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ハマス支持率が上昇／イスラエルの攻撃逆効果
「しんぶん赤旗」 2014年9月4日 日刊紙 ７面
【カイロ＝小泉大介】パレスチナの民間機関・「政策調査研究センター（PSR）」は２日、パレスチナ人の間でイスラム武装抵抗組織ハマスに対する支持が高まっていることを示す最新の世論調査結果を発表しました。
ハマスをめぐってはこの間、イスラエル軍がロケット弾発射やトンネルの破壊を口実に７月８日から50日間にわたりパレスチナ自治区ガザを猛攻撃しました。しかし、2150人（大半は民間人）ものパレスチナ人を殺害した攻撃は、逆にハマスの活動基盤を強める結果となっているといえます。
今回のPSRの世論調査は、イスラエル軍とハマスが長期停戦で合意した8月26日から５日間かけて実施し、ガザとヨルダン川西岸のパレスチナ人1270人が回答しました。
「パレスチナ自治政府議長選挙が今日実施されたらどちらに投票するか」の問いに、ハマスのガザの最高指導者であるハニヤ氏に投票すると答えた人が61％に達し、前回６月の調査から20％増加しました。一方、現自治政府議長で、パレスチナ解放機構（PLO）主流派ファタハを率いるアッバス氏に投票するとしたのは32％で21％減となりました。
パレスチナ評議会（国会に相当）選挙については」「ハマスに投票する」が46％、「ファタハに投票する」が31％でした。
また、先のガザをめぐるイスラエル軍との戦闘でハマスが勝利したと回答した人は79％に。ガザ封鎖解除の条
件としてイスラエルが求めているハマスの武装放棄については、57％が反対を表明しました。前回調査では反対は33％でした。
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ソースの英文記事はこちら ⇒
Special Gaza War Poll（PSR）
2 September 2014
http://www.pcpsr.org/en/special-gaza-war-poll
Gaza
War ends with a victory for Hamas leading to a great increase in its
popularity and the popularity of its approach of armed resistance: for
the first time since 2006, Hamas wins parliamentary and presidential
elections if they were to take place today while West Bankers support
transferring Hamas’ approach to the West Bank
These
are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center
for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
between 26-30 August 2014. The period before the poll witnessed the
eruption of the Gaza War which was preceded by the kidnapping and
killing of three Israelis. More than 2000 Palestinians, mostly
civilians, were killed during the war. About 70 Israelis, mostly from
the military, were killed during the war. Our fieldwork started on the
last day of the war and continued during the first four days of the
ceasefire. This press release covers public perception of the war, who
came out a winner, the ceasefire agreement, targeting of civilians,
evaluation of the performance of various Palestinian actors during the
war, and war impact on reconciliation. It also covers Palestinian
elections, the internal balance of power, the June kidnapping and
killing of the three Israelis, and others. Total size of the sample is
1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations.
Margin of error is 3%.
For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadweh at tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.
Main Findings:
Findings
of this special Gaza War poll highlight dramatic changes in public
attitudes regarding major issues. It goes without saying that the war
was the major driver behind these changes. As expected, and as we saw in
previous instances during and immediately after Israeli wars with
Hamas, findings show a spike in the popularity of Hamas and its leaders
and a major decline in the popularity of Fatah and president Abbas.
But, as in previous cases, these changes might be temporary and things
might revert in the next several months to where they were before the
war.
It
is worth noting that the size of the change in favor of Hamas is
unprecedented since 2006. Indeed, if presidential elections were to take
place today, Ismail Haniyeh would easily win over Abbas and Hamas would
win the largest percentage of the popular vote in parliamentary
elections. The overwhelming majority of the public views Hamas as the
winner and Israel as the loser in this war. Furthermore, a similar
majority views Hamas’ approach of armed confrontation with Israel as the
most effective means of ending Israeli occupation. Indeed, an
overwhelming majority of West Bankers wants to transfer “Hamas’ way” to
the West Bank and rejects the demand to disarm the Islamist group or to
disband the other Gazan armed groups. Findings also indicate that the
public see Iran, Turkey, and Qatar as the most instrumental in
supporting Hamas and helping Gazans remain steadfast against the Israeli
attacks. By contrast, Egypt’s role is seen as week and unhelpful.
Indeed, a majority believes that Egypt played a negative role in the
ceasefire negotiations.
Finally,
despite the fact that the Palestinian Authority, Abbas, and prime
minister Rami al Hamdallah received little positive evaluation for their
role during the war, a majority tends to give the reconciliation
government a big role in the affairs of the Gaza Strip in the post war
period. For example, a majority wants it to control border crossings and
to supervise police and security sector employees; the largest
percentage wants it to control borders with Israel and Egypt and to lead
the reconstruction process in the Strip.
(1) Gaza War:
- 79% believe that Hamas has won the Gaza War; 3% believe Israel came out the winner; and 17% believe the two sides were losers.
- 79%
believe Israel was responsible for the eruption of the Gaza war; 5%
believe Hamas was responsible; and 12% believe the responsibility lies
with the two sides. - 63%
believe that the ceasefire agreement satisfies Palestinian interests,
but 34% disagree with that. Moreover, 59% are satisfied with the
accomplishment gained in the agreement compared to the human and
material losses sustained by the Gaza Strip; 39% are dissatisfied with
the accomplishment. - An
overwhelming majority of 86% support the launching of rockets from the
Gaza Strip at Israel if the siege and blockade are not ended. - 60%
say that Hamas does not launch rockets from populated areas, but 30%
say it does. 49% think it is justified for Hamas to launch rockets from
populated areas and 46% disagree with that. Percentage of those who
believe that launching rockets from populated areas is unjustified
increases to 59% among Gazans while standing at 38% among West Bankers. - Only
30% believe that Hamas should warn Israeli civilians in the specific
targeted areas before launching its rockets; 68% believe it should not
do so. - 57%
oppose disarming armed groups in the Gaza Strip while 25% support such a
measure after the ending of the siege and the conduct of elections; 13%
support this measure but only after reaching a peace agreement with
Israel. In our June 2014 poll, only 33% said it opposed disarming and
dissolving armed groups in the Gaza Strip. - Despite
the current opposition to disarming Gaza groups, a majority of 54%
support and 40% oppose Abbas’ position that argues that the
reconciliation government must be committed to existing agreements
reached between the PLO and Israel and rejects Hamas position that
opposes Abbas’ argument. In our previous poll in June, support for
Abbas’ position stood at 59%. - Yet,
only 43%, compared to 53% last June, agrees with the statement that the
inclusion of Hamas into the PLO means an implicit acceptance by Hamas
of the PLO peace program and the existing agreements with Israel. - About
two thirds (64%) believe that Iran, Turkey and Qatar combined have
given the Gaza Strip the ability to remain steadfast against Israeli
attacks and to be able to continue to launch rockets during the war;
only 9% believe Egypt too has contributed to that. Iran comes on top
with 28%, followed by Turkey (21%) and Qatar (15%); 25% select other
countries or actors. - Moreover,
only 25% describe Egypt’s role in the ceasefire negotiations as
positive while a majority of 52% describe it as negative and 22% as
neutral. - 94%
are satisfied with Hamas’ military performance in confronting Israeli
forces; 78% are satisfied with its defense of civilians in Gaza; and 89%
are satisfied with its media and communication performance. - In
an evaluation of the performance of the various Palestinian actors
during the war, Prime Minister Rami al Hamdallah comes at the bottom,
with 35% giving him a positive rating. The PA comes next with 36%, Abbas
with 39%, the reconciliation government with 43%, and the PLO with 44%.
On top comes Khalid Mish’al with 78% approval and Hamas with 88%
approval. The approval rating for Abbas rises to 49% in the Gaza Strip
and drops to 33% in the West Bank. By contrast, Khalid Mish’al’s
approval rating drops in the Gaza Strip to 70% and rises to 83% in the
West Bank.
(2) The reconciliation government and its role in Gaza after the war:
- Optimism
about the success of reconciliation and the end of the split rises to
69%; 28% remain pessimistic. In our last poll in June 62% were
optimistic. - Three
months after its establishment, 46% are satisfied with the performance
of the reconciliation government and 46% are dissatisfied. Indeed, 60%
prefer to get rid of the reconciliation government and form a unity
government in which leaders and politicians from all major factions
would participate; 34% oppose such a step and prefer to keep the
reconciliation government. The preference for a unity government drops
significantly to 49% in the Gaza Strip and increases to 66% in the West
Bank. - A
majority of 51% wants to place the reconciliation government in charge
of the Rafah crossing, but 38% prefer to keep it under Hamas’ control.
In the Gaza Strip, 64% want to place the Rafah crossing under the
control of the reconciliation government and only 25% want it under
Hamas’ control. The same, with minor variation, applies to control over
the crossings with Israel. - 48%
want the reconciliation government to control the border with Egypt and
39% want it under Hamas’ control. The same, with minor variation,
applies to the border with Israel; with 45% in favor of keeping the
border under the control of the reconciliation government and 41% say
they should stay under Hamas’ control. In the Gaza Strip, 56% say
borders with Egypt should come under the control of the reconciliation
government and 49% say the border with Israel too should come under the
control of the reconciliation government. - 44%
believe the responsibility for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip
should be placed in the hands of the reconciliation government while 39%
prefer to place it in Hamas’ hands. - 83%
want the reconciliation government to pay the salary of the Gaza public
sector that served the previous Hamas government; 13% are opposed to
that. - 65%
want the reconciliation government to be in charge of supervising the
work of the employees of Gaza security sector who worked in the past
under Hamas government; 29% disagree with that, wanting instead to keep
these employees under Hamas’ control. In the Gaza Strip, the demand for
placing the security sector employees under the control of the
reconciliation government rises to 72% and only 24% want them under
Hamas’ control. - Nonetheless,
72% agree with Hamas’ demand that security and police should remain
under its control during the next 6 months, up until the elections; 24%
disagree with that. Two months ago 66% agreed with that.
(3) Presidential and Legislative Elections:
- If
new presidential elections are held today and only two were nominated,
Haniyeh, for the first time since we have started asking about his
popularity about 8 years ago, would receive a majority of 61% and Abbas
would receive 32%. Vote for Haniyeh stands at 53% in the Gaza Strip and
66% in the West Bank. Abbas receives 43% in the Gaza Strip and 25% in
the West Bank. Two months ago, Abbas received the support of 53% in the
West Bank and the Gaza Strip and Haniyeh 41%. The rate of participation
in such elections would reach 71%. - Level of satisfaction with the performance of Abbas decreases from 50% two months ago to 39% in this poll.
- If
presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the
former would receive 45% and the latter would receive 49% of the
participants’ votes. This is the first time in 8 years in which Haniyeh
receives more votes than Barghouti. In our previous poll, Barghouti
received the support of 58% and Haniyeh 38%. The rate of participation
in this case would reach 77%. - If
presidential elections were between three: Mahmud Abbas, Marwan
Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, Haniyeh would receive 48% of the vote,
Barghouti 29%, and Abbas 19%. The rate of participation in this case
would reach 80%. In our previous poll in June 2014, Barghouti received
36% of the vote, Haniyeh 33%, and Abbas 28%. - If
new legislative elections were held today with the participation of all
factions, 78% say they would participate in such elections. Of those
who would participate, 46% say they would vote for Hamas and 31% say
they would vote for Fatah, 7% would vote for all other third parties
combined, and 17% are undecided. Two months ago, vote for Hamas stood at
32% and for Fatah at 40%. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip stands in
this poll at 44% and in the West Bank at 47%. Vote for Fatah in the Gaza
Strip stands in this poll at 36% and in the West Bank at 27%. - A
majority of 69% wants elections to take place within few to six months
from today, 14% want them to take place after a year or more, and 12% do
not want elections.
(4) Domestic Conditions:
- Positive
evaluation of conditions in the Gaza Strip drops from 24% two months
ago to 20% today, and positive evaluation of conditions in the West Bank
remains almost unchanged at 32%. - Perception
of safety and security in the Gaza Strip drops dramatically from 64%
two months ago to 22% in this poll. In the West Bank perception of
safety and security drops from 51% to 47% during the same period. - Findings
show that the percentage of Gazans who say they seek immigration to
other countries stands at 43%; in the West Bank, the percentage stands
at 20%. - For
the first time ever, Hamas’ official TV station, Al Aqsa, is the one
with the most viewership (37%) in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip
followed by al Jazeera (21%), Palestine TV (16%), Ma’an-Mix (11%), and
al Arabiya (5%). - In
the West Bank, 35% of the respondents expected economic conditions in
their area to improve and a similar percentage (33%) expected them to
worsen. But in the Gaza Strip 56% expected economic conditions to
improve and only 20% expected them to worsen.
(5) Peace Process:
- Only
47% believe the chances for the resumption of Palestinian-Israeli
negotiations are medium or high; 51% believe the chances are low or
non-existent. - The
public is divided over the two-state solution: 49% support it and 50%
oppose it. In our last poll two months ago, 54% supported this solution
and 46% opposed it. - A
majority of 53% believe that armed confrontation is the most effective
means to establish a Palestinian state next to the state of Israel. Only
22% believe negotiation is the best means to establish a Palestinian
state and 20% believe that popular non-violent resistance is the most
effective route to statehood. - 62%
say that the two-state solution is no longer practical due to Israeli
settlement expansion and 35% think it is still practical. Yet, only 24%
support the alternative one-state solution; 75% reject the one-state
solution. These findings indicate a drop in the support for the
one-state solution which two months ago stood at 31%. - 81%
are worried that they could be hurt by Israelis in their daily life or
that their homes would be demolished and land confiscated. Only 19% are
not worried. - An
overwhelming majority of 81% believe that Israel’s long term aspiration
is to annex the land occupied in 1967 and expel its population or deny
them their political rights. By contrast, 63% believe that the long term
aspiration of the Palestinian Authority and the PLO is to recover part
or all of the land occupied in 1967. - 57%
of the public say that they supported the June 2014 kidnapping of the
three Israelis in the West Bank when that incident took place. Support
for the kidnapping reached 67% in the Gaza Strip and only 45% in the
West Bank. - Similarly,
a majority of 54% supported the killing of the three kidnapped Israelis
and 42% opposed it. Support for the killing reached 69% in the Gaza
Strip and only 42% in the West Bank. 52% of the West Bankers opposed the
killing of the three kidnapped Israelis. - The
public is divided over the identity of those who carried out the
kidnapping and the killing of the three Israelis: 32% accuse Israel, 30%
accuse Hamas, 21% believe a Palestinian acted on his own, and 2% accuse
Fatah. - In
the absence of viable negotiations, 85% support joining more
international organizations; 84% support joining the International
Criminal Court; 62% favor resort to popular non-violent resistance; 60%
support a return to an armed intifada; 42% support a dissolution of the
PA; and 24% support abandoning the two-state solution in favor of a
one-state solution. It is worth mentioning that two months ago only 41%
indicated support for a return to an armed intifada. - 61%
believe that massive popular demonstrations could contribute to ending
the Israeli occupation. But a larger majority of 72% favors the transfer
of Hamas’ armed approach to the West Bank. Support for emulating Hamas
in the West Bank stands at 70% among West Bankers and 74% among Gazans. - 82%
say they participate in boycotting Israeli goods that have local
alternatives and 18% say they do not participate in the boycott. An
overwhelming majority believes that the boycott movement is effective
and 11% believe it to be ineffective.
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