vima ‘:’ A well-prepared rescheduling will improve our position substantially. ‘/ Fb / sl / dd / DP / enl

Sources:

Finanzen100 News
Related News:

Schäuble: No plans for rescheduling Greece
Finance Ministry: No plans for rescheduling
Greece-rescheduling: Schäuble provides eddy
Speculation about rescheduling – Greece rejects rumors
Meeting of Finance Ministers: Schäuble does not yet Greece is forearmed

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http://www.finanzen100.de/nachrichten/schaeuble-iwf-athen-keine-plaene-fuer-griechenland-umschuldung_H768849178_1-1-201862852872889400/

Schäuble, IWF, Athen: Keine Pläne für Griechenland-Umschuldung
17.04.2011 • dpa

WASHINGTON (dpa-AFX) - Gerüchte über eine bevorstehende Umschuldung Griechenlands sind weltweit auf heftigen Widerspruch gestoßen. Bundesfinanzminister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) wies Spekulationen über entsprechende Pläne Deutschlands zurück. Auch der Internationale Währungsfonds (IWF) verwahrte sich dagegen, eine entsprechende Empfehlung gegeben zu haben. Und Griechenlands Finanzminister Giorgos Papakonstantinou betonte am Samstag in Washington: 'Eine Umschuldung ist nicht auf der Tagesordnung.'
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Nach Angaben der 'Financial Times' arbeitet die Bundesregierung an Modellen für eine 'marktfreundliche' Umschuldung Griechenlands, sollte Athen seine Sparziele verfehlen. Danach könnte Geldgebern eine freiwillige Umstrukturierung angeboten werden. Berlin wolle Griechenland aber nicht zu einer solchen Umschuldung drängen. Schäuble entgegnete: 'Die Berichte (...) entbehren jeder Grundlage.'

IWF WIDERSPRICHT BERICHTEN

Der IWF widersprach Berichten, er betrachte die Schuldensituation Griechenlands als unhaltbar und empfehle bis 2012 eine Umschuldung. 'Ich weise diese Geschichte zurück', sagte der Sprecher des Weltwährungsfonds, William Murray. IWF-Chef Dominique Strauss-Kahn hatte am Samstag erklärt, die Hilfsprogramme für Griechenland fußten auf der Annahme, dass Athen nicht umschulden, sondern die Schulden zurückzahlen wolle.

'Das ist die Hypothese, auf deren Grundlage das europäische Programm und unsere Unterstützung für das europäische Programm entschieden wurden.' Daran habe sich nichts geändert, betonte der Chef des Weltwährungsfonds. Unter Berufung auf mit der Sache vertraute Personen hatte es in US-Medien geheißen, hohe IWF-Mitarbeiter hätten europäische Regierungen und die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) darüber unterrichtet, dass eine baldige Umschuldung in Betracht gezogen werden sollte.

BRADY-BONDS

Nach Darstellung der 'Financial Times' orientiert sich die Bundesregierung bei ihren Plänen unter anderem an sogenannten Brady-Bonds. Diese Schuldverschreibungen wurden in den 1980er Jahren hauptsächlich durch lateinamerikanische Schuldner herausgegeben. Die Anleihebesitzer sollen ermuntert werden, riskante griechische Staatspapiere nahezu zum Marktpreis gegen sichere Papiere mit Garantien der Euro-Zone einzutauschen. Alternativ könnte der Euro-Rettungsfonds EFSF Anleihen abkaufen und diese dann tilgen oder ihre Laufzeit verlängern, schreibt die 'Financial Times'. Rettungsfonds-Chef Klaus Regling wies in der 'Frankfurter Allgemeinen Zeitung' (Samstag) dieses Szenario jedoch zurück.

Schäuble war zuletzt mehrfach Spekulationen entgegengetreten, Berlin schließe eine Griechenland-Umschuldung nicht mehr aus. Zu Interpretationen nach einem Zeitungsinterview hatte Schäuble am Rande der IWF-Frühjahrstagung gesagt, die Schlussfolgerungen, die aus seinen Äußerungen gezogen würden, 'sind ein wenig irrig'. In der Tageszeitung 'Die Welt' hatte er zuvor darauf verwiesen, dass für weitere Hilfen an Athen der Weltwährungsfonds, die EZB und die EU-Kommission die Schuldentragfähigkeit Griechenlands alle drei Monate bestätigen müssten. Im Juni stehe der nächste Bericht an.

NICHT ALLE GRIECHEN GEGEN UMSCHULDUNG

'Sollte dieser Bericht dann zum Schluss kommen, dass die Schuldentragfähigkeit in Zweifel zu ziehen sei, muss man etwas unternehmen', sagte Schäuble dem Blatt. 'Dann müssen weitere Maßnahmen ergriffen werden.' Er betonte aber zugleich, private Gläubiger müssten erst ab 2013 damit rechnen, in Mithaftung genommen zu werden.

In Griechenland selbst gibt es nicht nur ablehnende Stimmen. Der frühere griechische Ministerpräsdent Kostas Simitis (1996-2004) sagte der Athener Sonntagszeitung 'To Vima': 'Eine gut vorbereitete Umschuldung wird unsere Position substanziell verbessern.'/fb/sl/tt/DP/enl


04. 2011年5月11日 06:13:15: cqRnZH2CUM
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-10/rehn-says-portugal-to-pay-5-5-to-6-for-eu-bailout-loans-1-.html

Interest Rate on EU Aid Loans to Portugal to Be Between 5.5%-6%, Rehn Says
By James G. Neuger and Anabela Reis - May 11, 2011 12:57 AM GMT+0900 

Portugal will pay between 5.5 percent and 6 percent interest on the European portion of a 78-billion euro ($112 billion) bailout, comparable to the rate currently paid by Ireland.

“We will follow the IMF pricing policy and we will have a small premium with a markup for risk, and this will lead to the interest to be somewhere on the scale of over 5.5 percent but clearly below 6 percent,” European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn told reporters in Strasbourg, France.

The goal is for Portugal to return to market financing before the aid program runs out, Rehn said today. Last month, he said Portugal’s bailout loans would “most likely” be for three years, shorter than the 7 1/2-year maturities on joint EU- International Monetary Fund packages of 110 billion euros for Greece and 67.5 billion euros for Ireland.

Greece pays an average of 3.5 percent for the first three years of its plan and 4.5 percent thereafter. Ireland, which is trying to get better terms, currently pays an average of 5.8 percent. Rehn today said a reduction on the Irish rate could be made “shortly.”

Euro-area countries will provide two-thirds and the IMF one-third of Portugal’s loans, or 52 billion euros and 26 billion euros, respectively. The IMF loans will have an interest rate of 3.25 percent for the first three years and 4.25 percent after that, based on current rates, Poul Thomsen, head of the IMF mission in Portugal, said on May 5.

Portugal resorted to the EU-led bailout after parliament rejected the government’s latest round of spending cuts and tax increases to tackle the budget deficit, prompting snap elections.

The package calls for Portugal to implement the austerity measures that the government proposed and parliament rejected in March. Spending reductions for 2012 and 2013, including cuts to pensions, will amount to 3.4 percent of gross domestic product, while revenue increases will represent 1.7 percent of economic output, Finance Minister Fernando Teixeira dos Santos said May 5. The plan also earmarks 12 billion euros for Portugal’s banks.

To contact the reporters on this story: Anabela Reis in Lisbon at areis1@bloomberg.net; James Neuger in Brussels at jneuger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Angela Cullen at acullen8@bloomberg.net


05. 2011年5月11日 23:33:08: cqRnZH2CUM
【WSJ社説】市場がユーロ圏首脳陣の言葉を信じない訳
2011年 5月 11日 14:35 JST
 ユーロ圏のリーダーらは1年以上にわたり、ギリシャ(またはアイルランド、あるいはポルトガル)のデフォルトを見込んだ投機のためにこうした国の資金調達コストが上昇していると不満を漏らしている。ただ、どの国の財政も制御下にあり、ギリシャは債務を期限内に全額返済する、という公式見解は変わっていない。では、金融市場がユーロ圏の政治家の言葉を額面通りに受け取ろうとしないのはなぜか。 

ユーロ圏財務相会合(ユーログループ)のユンケル議長

 最近の出来事から探ってみよう。ドイツ誌シュピーゲル(電子版)が6日、ユーロ圏の財務相が同日夜に「ルクセンブルクでの秘密の危機対策会議」でギリシャのユーロ圏脱退について協議すると報じたことから、ユーロ相場は下落した。

 ブリュッセルの本紙記者は、確認のためユーロ圏財務相会合(ユーログループ)のユンケル議長(ルクセンブルク首相兼国庫相)の報道官、ギー・シュラー氏との接触を試みた。その記者たちは本紙のブログ「リアルタイム・ブリュッセル」で、同氏が6日夜に「会議は開かないと繰り返していた」と語っている。

 しかし、ユーロ圏の首脳陣は同日にルクセンブルクで秘密の危機会議を開いたか、少なくとも「非公式会合」を持った。これまでの欧州の債務危機対応は、数々のこうした非公式会合で決められてきた。ユンケル議長が主催した同日の会議ではギリシャのユーロ圏離脱は話題にならなかったようだが、財務相らはギリシャとポルトガルの財政危機について長時間にわたり議論した。

 つまり、シュピーゲル誌の報道は大げさだったが、全く根拠がなかったわけではない。それを修正する機会を与えられたシュラー氏は、市場に一段の誤情報を与えてしまった。

 同氏は先のうそについて本紙記者に対し、「会議はないと言うように言われた」ためだと述べた。「あのときはウォール街が開いていた」ため「配慮する必要があった」のだという。

 これによりユーロ圏首脳陣に対する信頼が損なわれるかどうか聞くと、シュラー氏は「全く損なわれない」と答えた。というのも、ユンケル議長やユーロ圏の他のキーパーソンが市場に何か伝えたときはいつも、「誰もそれを信じていないようにみえる」からだという。

 どうしてそうなるのかわれわれには想像もつかない。


06. 2011年5月12日 00:08:31: cqRnZH2CUM
http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/05/10/eu-economic-plan-faces-time-crunch/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=brussels
May 10, 2011, 5:17 AM ET

EU Economic Plan Faces Crunch

By Riva Froymovich

The backbone of the European Union’s “comprehensive response” to the sovereign debt crisis faces a key hurdle at next week’s meeting of finance ministers on May 17.

The package of six economic reforms is the legal framework for the EU’s plans to monitor member state budgets, recommend policy changes and punish governments that consistently step out of line. But a political tug-of-war has sparked concerns that its adoption will be delayed.

EU heads of state and government have promised to sign-off on the reforms by a June 24 summit.

Timing is not inconsequential. Further delays could spell trouble for stressed government bond markets. In addition, the European Commission is scheduled to recommend changes to national budgets, kicking off the process set out in the framework, on June 7. Without a legal grounding, the commission’s proposals will be rendered meaningless.

However, the timeline is challenged by a multi-level approval process, the first major test of new European Parliament powers that give it equal say with member states. People close to the legislative negotiations also question how much national governments are willing to concede to satisfy the parliament.

The commission proposed the economic “six-pack” last year in September, which the member states softened and approved this year. Now, the parliament has its say–after voting on 2,000 amendments, some of which aimed to bring the proposals closer in line with the commission’s initial plan.

The parliament’s economic committee is now in negotiations with Hungary, which currently holds the rotating EU Presidency and therefore represents member governments. Hungary will present a progress report on the negotiations at the May 17 meeting.

All parties involved are still publicly targeting June for final approval. But, privately, some are skeptical that it will be done before the June 24 deadline.

The parliament is digging in its heels. It wants sanctions for ill-behaving countries to be more automatic and to give more authority to the commission in preventing excessive deficits, given the history of member states allowing one another’s budgets to get out of hand without facing sanctions.

But internal conflict in the parliament is complicating the matter too.

Members of the economic committee officially have a mandate to negotiate on behalf of the full parliament before any plenary vote takes place, but Socialist members say the committee’s position is not supported by a strong enough-majority. They say a vote before the entire parliament could change their negotiating positions with Hungary. For instance, Socialists want to distinguish between “good spending” and “bad spending” before punishing a country for an excessive budget deficit.

At the same time, a select few Socialists with a seat at the negotiating table are lobbying their own positions, instead of just the economic committee’s consensus votes, directly to Hungary. This is slowing the negotiations, say people with knowledge of the situation.

Hungary has four more meetings with the parliament before May 17 to hash something out. Then, the other member states weigh in.

While there is a political will to succeed by June, it is unclear how much the finance ministers will agree to let Hungary concede during the negotiations. Member-state flexibility will be key in keeping to the timeframe, say people familiar with the situation.

A significant roadblock is the Franco-German side-deal reached in Deauville, France, last October. It was here that Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel set the terms for supporting the commission’s legislative package. Namely, by watering down automatic sanctions, they were able to find agreement on the rest.

“I’m not saying it’s sacred… but Deauville is a relatively strong orientation for many of the issues,” said an EU official.

Still, another EU member-state diplomat said the parliament may find friends in some of the countries that have always been pushing for tougher preventive measures, such as the Netherlands and Finland.

On top of all this, there is still the outstanding issue of the economic scoreboard, a highly politicized process that officials say there has been no progress on since a broad outline in March.

Senior EU government officials drew up a list of nine key indicators in March that should be used to signal whether a country is developing potentially dangerous economic imbalances. Now, parliament is seeking to get in on that conversation too, which one official said was “technically not implementable.”

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/05/10/a-greek-debt-scoresheet/?mod=WSJBlog&mod=brussels
May 10, 2011, 12:55 PM ET

A Greek Debt Scoresheet
 
By Charles Forelle

Get ready, sports fans. The next few weeks and months will be packed with Greek debt action. We present you, our Loyal Readers, with a handy scoresheet. Print it out and post it on your wall.

The Problem: The €110 billion EU-IMF bailout is not enough money for Greece. It never was. The original bailout math in May 2010 showed Greece would need €53.2 billion to cover deficits, €88.3 billion to repay existing long-term debt and €10 billion to prop up banks through mid-2013. That’s €151.5 billion. To plug the hole, the EU presumed Greece would borrow more than €40 billion from private markets.

The numbers have only gotten worse. In the most recent analysis, the EU added €4.9 billion to the deficits that will need to be financed. The current estimate is €44.1 billion in long-term borrowing to fill the gap, of which €26.7 billion should come in 2012. Almost no one believes Greece will be able to raise that much money; currently, markets want more than 15% to lend to Greece, and S&P rates its bonds deep in junk territory.

There’s not much time: The Day of Reckoning is likely March 20, 2012, when Greece must pay back a €14.4 billion bond.

The Solutions: There are at least four possible options.

1.) Modify, wait and hope. Make some tweaks to Greece’s bailout package and hope they are enough–or close enough–to give Greece more time to regain market confidence. What tweaks could be made?

Lowering the interest rate on Greece’s bailout loans. Greece, after a rate cut, will now pay around 4.5% for its euro-zone loans (the IMF rate can’t realistically be touched). At the beginning of 2012, Greece will have around €57 billion in euro-zone bailout loans outstanding. If the euro-zone countries were willing to make the loans completely interest-free, a huge step, Greece would save just €2.5 billion in 2012.
Giving Greece more time to pay back the bailout loans. This is already in the works. But it will have no effect on 2012, since no bailout loans come due in 2012. (Some €10 billion will be due in 2013.)
Plowing ahead with privatization. There are ambitious plans to realize €50 billion from privatization of state assets by 2015. But how much could be realized in the coming months? Hard to say, but likely not very much.

The figure of €26.7 billion in required new borrowing in 2012 could probably be fudged a bit by speeding up bailout-loan disbursements. But the total planned bailout disbursements in 2013 are €8 billion.

Eliminating interest entirely and pulling all the 2013 disbursements into 2012 would close the gap by €10.5 billion–not even halfway. Barring a massive amount of very fast privatization, this route looks impossibly difficult to achieve by March 20.

(A wild card: Short-term debt. We’ve excluded it from our calculations, on the theory that it is cashed out and reissued in a continuous flow mostly through local banks. The EU assumes that too. It’s not a terrible assumption, given that the Greek banks are relatively healthy–at least compared to their Irish counterparts. But Greece could close the gap a bit by issuing somewhat more short-term debt than it redeems each year. The EU’s revised bailout calculations actually do this; net short-term debt issuance over the period of the bailout in May 2010 was estimated at €1.1 billion; in the most recent update, it is €5.7 billion. Perhaps this could be stretched further? But there’s surely a limit.)

2.) Give Greece more money. The EU’s temporary bailout fund, the EFSF, could just write a check. That would plug the gap very quickly. Of course, voters in Germany, Finland, the Netherlands and elsewhere would not be happy. And it wouldn’t do anything to change the fundamental upward direction of Greece’s debt pile. Moreover, some €35 billion in long-term debt is due to be paid back in 2012. So the taxpayers of euro-zone countries would be borrowing money to lend to Greece, a very risky credit, so that it could pay back other borrowers (i.e., private banks) in full. Not likely to be politically popular.

3.) Demand that private creditors hold off on getting theirs. Greece could be told to offer a “voluntary exchange” to its private creditors, whereby they turn in their maturing bonds for new ones that are repaid later. There’s a risk: If not enough borrowers sign up for the deal, the voluntary exchange could quickly become involuntary, which is far messier. Plus, just putting off repayments doesn’t reduce Greece’s total debt burden–nor its mounting interest burden. Last year, interest payments ate up 14% of government revenue.

Some quick arithmetic suggests that the EU might be able to scrape by without giving Greece more money in 2012, if all or most of the long-term bondholders whose debt comes due that year (holding about €35 billion) agree to postpone repayment.

But it’s a tight squeeze: Telling existing bondholders that there won’t be any fresh financing makes them less likely to agree voluntarily to suspend repayment. If there isn’t enough interest, the EU will have to write another check.

4.) Take the “haircuts” now. Most economists believe Greece won’t be able to repay its €350 billion (and growing) debt. Getting it under control thus requires forcing private investors (and possibly the public lenders) to accept that they won’t get fully paid back–the dreaded “haircut.” If it is inevitable, doing it sooner rather than later limits the impact on public lenders, and thus taxpayers. But no one knows exactly what this step would do to the banks that lent to Greece, and by extension the broader European banking system.

But even this option will almost certainly mean Greece’s needing more bailout money. A haircut will bar it from private markets for a while. It’ll need public money as long as it’s still running deficits.

 
 
 
 
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576316522301926858.html?mod=WSJ_article_MoreIn_Europe

Violence Mars Greek General Strike
By ALKMAN GRANITSAS
[2greece0511] Orestis Panagiotou/European Pressphoto Agency

Demonstrators were arrested by riot police during violent clashes in Athens Wednesday.

ATHENS―A largely peaceful protest Wednesday by tens of thousands of Greeks against new government austerity measures was marred by violence in central Athens late in the day, when hundreds of youths wearing ski masks hurled water bottles, firecrackers and other objects at police who responded with tear gas and pepper spray.

Throughout the day, public services across Greece ground to a halt as civil servants, teachers and hospital staff walked off the job, in one of the biggest demonstrations in months. Central and local government offices were closed, hospitals and ambulance services were operating on skeleton staffs, and schools and universities were shut for the day.
More

Brussels Blog: A Greek Debt Scoresheet
Heard on the Street: No Drama in Credit Markets

Transport services also were disrupted, with ferry and rail services suspended after dockworkers joined the strike. Public transport around the capital, Athens, operated on a reduced schedule, and flight operations were hit by a four-hour walkout by air-traffic controllers. Journalists also joined in the strike, leading to a blackout of all radio and television news programs.

The strike, the second to be called this year by the country's two main umbrella unions, comes just days before the government is due to present Parliament with €26 billion ($37.4 billion) in further spending cuts and tax increases to slash the budget deficit over the next five years.
Photos: Strike Hits Greece

View Slideshow
[ SB10001424052748703864204576317010870070664]
Associated Press
Timeline: Greece's Debt Crisis

View Interactive
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

More interactive graphics and photos

"These neoliberal and barbarous policies, which are driving workers and society into poverty for the benefit of creditors and bankers, are taking us back to the last century," said public sector umbrella union Adedy in a statement. "They must not pass!"

In May last year, Greece narrowly avoided default with the help of a €110 billion bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund in exchange for measures to cut its bloated budget deficit and reform its economy.

Since then, the country has cut its budget deficit by about a third, to 10.5% of gross domestic product last year, while the new measures―expected to be outlined Monday―aim to bring the deficit down to below 1% of GDP by 2015.

The measures will include some €15.6 billion in spending cuts, and another €10 billion in new taxes. Much of the spending cuts would come from reducing wage costs in the public sector, cuts in operating expenses at state-owned enterprises, and reduced defense and health-care spending.

Greece's public-sector workers―such as teachers, local government staff and workers at state-owned enterprises―have been hardest hit by the reforms so far, having seen their wages cut by up to 25% in some cases, as well as reductions in other benefits and entitlements.

But the measures taken so far have weighed heavily on Greece's already sputtering economy as reduced wage and pensions, combined with higher taxes, have hit consumer spending which accounts for about four-fifths of the economy. The country is entering its third year of recession after shrinking a worse-than-expected 4.5% last year, and with only a modest recovery expected later this year.

Despite that, one recent public-opinion poll shows that Greece's Socialist government enjoys some measure of support among the wider public for its reforms, which are seen as correcting decades of stifling overregulation in the economy and mismanagement in the public sector. A second poll, however, showed that most Greeks think the government should renegotiate the terms of its bailout deal.

According to a poll published in the center-left Ethnos newspaper earlier this month, 67.7% of Greeks think that the government should proceed with economic reforms, and 63.7% supported the need for privatizations or other measures to exploit state-owned assets. A further 59.7% said they supported abolishing the current life-time job guarantee for public servants.

But a separate poll for the privately owned Mega television channel this week also showed that 60.3% of Greeks want the bailout deal renegotiated, and 26% thought Greece should scrap the program altogether and abandon the euro.


07. 2011年5月12日 00:22:08: cqRnZH2CUM
MAY 11, 2011, 6:30 A.M. ET
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703864204576316392675493366.html?mod=WSJ_economy_LeftTopHighlights
Energy Prices Fuel German Inflation 

By EMESE BARTHA

FRANKFURT―Annual consumer-price inflation in Germany, Europe's largest economy, was the highest in April since October 2008, driven primarily by energy-price increases, the Federal Statistics Office, or Destatis, said Wednesday, confirming its preliminary figures published April 27.

Consumer prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in April, and increased 2.4% annually, according to final calculations, Destatis said. The figures were unchanged from the preliminary data.

Annual consumer-price inflation in Germany was last as high in October 2008, while a higher figure of 2.9% was reached in September 2008.

As seen in previous months, inflation in April was mainly driven by energy prices, which increased 10.5% compared with April 2010, while food and alcohol-free drink prices rose by 2% on the year.

With Easter holidays falling in April this year, air travel and package holiday prices rose by 13.8% and 10.5%, respectively. In 2010, Easter holidays began in March. The price increase of the package holidays alone accounted for around 0.2 percentage point of April's annual inflation rate, it added.

Based on items in a European Union-harmonized basket of goods, German consumer prices rose 0.3% monthly and 2.7% annually, Destatis said, raising its preliminary reading of a 0.2% and a 2.6% increase.

Food inflation is expected to "remain a force" in the euro zone as a whole, Barclays Capital's Fabio Fois said in a research note. Retailers are likely to continue to pass on commodity price increases to consumers, he said.

This could be a troubling development for the European Central Bank as it aims to put the breaks on inflationary trends in the euro zone. Last week markets viewed ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet's remarks at his monthly press conference as dovish.

By saying that the central bank will "monitor very closely" inflationary risks and refraining to say that the bank would use "strong vigilance," the bank cued markets that the next rate rise will most likely come in July, not in June as about a quarter of polled experts had thought prior to the press conference. Yet if inflationary pressure continues to rise, then the bank may be forced to act sooner than they might otherwise want.

Nevertheless, one probably shouldn't read too much into the German figures. Experts don't expect the upward revision to HICP to result in a change to the aggregate euro-zone figures, which estimated consumer price growth in the single currency area at 2.8% in April.

"Despite the modest upward revision of the [German] HICP index, we still expect EMU HICP to be confirmed at 2.8% in April," Annalisa Piazza of Newedge said. The ECB raised its main rate in April for the first time in nearly three years to 1.25%. The rate had been at 1%, a record low, for nearly two years.

Write to Emese Bartha at emese.bartha@dowjones.com


08. 2011年5月12日 08:55:46: cqRnZH2CUM
デフォルトに向かうユーロ圏の旅
2011.05.12(Thu) http://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/7522
Financial Times(2011年5月11日付 英フィナンシャル・タイムズ紙)
王様に死刑を宣告された男の話がある。王様は男に、1年以内に王様の馬をしゃべらせることができたなら命を助けてや ると言った。死刑宣告された男はこれに同意した。なぜ同意したのかと尋ねられた男は、何が起きてもおかしくないと答えた。王が死ぬかもしれないし、男が死 ぬかもしれない。馬が話すようになる可能性だってある、と。
 既にギリシャとアイルランドとポルトガルを飲み込み、ほかのユーロ導入国も脅かしている財政危機に対するユーロ圏のアプローチは、この男と同じだ。
効果のない時間稼ぎ

ユーロ圏周縁国の借り入れコストは下がるどころか上昇している〔AFPBB News〕
 政策立案者は、苦境にある国々が信用力を回復することを期待し、しばらく時間稼ぎすることに決めた。
 今のところ、この試みは失敗している。借り入れコストは下がるどころか、上昇している。最初に救済を受けたギリシャの場合、無理のない条件で再び民間から資金を借りられる可能性は限りなく小さい。
 だが、最後の審判の日を先延ばしにしても、ギリシャの苦境が改善するわけではない。それどころか、来るべき債務再編の痛みを大きくするだけだ。
 ギリシャの債務は国内総生産(GDP)の160%を超えようとしている。残念ながら、ルービニ・グローバル・エコノミクスのヌリエル・ルービニ氏らが論文で指摘しているように、この数字は簡単に跳ね上がる可能性がある。
 ギリシャは、財政引き締めが経済に及ぼす悪影響や、合意された施策に対する抵抗のせいで、財政目標を達成できないかもしれない。競争力を回復する ために必要な通貨の実質減価は、対GDP債務比率を高めることにもなる。一方、実質減価を達成できなければ、求められる成長軌道への回帰が阻まれる可能性 がある。
 あるいは、ユーロが上昇して、さらに競争力が失われるかもしれない。最後に、銀行が経済を支えられなくなる可能性も十分ある。
 これほど大きな債務負担を考えると、ギリシャのような経緯をたどってきた国が、債務負担を軽減していけるだけの条件で市場から資金調達できる可能性は、どれくらいあるだろうか? 極めて小さいと言わざるを得ない。
 ギリシャの長期国債の金利が、現在の16%ではなく、6%だと仮定しよう。さらに、GDPの名目成長率を4%と仮定する。断っておくが、これらは かなり楽観的な仮定だ。この条件下では、債務を安定させるためだけでも、ギリシャ政府はプライマリーバランス(金利支払いを含まない基礎的財政収支)を GDP比3.2%の黒字にしなければならない。

緊縮財政に抗議するギリシャ人〔AFPBB News〕
 マーストリヒト条約は債務の上限をGDP比60%と定めている。ギリシャがこれを2040年までに達成しようと思ったら、プライマリーバランスの黒字はGDP比6%にする必要がある。
 ギリシャ国民をおどしたりすかしたりして、毎年、財政支出によって受け取る金額よりはるかに多くの税金を納めてもらわなければならないわけだ。
 一体どんな材料があれば、これでギリシャへの融資が十分に正当化されると投資家に納得させられるだろうか? 筆者には何一つ思いつかない。だが、6%という利回りは、ドイツ国債に対するスプレッドが3ポイントもないことに留意すべきだ。デフォルトのリスクがそれ ほど高くなくても、そのような国債は全く魅力がない。
板挟みに陥ったギリシャ
 要するに、ギリシャは板挟み状態にある。ギリシャは、無理のない金利で融資を受けるには信頼性に欠けることを、債権者たちは分かっている。今後 も、ますます多額の公的資金に依存することになるだろう。しかし、それにより、ギリシャはさらに深い落とし穴にはまることになる。
 例えば、ギリシャの債務の半分を国際通貨基金(IMF)や欧州安定化メカニズム(2013年に現行の欧州金融安定機関の後を継ぐことになっている制度)といった優先債権者が保有するとしよう。また、民間市場からの無理のない条件での融資の確保に必要な債務の削減が額面の50%だとしよう。そうなると、民間の債権者は完全に損をする。
 これほど恐ろしいリスクにさらされたら、まともな貸し手は無理のない条件で貸そうなどと思わない。公的基金がギリシャの債務を引き受ければ、再び民間から融資を受けるのはさらに難しくなる。
 欧州中央銀行(ECB)の有力理事であるイタリアのロレンツォ・ビーニ・スマギ氏は、いかなる形の債務再編も避けるべきだとの考えを示した。もしこの見解をまともに受け止めるなら、公的機関は無制限にギリシャに資金を供給し続けなければならない。しかも、長期的に債務負担を減らすことのできる寛大な条件で融資する必要がある。
 これは不可能ではないが、政治的には悪夢そのものだ。モラルハザードの大きさは計り知れないからだ。ギリシャはほぼすべての主権を無期限で失い、双方の怒りが頂点に達するだろう。
 また、欧州外の国は、IMFにそのような大盤振る舞いはさせない。結局、負担は欧州の人々にかかってくる。このようなシナリオに必要な合意が維持される可能性は低い。
それに代わる選択肢は、先手を取って2012年中にも債務を再編することだ。市場の価格動向は投資家がそれを想定していることを示しているため、投資家が衝撃を受ける心配はない。
 債務再編は国の信用度を高め、安定化や改革の計画を維持する動機が大きくなる。さらに、計画された早めの再編を実施すれば、当局はギリシャ内外の銀行が必要としている支援を行う準備もできる。
 債務再編には多くの方法が存在し、それぞれの強制力には違いがある。幸い、ギリシャ国債の95%が国内法の下で発行されているため、望まれる大規模な債務再編を実行するうえで法的な問題は少なくて済むはずだ。
不人気な債務再編も、それ以外の選択肢よりはまし
 言うまでもなく、債務再編もやはり大混乱を引き起こすことに変わりはない。また、ギリシャは競争力にも欠けるため、債務再編によって成長軌道に復帰できる確証もない。ユーロ圏内では、競争力の問題は容易に解決できない。ギリシャが長期にわたってデフレに苦しむ恐れもある。
 債務再編がどれだけ人気がなくても、それ以外の選択肢よりはましだ。
 もう1つの選択肢では、ギリシャの債務に対していつまでも資金供給を続けなければならない。その場合、ユーロ導入国は、米国の各州が受けているよりもはるかに極端な裏口財政支援のメカニズムを手に入れることになる。
 この物語がギリシャで終わる可能性は極めて低い。アイルランドやポルトガルといった周縁国も、長期にわたって民間市場から締め出される可能性が高い。出発点が非常に困難な状況であることを考えると、健全な財政への復帰は決して保証されていない。
 自国の通貨で過剰な債務を抱える国はインフレを起こす。一方、外貨建ての債務を抱える国はデフォルト(債務不履行)する。ユーロ圏諸国は、ユーロ導入によって前者から後者になった。
 債務再編の 可能性を排除すれば、ユーロ圏各国が互いに資金を供給し、同時に互いを規制しなければならない。もっと正確に言えば、大きく強い国が、小さく弱い国に資金 を供給し、取り締まりを行う。さらに悪いことに、この状態を、馬が話せるようになるまで続けなければならない。ユーロ圏はそのような未来を望んでいるのだ ろうか?
By Martin Wolf
© The Financial Times Limited 2011. All Rights Reserved. Please do not cut and


09. 2011年5月14日 09:28:27: cqRnZH2CUM
ギリシャ、債務再編でも問題解決につながらず=ECB専務理事
2011年 05月 14日 08:27 JST 

 5月13日、欧州中央銀行のシュタルク専務理事は、ギリシャがソブリン債務を再編しても財政問題の解決にはつながらないとの見方を示した。アテネのアクロポリスの丘で12日撮影(2011年 ロイター/John Kolesidis)
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 [アーヘン(ドイツ) 13日 ロイター] 欧州中央銀行(ECB)のシュタルク専務理事は13日、ギリシャがソブリン債務を再編しても同国の財政問題の解決にはつながらず、ユーロ圏全体に計り知れないリスクが及ぶとの見方を示した。

 理事は、ギリシャの債務再編に関する市場の憶測について、同国が支払不能に陥っているという誤った前提に基づいているとし「債務再編が当該国およびユーロ圏全体に及ぼす甚大なマイナス影響を過小評価すべきではない」と発言。リスクは広範に及び、その大きさを計ることは事実上不可能だと述べた。

 また「(債務再編を通じて)単に債務を圧縮することで財政危機を解決できると考えるのは見当違いだ」と語った。

 理事はさらに、債務危機に対する唯一の持続的な解決策は緊縮財政措置や包括的な構造改革を引き続き遂行することだと指摘。債務再編は逆の効果をもたらすとし、政府による改革実行や歳出削減のインセンティブを減らすことになるとの見方を示した。

 ECBの金融政策については、インフレ期待を十分に抑制するためにはよりタイトな金融政策が必要との見解を示した。

 その上で「ECBは毎月、あるいは2、3カ月おきに利上げするなどと述べたことはない。段階的に利上げすると表明したまでだ」と語った。

© Thomson Reuters 2011 All rights reserved.


10. 2011年5月14日 10:16:50: cqRnZH2CUM
金融システム改革、計画半ばまで差し掛かった=ECB総裁
2011年 05月 14日 08:51 JST


 5月13日、欧州中央銀行のトリシェ総裁は、規制当局者による金融システムの改革が計画の半ばまで差し掛かったとの見方を示した(2011年 ロイター/Andrea Comas)
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 [マドリード 13日 ロイター] 欧州中央銀行(ECB)のトリシェ総裁は13日、規制当局者による金融システムの改革が計画の半ばまで差し掛かったとの見方を示した。

 同総裁はマドリードで開かれた金融システム改革に関する会合で講演し「危機により必要となった包括的な金融システムの改革は、半ばに差し掛かったとみている」と述べた。

 そのうえで、規制当局は厳格な銀行規制の青写真の取りまとめにこぎつけたとし「成長への持続的な貢献を確実にするために、金融システムの耐久性強化に必要なことをすべて行うことは、われわれすべての絶対的な義務である」と語った。

 また同総裁はギリシャ問題について、インテレコノミア・テレビのインタビューで「ギリシャは国際社会が認めた計画を策定した。われわれはギリシャに対し、再編を視野に入れていないこの計画を順守するよう呼びかけている」と述べた。

 総裁は金融システムや市場、市場のインフラに対する監視は強化されており、金融監督改革は前進しているとの認識を示した。

 その上で「まだやるべきことは多く残っている。重要なのは改革の実行だ。加えてシステム上重要な金融機関の問題は、引き続き検討する必要がある」と述べた。

 金融市場の監督については、過度のボラティリティーを回避し、特定の市場参加者や寡占的な市場構造による過剰な影響を阻止する一方、透明性向上に向け、取り組まなければならないとの考えを示した。

 総裁はインテレコノミアとのインタビューで、スペインは改革への取り組みを通じて、市場の信頼を得たと指摘。「不可欠である雇用市場改革を含め、多くの構造改革を実現しなければならない。改革は継続しており、正しい方向に向かっている。ただ、やり遂げなければならない」として、スペインに改革を断行するよう求めた。

 また総裁は、欧州、米国ともに、納税者負担によって再び金融機関を救済することは許されないと言明。「新銀行自己資本規制(バーゼルIII)の実施により、著しい長期的な恩恵をもたらす」として、バーゼルIIIの大きな恩恵は「将来の危機再発頻度を低下させることにある」と述べた。

 欧州システミックリスク理事会(ESRB)や米金融安定監督評議会(FSOC)など新設された金融システム監督当局については、システミックリスクを特定し、問題解決にあたる十分なインフラを持ち合わせている必要があると主張。当局間の効果的な連携メカニズムを開発しなければならないとした。

 またデータの入手や質に関して隔たりが生じており、システミックリスクの原因や影響の大きさなどの特定を困難にしているとして、懸念を表明した。

 インフレについては、スペイン国営テレビとのインタビューで、上昇局面にあるが、中期の物価安定に向けた措置を講じると表明。「われわれは常に、物価安定の実現に向けて必要なことを行う」と述べた。

© Thomson Reuters 2011 All rights reserved.


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