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世界気温 早ければ2030年にも1.5度上昇 IPCC特別報告書  
http://www.asyura2.com/18/kokusai24/msg/229.html
投稿者 うまき 日時 2018 年 10 月 08 日 14:51:03: ufjzQf6660gRM gqSC3IKr
 

(回答先: 地球温暖化の原因とされる世界の平均気温の上昇を産業革命前から、2030-2052年までに1.5度上昇に抑えるに抑えるのに 投稿者 怪傑 日時 2018 年 10 月 08 日 12:04:06)

世界気温
早ければ2030年にも1.5度上昇 IPCC特別報告書
2018年10月8日

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海面上昇で沈むことが懸念されているツバル・フナフティ環礁のバサフア島=2008年3月、田中泰義撮影
 国連の気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)は8日、地球温暖化の影響で早ければ2030年にも産業革命前からの平均気温上昇が1.5度に達し、サンゴ礁の大部分が死滅するなど地球環境の悪化が進むと予測した特別報告書を公表した。温暖化対策の国際的な枠組み「パリ協定」で目標とした2度上昇に比べ、海面上昇のリスクにさらされる人々を1000万人ほど減らせるなど、1.5度上昇に抑えることで被害を軽減できる可能性も示した。

<東京40度、深刻な熱中症…>温暖化が進んだ2100年ごろの日本
<暑いのに汗をかきにくい人は熱中症に要注意>
<おしっこの色が濃くなったら「脱水と熱中症」に注意>
<「おしっこの回数」と寿命の関係>
<猛暑の東京五輪>人体へのダメージ警告「そもそも競技してよいレベルではない」
 IPCCが13年に公表した第5次評価報告書などによると、化石燃料を燃やすなど人為的な温室効果ガス排出などにより、地球の平均気温は既に約1度上昇したと推測されている。6日まで韓国・仁川で開催されたIPCC総会で承認された報告書の要約によると、このまま温暖化が進めば2030〜52年の間に1.5度を超える可能性が高いと結論付けた。


上空から見たツバル。地球温暖化による海面上昇で国土が水没する恐れがある=2008年3月7日午後1時50分(日本時間2008年3月7日午前10時50分)、田中泰義撮影
 気温上昇を1.5度に抑えるために、人為的な二酸化炭素(CO2)の排出量を10年比で30年には45%減らし、50年ごろには実質ゼロにする「脱炭素化」の必要性を強く指摘した。それでも一時的には1.5度を超える可能性があるが、積極的な植林やCO2の地下貯留技術などで、温度上昇を抑制することも可能だとした。

 このほか、2100年までの約100年間の地球の平均海面上昇は、気温が2度上昇する場合には26〜77センチなのに対し、1.5度上昇では4〜16センチに抑制できると予測した。2度上昇する場合、夏の北極海で海水が凍結しない頻度が10年に1度としたのに対し、1.5度上昇では100年に1度ほどにとどまるとした。

■2度上昇でサンゴほぼ絶滅
 生物多様性の観点では、約10万5000種について調べた結果、2度上昇することで昆虫の18%、植物の16%、脊椎(せきつい)動物の8%が生息域を失うとしたが、1.5度上昇に抑えることで、そのリスクをおよそ半分に軽減できると予測。中でもサンゴ礁は2度上昇でほぼ絶滅すると悲観的だが、1.5度では10〜30%は生き残る可能性があるとした。

 IPCCは報告書で「誰もが安全で持続可能な世界を確保する上で、今後数年間の取り組みが極めて重要となる」と強調し、各国がさらに厳しく温室効果ガス削減に取り組むよう促した。

 15年に採択されたパリ協定は、全ての国が温室効果ガス排出の削減目標を自主的に定め、実行に移す仕組みだ。しかし、現状で各国が示す目標を全て達成したとしても、2度上昇は避けられない。既に海面上昇などにさらされる島しょ国を中心に「2度目標では不十分」との意見が根強く、気温上昇を1.5度へ抑える努力目標を協定に追加した経緯がある。特別報告書は12月にポーランド・カトウィツェで開催される気候変動枠組み条約第24回締約国会議(COP24)でパリ協定の実施指針を策定する上での重要な資料となる。【五十嵐和大】

■IPCC特別報告書の骨子
・産業革命前からの地球の平均気温上昇が早ければ2030年には1.5度に達する恐れ

・1.5度上昇に抑えることで、2度上昇に比べて海面上昇などのリスクを軽減できる

・50年にも温室効果ガス排出を実質ゼロとする「脱炭素化」が必要

・二酸化炭素の地下貯留などの実用化で、再び1.5度未満に戻せる可能性も

ことば・IPCC
 化石燃料を燃やすなど人為的な地球温暖化の予測と影響、対策などについて科学的知見を提供するため、国連環境計画(UNEP)と世界気象機関(WMO)が1988年に設立。現在は195カ国が加盟する。各国政府が推薦する科学者が公表された研究成果を集めて分析し、評価報告書として定期的に公表。国際交渉や各国政府の政策へ強い影響力がある。現在は第6次評価報告書の評価作業中で、2021年以降に三つの作業部会ごとの報告書が順次公表される。
https://mainichi.jp/articles/20181007/mog/00m/040/003000c  

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1. 2018年10月08日 14:58:02 : OO6Zlan35k : ScYwLWGZkzE[1621] 報告


気温1.5度上昇、2030年にも IPCC報告書
川村剛志、神田明美2018年10月8日10時00分

 国連気候変動に関する政府間パネル(IPCC)は8日、地球温暖化が現状のまま進めば、早ければ2030年にも世界の平均気温が産業革命前より1・5度上昇し、自然災害などのリスクも高まるなどと予測した特別報告書を公表した。1・5度に抑えたとしても、氷床の融解などによる海水面の上昇は2100年までに最大77センチに達するといい、沿岸部や島国の人々の暮らしに大きく影響しそうだ。

 地球温暖化対策の国際ルール「パリ協定」は、産業革命以降の気温上昇を2度未満、できれば1・5度未満に抑えることを目標にしている。1・5度に抑えた時の温暖化の影響などについての特別報告書を、温暖化問題の科学的評価で最も権威のあるIPCCがつくることになり、6日まで韓国で開かれていたIPCC総会で採択された。

 報告書によると、世界の平均気温は産業革命前よりすでに1度上昇している。10年間で0・2度ほどのペースで上昇しているとい、現状のままでは2030年から52年の間に、1・5度に達すると予測している。

 報告書は1・5度上昇した場合と2度上昇した場合の影響を比較している。

 例えば、海水面の上昇では、1・5度の場合は2100年までに、1986年〜2005年の水準に比べて26センチ〜77センチ上昇。2度上昇だとさらに海水面は10センチ高くなるといい、影響を受ける人はさらに最大1千万人多くなる。

 ログイン前の続き生態系については、1・5度上昇の場合、昆虫の6%、脊椎(せきつい)動物の4%、植物の8%の種が生息域の半分以上を失うが、2度上昇だと脊椎動物や植物で2倍に、昆虫では3倍に影響が広がるという。

 また、永久凍土が溶解する面積は、1・5度上昇に比べ、2度上昇では日本列島の6倍以上になる250万平方キロ増えるという。

 温暖化の影響は1・5度上昇でも大きいが、2度だとさらに深刻になる。

 報告書によると、気温上昇を1・5度に抑えて安定させるためには、2030年までに世界全体の年間の二酸化炭素(CO2)排出量を10年比で約45%削減する必要がある。50年ごろには、CO2排出を実質ゼロにする必要があるといい、その場合の世界の電源構成は再生可能エネルギーの割合が70〜85%、石炭火力発電はゼロに近づけなければならないと指摘している。

 12月にはポーランドで国連気候変動枠組み条約締約国会議(COP24)が開かれる。IPCCの特別報告書を受け、目標引き上げなどさらなる温暖化対策が議論される。(川村剛志、神田明美)

温室ガス削減、大幅強化が焦点
 12月にはポーランドで、国連気候変動枠組み条約締約国会議(COP24)が開かれる。IPCCの「1・5度特別報告書」を受け、各国が現状の温室効果ガス削減目標のレベルを高める方向で合意し、対策を大幅に強化する方向に動き出せるかが焦点となる。

 地球温暖化対策の国際ルール「パリ協定」に基づき、各国は温室効果ガスの削減目標を掲げている。しかし、目標を達成したとしても、2030年時点の世界全体の温室効果ガスの排出量は気温上昇を2度に抑えられるレベルよりも110億〜135億トン(二酸化炭素換算)多い。1・5度未満に抑えるレベルからすると160億〜190億トン多いという。

 条約締約国は20年までにいまの削減目標を見直すことになっている。1・5度特別報告書が「1・5度上昇に抑えるには、30年までに二酸化炭素の排出量を10年比45%削減」とした科学的知見を受け止め、COP24で「現状より高いレベルの削減目標に見直す」と合意し、各国が目標引き上げの議論を早急に始める必要がある。

 

 


 
http://www.ipcc.ch/
Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC)


http://www.ipcc.ch/scripts/_session_template.php?page=_48ipcc.htm
First Joint Session of Working Groups I, II and III and IPCC-48
Incheon, Republic of Korea, 1 - 5 October 2018

Letter of invitation to Focal Points and Ministries of Foreign Affairs
Letter of invitation to International and other Organizations

Documents for the 1st Joing Session of the Working Group I, II and III

WG-I, WG-II & WG-III: 1st/Doc. 1 - Provisional Agenda

The following documents:
WG-I, WG-II & WG-III: 1st/Doc 2a - Draft Summary for Policymakers
WG-I, WG-II & WG-III: 1st/Doc 2b - Draft Underlying Scientific Technical Assessment
WG-I, WG-II & WG-III: 1st/INF.1 - Collated comments from Governments on the Final Draft Summary for Policymakers

are available to government focal points, IPCC observer organizations and other authorised users in the pre-registration site.

Documents for the Forty-Eighth Session of the IPCC

IPCC-XLVIII/Doc. 1 - Provisional Agenda
IPCC-XLVIII/Doc. 1, Add. 1 - Provisional Annotated Agenda
IPCC-XLVIII/Doc. 2 - Draft Report of the 47th Session of IPCC
IPCC-XLVIII/Doc. 3 - Ad Hoc Task Group on Financial Stability
IPCC-XLVIII/Doc. 4, Rev. 1 - IPCC Scholarship Programme
IPCC-XLVIII/INF. 1, Rev.1 - Progress Report - International Conference on Climate Change and Cities
IPCC-XLVIII/INF. 2, Corr. 2 - Organization of the future work of the IPCC in light of the global stocktake
IPCC-XLVIII/INF. 3 - Progress Report - Task Force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
IPCC-XLVIII/INF. 4 - Expert Meeting on Short-Lived Climate Forcers
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INFORMATION FOR PARTICIPANTS

Information Note for participants (updated: 29 Sept 2018)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12S3dKrxj7c&feature=youtu.be

IPCC SR15 Press Conference Live Oct 8th 2018

10:28
good good morning everybody or good
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change to present the special report on
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global warming of 1.5 degrees
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let me introduce your your panelists
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today going on going from my left right
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to you I'm still mom on my left Valerie
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dr. who am Lee thank you Jonathan
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Thank You Jonathan then good morning I'm
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delighted to open this presentation to
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you of the IPCC's new special report on
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global warming of 1.5 degrees this is
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one of the most important reports ever
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produced by the IPCC and certainly the
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most keenly awaited when government's
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meeting in the United Nations Framework
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Convention on Climate Change known as un
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FG adopted the Paris agreement at
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the end of 2015 they invited the IPCC to
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prepare a report in 2018 on the impacts
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of global warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius
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and related emissions pathways why did
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they do that the Paris agreement sets a
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target of limiting global warming to
13:34
well below two degrees above
13:35
pre-industrial levels and pursuing
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efforts to limit limited to 1.5 degrees
13:42
Celsius at that time thanks to the IPCC
13:46
is our last assessment which is a fifth
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assessment report governments had a
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clear understanding of the implications
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of warming two degrees Celsius but
13:57
relatively little was known about 1.5
14:00
degrees and the IPCC report and the
14:03
scientific research it catalyzed was
14:07
intended to fill that gap
14:09
why 2018 because at the cut of each a
14:14
climate change convention in December
14:16
this year governments will review
14:19
progress on the Paris agreement in a
14:23
process known as a Talon OA dialogue it
14:26
was extremely challenging to produce a
14:29
cross disciplinary work cross
14:32
disciplinary report on this subject in a
14:35
relatively short time this is the first
14:38
time in our PCs history all three
14:41
working groups put their efforts
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together to produce this report IPCC
14:46
accepted the challenge framing the
14:49
report in the context of
14:50
sustainable development and eradicating
14:53
poverty we have now delivered after a
14:57
Killian effort by our authors and
15:00
experts and our bureau members the
15:03
culmination of this process was last
15:05
week's approval session here in Incheon
15:08
with representatives of our member
15:11
governments working with authors on the
15:15
summary for policy makers to ensure it
15:17
was a clear faithful representation of
15:20
the full report it was an intense and
15:24
passionate six days with many sleepless
15:28
night but always collegial and always
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respectful governments teased out the
15:37
essentials of the report in a spirit of
15:40
compromise drawing on the creativity of
15:43
the authors the result was a summary and
15:47
a report approved and accepted by all
15:50
our member governments this report is a
15:54
rich resource for governments
15:57
formulating climate policy areas policy
16:00
areas that affected by climate change
16:03
and a key input into coming climate
16:06
negotiations my colleagues will share
16:08
the key findings with you in a very
16:11
short minute of time let me give you the
16:14
highlights first climate change is
16:17
already affecting people ecosystems and
16:20
livelihoods all around the world second
16:23
limiting warming to 1.5 degrees is not
16:26
impossible but will require
16:29
unprecedented transitions in all aspects
16:32
of society third there are clear
16:35
benefits to keep warming to 1.5 D
16:37
researchers compared to two degrees or
16:40
higher every bit of warming matters
16:44
lastly the limiting warming to 1.5
16:47
degrees can go hand-in-hand with
16:49
achieving other world goals such as
16:53
achieving sustainable development and
16:56
eradicating poverty with that I would
16:59
like to hand over to Valerie the working
17:02
group co-chair
17:03
working group co-chair one thank you who
17:06
soon before we get on to presenting the
17:10
findings of the special report on one
17:12
point five degree global warming I'm
17:14
proud to unveil the draft cover page of
17:17
this special report an artist created
17:22
the piece of visual art on this front
17:24
cover having been inspired by a
17:27
scientific figure in the summary for
17:29
policy makers perhaps you can recognize
17:32
it
17:38
this is a very special report it has
17:42
attracted great interest from all around
17:44
the world which we can see reflected in
17:48
some of the following key statistics our
17:52
report is the outcome of the work of 91
17:55
dedicated lead authors and review editor
17:57
x' from 40 countries and the inputs of
18:00
133 contributing authors and as part of
18:05
the synthesis of new knowledge the
18:07
author's assess more than 6,000
18:09
scientific publications the successive
18:13
drafts of the report received more than
18:15
42,000 comments from more than thousand
18:19
experts and government reviewers world
18:21
wild with that I will now hand over to
18:25
my fellow co-chair pan Mao try to
18:28
introduce the key findings of the report
18:31
thanks Valerie today we are presenting a
18:35
summary of key findings from their
18:39
special report on global warming of 1.5
18:42
degrees Celsius you can find more detail
18:46
in a summary of the policymakers and
18:50
even more information in the underlying
18:52
report we begin with first a section of
18:57
SPM understanding global warming of 1.5
19:01
degrees Celsius we know that since
19:07
pre-industrial times human activity has
19:11
caused approximately one point degree
19:14
Celsius of global warming with likely
19:17
range between point one degrees C and
19:20
one point two degrees C we are already
19:24
seeing the consequence of one point
19:29
degree C of global warming through more
19:33
extreme weather rising sea levels and
19:36
diminishing octi sea ice among other
19:40
changes if the world continues to warm
19:45
at the current rate global temperature
19:49
is likely to reach
19:51
1.5 degrees C between 2030 to 2050 to
19:56
auto past the emission from the
20:01
pre-industrial times to the present we
20:04
continue to cause long-term changes in a
20:08
climate system this emission alone do
20:12
not commit it to the world of 1.5
20:17
degrees C moving on to the second
20:23
section of the SPM which deals with
20:26
projected climate change potential
20:29
impacts and associated risks models
20:35
project robust differences in climate
20:38
between present day and global warming
20:40
of 1.5 degrees and between 1.5 degrees
20:45
and 2 degrees every bit of extra warming
20:50
makes a difference
20:53
these differences include increases in
20:56
mean temperature on land and in the
21:00
oceans hot extremes where people live
21:03
heavy rainfall in several regions and
21:07
the probability of draught in some
21:10
regions by 2100 global mean sea level
21:15
rise would be around 10 centimeters
21:19
lower with global warming of 1.5 degrees
21:22
compared to two degrees this would mean
21:26
up to 10 million fewer people exposed to
21:30
the risk of rising seas loss of
21:36
biodiversity and species extinction are
21:41
projected to be lower with global
21:44
warming of 1.5 degrees compared to two
21:48
degrees limiting warming to 1.5 degrees
21:53
compared with two degrees would also
21:55
mean smaller reductions in the yields of
21:59
maize rice wheat and potentially other
22:03
cereal crops
22:04
particularly in sub-saharan Africa
22:08
Southeast Asia and Central and South
22:12
America the proportion of the world
22:16
population exposed to climate change
22:19
induced water shock shortages would be
22:23
up to 50 percent less with global
22:26
warming of 1.5 compared to two degrees
22:30
importantly this special report
22:33
highlights how all of these things
22:36
affect people's lives and livelihoods
22:39
around the world for example the impacts
22:43
of climate change in the oceans are
22:46
increasing risks to fisheries and
22:49
livelihoods that depend on them limiting
22:54
global warming to 1.5 compared to two
22:57
degrees would reduce the number of
23:00
people exposed to climate related risks
23:03
and susceptible to poverty by up to
23:07
several hundred millions by 2050
23:22
emissions and system transitions
23:25
consistent with 1.5 C of global warming
23:29
limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees
23:31
implies reducing emissions of carbon
23:34
dioxide by about 45 percent by 2030
23:38
compared to 2010 levels for comparison
23:42
in most pathways that limit global
23:44
warming to below 2 degrees C carbon
23:47
dioxide emissions declined by about 20
23:50
percent by 2030 to limit global warming
23:53
to 1.5 see global emissions of carbon
23:57
dioxide would need to reach net zero
24:00
around 2050 this means that any
24:03
remaining emissions would need to be
24:05
balanced by removing carbon dioxide from
24:08
the air for comparison pathways that
24:12
limit global warming to 2 degrees C
24:14
reach Net Zero around 2075
24:17
as part of limiting warming to 1.5 C
24:21
reducing emissions of substances other
24:23
than carbon dioxide that effect the
24:26
climate would improve air quality and
24:29
have direct and immediate health
24:31
benefits okay thank you Shukla I will
24:34
continue on the topic of system
24:36
transitions limiting warming to 1.5
24:39
degrees C implies changes on an
24:42
unprecedented scale
24:43
it means deep emission reductions in all
24:47
sectors the use of a wide range of
24:49
technologies behavior changes on a
24:52
significant increase of investment in
24:54
low-carbon options rapid progress is
24:58
already being made in some areas notably
25:01
renewable energy but this progress needs
25:04
to be picked up in other areas such as
25:06
transport or land management to limit
25:10
warming to 1.5 degrees C we would need
25:14
to start taking carbon dioxide out of
25:17
the atmosphere during the 21st century
25:20
the methods for doing this include
25:22
planting trees bioenergy combined with
25:25
carbon capture and storage changed
25:28
longish Land Management
25:30
as well as some novel approaches that
25:32
are very early stages of development
25:35
however carbon dioxide removal on a
25:38
large scale could have implications for
25:41
food security for ecosystems and for
25:44
biodiversity the pledges that
25:48
governments have made over the last
25:49
three years are not enough to keep
25:52
warming below 1.5 degrees C even with
25:56
ambitious and very challenging efforts
25:59
after 2030 carbon dioxide emissions
26:03
would need to decline substantially
26:05
before 2030 to avoid warming of more
26:09
than 1.5 degrees C in the middle of the
26:12
21st century followed by large-scale
26:15
carbon dioxide removal and at this point
26:18
I'll pass over to my working group to
26:20
colleague Deborah Roberts thanks so much
26:23
Jim and that brings us to the final
26:25
section of the summary for policy makers
26:27
which marks a new and important
26:30
innovation for the
26:31
assessments situating it within the
26:33
context of strengthening the global
26:35
response to climate change in the
26:37
context of sustainable development and
26:39
efforts to eradicate poverty climate
26:42
change impacts and how we choose to
26:44
respond to them are closely linked to
26:46
the sustainable development goals and
26:49
sustainable development these goals have
26:52
been put in place as a global
26:54
architecture to balance social
26:55
well-being economic prosperity and
26:58
environmental protection as part of the
27:01
response to achieving global warming of
27:04
1.5 degrees Celsius the mix of measures
27:07
we might choose to enact to adapt to
27:10
climate change
27:11
or options to reduce emissions will if
27:14
carefully selected have benefits for
27:16
meeting the sustainable development
27:18
goals this will obviously be most
27:21
effective when the actions of
27:23
governments are coordinated and when
27:24
local and regional governments and
27:26
decision-makers are supported by
27:28
national governments it's also important
27:31
that the strengthening the capacities of
27:33
national and sub-national authorities
27:35
and other stakeholders including civil
27:37
society the private sector indigenous
27:40
peoples and local communities can
27:42
support the ambitious actions that would
27:44
be required to limit global warming to
27:46
1.5 degrees Celsius International
27:49
Cooperation as we've seen this week is a
27:52
critical element for this to be achieved
27:54
in all countries for all peoples
27:56
especially for the developing countries
27:59
and vulnerable regions of the world this
28:02
completes our presentation of the key
28:03
findings of the special report on 1.5
28:06
degrees Celsius and just as pen mouths
28:08
stressed in the beginning these are
28:10
merely the key findings taken from our
28:13
summary for policymakers you can find
28:15
all of the details in the full document
28:17
and the underlying report thank you very
28:19
much on our hand over to Jonathan to
28:21
start the Q&A; session thank you very
28:24
much Deborah so we'll move on to the Q&A;
28:25
now and a reminder if you're following
28:28
this remote remotely you can send in
28:32
questions on slide oh that's SLI dot do
28:36
with the event code s r15 you must give
28:39
us your name and organization there
28:41
otherwise we can't take those questions
28:44
and as Deborah said you can find all
28:47
these materials on the website IPCC dot
28:51
CH so the summary for policy makers the
28:54
press release and also now the full
28:57
report in in the draft version sent out
29:01
to government's in June which is still
29:02
subject to copy editing and and
29:06
corrections and layout so any questions
29:11
in the in the room I see David Stockman
29:14
from the BBC please BBC News
29:24
every IPCC report I've covered suggests
29:28
that greenhouse gases need to be reduced
29:30
and usually urgently what's different
29:33
about this report what's new thank you
29:37
David I lost Valerie to take that that
29:41
the report the report is new in in
29:44
providing clear knowledge about
29:47
differences in risks and impacts for 1/2
29:50
degree warming with robust findings that
29:53
were not available at the time of the
29:55
last IPCC reports the AR 5 for different
29:58
regions for extremes for ecosystems
30:02
livelihoods it's very clear that half a
30:06
degree matters Thank You Valerie
30:18
please say who you are and where you're
30:21
from mr. Goddard German press agency
30:23
it's a question to all of the panel you
30:27
said one point five degree goal is
30:30
feasible it's you optimistic to achieve
30:35
that goal it's possible how optimistic
30:37
are you on a scale let's say from one to
30:39
ten and can you say why I also
30:42
optimistic to achieve it so question
30:45
feasibility maybe Jim would like to take
30:47
that one yeah one thing the report did
30:49
not aspire to do was to answer the
30:51
question of feasibility in a yes or no
30:54
way how we approached it rather than
30:57
number one too
30:58
we took six things we took identified
31:01
six different conditions that would need
31:03
to be met before
31:05
1.5 degrees was achievable and we
31:08
started with the very obvious ones is it
31:11
possible within the laws of physics and
31:13
chemistry to keep within 1.5 degrees
31:15
warming and we answered that question
31:18
positively we said it was possible
31:19
within the laws of physics and chemistry
31:21
and we also looked at other conditions
31:24
like do we have the technologies and the
31:26
kind of lifestyle changes available what
31:29
are the investment needs are they are
31:31
they credible but the last two points
31:34
are in terms of our conditions refer to
31:37
things that actually scientists can't
31:38
really answer because it's about the
31:40
political feasibility and the
31:42
institutional side of it this report was
31:45
specifically requested by the
31:48
governments who make up the UN Framework
31:50
Convention on Climate Change it's as was
31:53
said earlier it's the only named input
31:56
into the Talon or dialogue which will be
31:58
followed up in Poland in December and
32:01
frankly we've delivered a message to the
32:04
governments we've given them the
32:05
evidence and it's really up to the
32:07
governments to decide that last step of
32:09
feasibility and what can be done it's
32:12
their job we've done our job we've now
32:14
passed the message on and it's their
32:16
responsibility having invited us to
32:18
produce this report to decide whether
32:21
they can act on it thank you Jim I have
32:25
quite a few questions from outside the
32:27
room now so I'm gonna start with with
32:29
Seth Borenstein of The Associated Press
32:32
given that only 2% of the pathways
32:35
limited warming to 1.5 without overshoot
32:38
and the report says point blank there is
32:40
no definitive way to limit to 1.5
32:43
warming how optimistic are you that the
32:45
world will not exceed 1.5 degrees
32:48
especially with the u.s. pull out of
32:50
Paris I think that might be for Jim
32:53
again well just to say what the report
32:57
does rely on is the literature that's
33:01
out there IPCC does not do its own
33:03
research it reviews the literature and
33:06
we have not found literature out there
33:08
that looks at the degree at the specific
33:12
employee
33:12
occasions of the u.s. position on our on
33:15
the the probability of the feasibility
33:18
of 1.5 degrees C warming what we have
33:22
done is said what the countries of the
33:24
world collectively need to do and you
33:27
know we don't go specifically we never
33:30
go into looking at individual countries
33:32
when we produce our reports so we have
33:35
sent a clear signal to the collectivity
33:37
of countries the US as part of the
33:40
collectivity though it said it intends
33:42
to withdraw from Paris as soon as
33:44
possible so again the messages are there
33:46
clearly should it be the case that the
33:49
US withdrawal makes any difference to
33:51
its future emissions it leaves it as an
33:54
open question whether other countries
33:55
step in to fill the gap but again that's
33:58
not something for the scientists decide
34:00
that's for the countries of the world
34:06
clear that reducing greenhouse gas
34:09
emissions early on is needed to avoid
34:12
overshoot which means temporary
34:15
surpassing global warming of 1.5 degrees
34:18
Celsius and if we overshoot one point
34:22
five degree global warming then we would
34:25
rely on carbon dioxide removal to go
34:28
back to this level early action to limit
34:32
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as
34:34
possible there are options available
34:36
there are signs that mitigation is going
34:39
on but if this is to be achieved there's
34:42
an urgent need to accelerate thank you
34:48
have a question from Fiona Davis of
34:50
farmers for climate action in Australia
34:52
climate action is already damaging
34:55
agriculture around the world what
34:57
message does the panel have for
34:58
policymakers who are focused on
35:00
adaptation I think maybe hands and then
35:05
Tripler
35:09
and Deborah well they the point here is
35:13
it certainly is it to make is that
35:15
climate in action will have an impact a
35:18
negative impact on agriculture on cop
35:20
heels and and so forth but but any
35:24
approach involving mitigation approaches
35:27
certainly has consider side effects and
35:30
will have to be managed carefully and
35:32
under under these under these try
35:35
trade-offs the benefits would be larger
35:38
than any negative impact of of
35:41
mitigation action in the context of in
35:48
this the agriculture and the affect on
35:53
that from but the framing of this report
35:57
essentially has the the choice of four
36:01
pathways and which may come out from not
36:05
only technologically feasible but also
36:08
that that these are meeting the
36:10
ambitions which are shown also for the
36:13
sustainable development and the poverty
36:15
eradication and I think that issue is
36:18
very much close to the agriculture
36:21
development and so in a way the report
36:23
has many messages which comes out for
36:28
the sustainable development and poverty
36:31
eradication and then access with the one
36:35
point five degree climate change thank
36:38
you and any more questions in the room
36:39
or the moment I David Shaw come on the
36:43
gun please it's a question again about
36:47
feasibility when you look at the number
36:49
of countries that are extremely reliant
36:51
on coal for example or other fossil
36:54
fuels or the extent to which modern
36:56
economies rest on fossil fuels genuinely
37:00
hand on heart how feasible is this plan
37:03
of yours well this this is not a plan
37:08
David we are setting out the evidence
37:11
and the options that policymakers face
37:14
and it's very clear that in the
37:17
scenarios of pathways that we have
37:19
assessed in this report
37:21
that call use goes down very very
37:24
substantially by the middle of the 21st
37:26
century and this is an essential
37:29
component of any of the transitions that
37:31
you would need to keep global warming
37:33
within 1.5 degrees with with either no
37:36
or or limited overshoot so again that's
37:40
a that's a clear message to the
37:41
countries I mean we can't we can't
37:43
decide on country's energy policies we
37:45
have you 195 sovereign countries who
37:48
make up the Paris agreement and her
37:50
members of the Intergovernmental Panel
37:52
on Climate Change so we can tell them as
37:55
we were invited what would need to
37:58
happen to put you on that pathway but
38:00
the question as to whether this will
38:03
happen I have to repeat you the answer
38:06
to the previous question this is over to
38:08
the government's when they meet and pull
38:09
and later in the year and work on the
38:12
evidence that we have provided them with
38:15
thank you thank you Jim I have a
38:18
question from the Laura Laura Goering of
38:20
the Thomas Thomson Reuters foundation if
38:22
international cooperation is crucial to
38:24
achieving 1.5 degrees and we see huge
38:27
challenges to international cooperation
38:28
today how confident to you this reports
38:31
messages will be turned into effective
38:33
policy I think Jim you mobile to start
38:37
off from that one that maybe some to
38:39
come thank you I'm I appear to be
38:42
carrying I have a happy heavy load this
38:44
morning you know again you know the
38:47
enable the conditions that we identified
38:49
you for the the feasibility of 1.5
38:53
degree warming refers to the political
38:55
the institutional it includes the
38:57
concept of international cooperation so
39:01
again the message is that countries will
39:04
need to cooperate we don't have a
39:06
top-down agreement with Paris its bottom
39:09
up but they need to take collaborative
39:11
and coordinated action if we're actually
39:14
going to achieve a goal of 1.5 degrees
39:17
warming so I think that's that's kind of
39:20
all I can say it and the message is over
39:23
to governments at this stage we've told
39:25
you what you that the scientific facts
39:28
the evidence the course it is up to the
39:31
governments now to decide what to do
39:32
with them
39:34
Thank You Durham Oh handsome sir come on
39:37
up yeah maybe maybe just to add the
39:39
specifics to this rulebook for
39:42
implementing the Paris agreement is
39:44
currently being compiled under the UNF
39:47
to proceed negotiations and this report
39:50
comes just in time to inform the next
39:53
conference of the parties in Poland and
39:56
it will provide all the evidence that
39:59
governments need to finalize the whole
40:02
book and follow their own decisions that
40:05
they would like to to keep the world
40:07
significantly below 2 degrees if not
40:10
10.5 degrees and they have the first
40:13
time in in the history of the IPCC they
40:17
can draw connections between following
40:19
these these decisions and what it means
40:23
with respect to avoiding impacts as well
40:27
at what it means for people for
40:29
sustainable development for reducing
40:32
poverty and and the benefits of of
40:34
meeting the targets the sustainable
40:38
development goals of the United Nations
40:40
Thank You Hans have a question from
40:42
chelsea harvey of e and e news can you
40:45
comment on the extended carbon budget in
40:47
this report compared to the budget in
40:49
ar5 what country that's the fifth
40:51
assessment report what contributed to
40:53
that decision and to what extent is the
40:55
carbon budget for 1.5 degrees still
40:57
debated among scientists or subject to
40:59
uncertainty
41:00
I lost Valerie to take that one thank
41:03
you so the report is providing an update
41:05
of the estimated remaining carbon budget
41:08
compatible with limiting global warming
41:11
to 1.5 degrees Celsius
41:12
it relies on advanced methodologies to
41:16
account for the current level of warming
41:18
as well as to account for the effect of
41:20
of non co2 factors which also affects
41:23
the level of global warming as well as
41:25
air quality so the report is very clear
41:28
on the current understanding of the
41:30
remaining carbon budgets the sources of
41:33
uncertainties including possible
41:35
outcasting of greenhouse gases due to
41:37
permafrost thawing during the course of
41:39
the century and the next IPCC main
41:42
assessment report will revisit new
41:44
knowledge in the coming years based on
41:46
updated methods
41:47
and that's how science advances thank
41:53
you have a question from Ethan who
41:55
describes himself as Urbana Illinois but
41:58
I'm gonna take the question anyway
41:59
because it's an interesting one
42:00
what consumer aspects does the report
42:02
tackle what lifestyle changes do people
42:05
have to make to reduce their footprint
42:07
on the climate and I think that's for
42:09
Valerie to you it's an important
42:12
question we've talked about governments
42:15
but the report is also quite clear that
42:17
everyone has means to act related to
42:21
daily choices the report clearly shows
42:24
that behavior and lifestyles are
42:26
important elements of the feasibility of
42:29
limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees
42:31
Celsius it's also very clear that in
42:34
pathways that optimize the benefits for
42:37
sustainability for instance there are
42:40
the pathways with low energy demand
42:43
there are also elements related to diets
42:46
and the lowest imprint in greenhouse
42:48
gases associated with diets which are
42:50
important elements of feasibility thank
42:54
you very from Audrey turn of the Straits
42:57
Times in Singapore existing literature
43:00
stern 2007 has shown that deforestation
43:03
was responsible for more than 18 percent
43:05
of global emissions have recent findings
43:08
shown which should be more significant
43:09
in reducing emissions preventing
43:11
deforestation or moving away from fossil
43:14
fuels Wood Wood Shukla want to take that
43:16
one I'm not really an expert on the on
43:23
the forestry but when I say that that
43:26
the forestry is a very central to the
43:32
report in terms of the ambitions which
43:35
are shown by the governments or not only
43:39
on the mitigation side of the ambition
43:42
but also the emissions on the
43:44
sustainable development which are very
43:48
closely connected with the forestation
43:51
yeah well we find that that the findings
43:54
that we have in the report very much
43:57
issues that that well the the decreasing
44:01
and of deforestation is sustainable as
44:05
physical search and also combined with
44:08
the application options the array of
44:12
that maybe this is one of the major
44:15
findings with this report Thank You
44:21
Valerie
44:21
yes we've talked previously also about
44:23
carbon dioxide removal and the report
44:26
has an important finding that measures
44:28
such as the restoration of natural
44:30
ecosystems and soul carbon sequestration
44:33
can provide benefits for improved by
44:36
diversity soul quality as well as local
44:39
food security so these are important
44:41
findings of the report related to land
44:43
use thank you gentleman in the front row
44:46
could you say who you are please when
44:48
you when you get the microphone
44:49
microphone please Thank You Marlo hood
44:58
with a Jones Falls press vanity you you
45:02
mentioned that the report quantifies
45:06
possible impact of permafrost melting on
45:11
the carbon budget is that the first time
45:15
that if no all right I'll let you
45:17
correct me let me ask my question anyhow
45:18
is that the first time that a Earth
45:23
System feedback has been quantified in
45:26
an IPCC report and how difficult is it
45:28
in general to quantify those feedbacks
45:31
within climate models and will you be
45:33
able to do more of that in the future so
45:37
the report provides an estimated amount
45:39
of greenhouse gas emissions associated
45:42
with permafrost thawing that is
45:45
associated with elements of uncertainty
45:48
related to remaining carbon budgets but
45:50
I would like to be very clear that's the
45:53
key message of the report is that if you
45:55
would like to stabilize global warming
45:57
to 1.5 degrees Celsius the key message
46:00
is that net co2 emissions at the global
46:03
scale must reach zero by 2050 and that's
46:07
the most important part of the most
46:09
important finding of the reports
46:13
any other questions in the room at the
46:15
moment okay so from David borrowers of
46:23
freedom from poverty and Australia how
46:26
long do we have left you act before it
46:28
will be impossible to keep it to 1.5
46:30
degrees
46:35
yeah Valerie will have n Jim the report
46:39
shows that we are at the crossroads and
46:42
what is going to happen from now until
46:45
2030 is critical especially for co2
46:49
emissions yeah I mean can I just echo
46:54
what Valerie said the reporter sent a
46:56
very clear message that if we don't act
46:59
now and have substantial reductions in
47:02
carbon dioxide emissions over the next
47:04
decade we are really making it very
47:07
challenging to impossible to keep
47:10
warming below 1.5 degrees so that this
47:13
is very clear message I wonder if I may
47:15
pick up on a response to one of the
47:18
previous questions the one that asked
47:21
about avoided deforestation there or
47:24
fossil fuels can I just make the comment
47:27
that Singh option X or option Y is not
47:32
the way this report is framed the word
47:35
or does not work in relation to the
47:38
ambition of 1.5 degrees warming the only
47:41
linking word you can use is and there is
47:43
a very clear message that in the
47:46
pathways that we have assessed that all
47:48
options need to be exercised in order to
47:51
achieve the kind of level of ambition of
47:54
1.5 degrees we can make choices about
47:57
how much of each option we use and
48:00
trade-off a bit between them but the
48:02
idea that you can leave anything out is
48:04
not possible so the key thing is option
48:07
X and option Y and option Z it is the
48:11
only option we really have you to
48:13
achieve this kind of level of ambition
48:18
anything else in the room
48:20
so from Alexander Kirk of King's College
48:23
London
48:24
you mentioned behavior changes of
48:26
populations must alter can you elaborate
48:28
on this I think do you wanna take that
48:35
thank thank you Jonathan yes I mean
48:38
behavioral change is a key part of the
48:41
you know emission pathways and the the
48:44
system transitions that we've looked at
48:46
and frankly the more we are prepared to
48:50
make changes to behavioral patterns that
48:53
reduce greenhouse gas emissions the less
48:55
we would rely need to rely later in the
48:58
21st century on perhaps more difficult
49:00
options that we don't yet fully
49:02
understand like some of the carbon
49:05
dioxide removal options I think it's
49:09
worthwhile saying that in terms of
49:10
behavior change this is something that
49:12
also connects to the other sustainable
49:15
development goals and the waddled goals
49:17
that Deborah talked about earlier there
49:21
are we are currently working on an IPCC
49:23
special report on climate change in land
49:25
which will include the idea of food
49:28
systems as a whole including the
49:30
question of dietary changes in the
49:32
demand side on what is very clear there
49:35
is that there are lots of reasons other
49:38
than climate change for shifting diets
49:41
if we changed our diets to fulfill
49:44
health recommendations we would all live
49:47
longer we bounced around much more and
49:49
have much nicer lives and we would
49:52
reduce like greenhouse gas emissions
49:54
so let's look at the optimistic side of
49:57
this climate change mitigation is not
49:59
necessarily abundant in terms of climate
50:01
change it can bring other benefits as
50:04
well and I think we need to hold on to
50:06
that that factor thank you
50:12
I have a question from umeå orphan of
50:16
Fox assault Vox
50:18
can you elaborate on the use of carbon
50:20
dioxide removal as a tactic how feasible
50:23
is it to cap warming at 1.5 degrees
50:25
without any carbon dioxide removal so I
50:28
think again Jim
50:30
others may want to come in so thank you
50:32
thank you once again Jonathan yeah we we
50:35
we have not identified any pathways that
50:38
that get to 1.5 degrees C without some
50:41
form of carbon dioxide removal at some
50:45
point to stabilize global warming at any
50:47
level we need to take as much carbon
50:51
dioxide out of the atmosphere as we put
50:54
in there for carbon dioxide removal is
50:57
unavoidable but there is more than one
50:59
way of doing it on some of the options
51:02
relating to land management and forestry
51:05
practices they are well established and
51:08
what we need or would need are the
51:10
incentives on the kind of structures to
51:13
enable these options to be taken off on
51:15
as we've said and replies to previous
51:17
questions the more we are prepared to
51:20
contemplate early action that includes
51:22
behavior change the less we would need
51:25
to rely on the more difficult options
51:28
like carbon of carbon dioxide removal
51:30
like bioenergy with carbon capture and
51:34
storage
51:34
there are many scenarios we have
51:37
identified that don't use bioenergy with
51:39
carbon capture and storage to some
51:41
degree but there are one or two so it is
51:44
not impossible to keep 21.5 without
51:48
bioenergy with carbon capture and
51:49
storage but it will need enormous ly
51:52
ambitious progress in other areas
51:55
Valarie yes just a point of
51:57
clarification there's a need in the
52:00
pathways to offset residual emissions of
52:03
co2 and other greenhouse gases for
52:06
instance from transport and agriculture
52:08
and that's related with the need to
52:10
deploy negative greenhouse gas emissions
52:14
or carbon dioxide removal just a point
52:16
of clarification thank you
52:18
question from Joydeep gupta of third
52:20
pole and india climate dialogue the
52:22
summary for policy makers warns of the
52:24
danger of shifting food cropland to
52:27
biofuels
52:28
in a one point five degree world how
52:30
serious is this threat may be hands can
52:32
start on that and
52:35
it it is not not really necessary to
52:38
fully shift to biofuels there are other
52:40
ways of of providing energy and for the
52:44
transport sector there are other aspects
52:47
that have been looked at in the context
52:50
of the report like like co2 recycling
52:53
synthetic fuels and and so forth
52:56
certainly there there will be
52:57
competition for land if the biofuel
53:00
sector is is the one that policymakers
53:03
are fully supporting but they would have
53:06
to consider the trade-offs involved
53:09
Thank You Hans Valerie yes I think a
53:12
value of the report is to provide an
53:14
exaustive assessment not just of climate
53:17
response options but also the synergies
53:19
and trade-offs that they provide with
53:21
respect to the multiple dimensions of
53:23
sustainability and that's an example
53:26
where you clearly see potential
53:28
trade-offs for other options such as
53:31
restoration of ecosystems you don't have
53:34
these trade-offs and you maximize
53:35
synergies and these are important
53:38
elements to consider for policymaking
53:41
thank you I have a question from Eric
53:44
holthouse of Grist which we're gonna
53:48
break our rule here and allow everyone
53:50
to speak on this one who wants what did
53:53
it feel like personally as humans to
53:56
assemble this report it feels like a
53:59
very critical moment in history did you
54:01
feel the weight of that history during
54:03
your work or start with Valerie I must
54:06
say it's a tremendous collective
54:08
endeavor we prepared the report in a
54:12
stringent timeline and it was amazing to
54:15
see the level of involvement of the
54:17
authors the research community and the
54:20
new publications that were published
54:22
timely to feed the knowledge in the
54:24
report and the dedication of everyone so
54:27
for me it's a it's an extraordinary
54:29
collective adventure thank you other
54:32
other any other humans on the panel I'd
54:33
like to address
54:35
well I I think I would say that that we
54:37
did feel the weight of of working with
54:44
this report but it was not a burden at
54:47
all yeah and so I think like the
54:50
enthusiasm to get into the different
54:54
corners of science which is not only
54:57
been examined now we are petite gonna
55:00
increasingly towards the exhaustive
55:03
space which now is sinking space
55:06
somewhere and that I think the report
55:08
shows that there well there is this at
55:10
that space but the space is shrinking
55:12
and that we would be we can still do it
55:17
as a universal humanity and so I think
55:22
that was the kind of spirit and the kind
55:25
of wait with us of the burden that that
55:28
that otherwise look like insurmountable
55:30
but it was never about and actually that
55:32
it was something which was a very very
55:35
but I would say very imp and it gives
55:40
you a kind of an enchantment to be a
55:44
part of a process of this kind Thank You
55:46
Hans
55:47
yeah and enhancing in addition to the
55:50
tremendous work but by our scientists
55:53
and Bureau members I must recognize that
55:57
there were five countries who supported
56:01
the process of production of this
56:04
special report hosting the scoping
56:07
meeting as well as the four lead author
56:09
meetings and in addition to that and
56:12
there were one or ninety five member
56:14
governments who lively discussed and
56:17
improved somebody for policymakers and
56:20
we are very grateful to those
56:22
governments as to those governments who
56:25
supported IPC's activity in particular
56:27
with regard to the special report Thank
56:29
You mr. enhance yes certainly the
56:32
preparation of this report which
56:34
involved a huge interdisciplinary effort
56:37
from physics physics to to the social
56:40
scientists was a benefit in itself but
56:43
it also comes with some wishful thinking
56:46
that the message is that this
56:48
port conveys are being taken up by the
56:51
public by the policymakers by
56:54
governments and that the urgency of the
56:57
issue is being seen because climate
57:00
change is is shaping the future of our
57:03
civilization if action is not taken it
57:07
will take the planet into an
57:09
unprecedented climate future if we
57:12
compare it to what has happened during
57:14
all of human evolutionary history so the
57:17
scale of of the changes that we are
57:20
experiencing in the climate system is
57:23
unprecedented the scale of the changes
57:26
that humans would have to implement in
57:28
order to keep climate change under
57:31
control is unprecedented
57:33
so it's a challenge for human
57:34
civilization and this report is
57:37
therefore a milestone in conveying that
57:40
message to human society Hugh Jim
57:44
the few minutes have given me a chance
57:46
to recover my my humanity severely
57:50
challenged after 11 straight days in
57:52
this conference centre some of some of
57:54
them day and night I mean I I think for
57:58
me it was very clear for the approval
58:00
session and the intensity of the some of
58:02
the discussions just how important this
58:05
report is and how seriously countries
58:08
took it on how hard they worked with the
58:11
scientists to produce on something that
58:14
we could all agree on but I also wanted
58:17
to echo something that Hans said we have
58:20
three working groups in IPCC on the
58:23
physical science on impacts and
58:24
mitigation the fact that this was
58:27
produced through a joint session of the
58:29
three working groups is a substantial
58:31
achievement it has created an
58:33
unprecedented degree of
58:35
interdisciplinarity into the IPCC
58:38
process which we intend to carry out
58:41
through the sixth assessment cycle and
58:44
this is partly because we've had to work
58:46
together but the other reason it's
58:48
worked is because we like working
58:50
together we like each other and we've
58:52
made new friends so there is an
58:54
unprecedented set of conditions you for
58:57
IPCC to work in a more cohesive way I
58:59
think as a result of this initiative
59:02
thank you anything Valerie wants to come
59:04
back I'm not to say for my feeling
59:08
because you know this special report we
59:10
for preparation we only have very
59:12
limited time and we're all very hard and
59:15
after the final gathered gavel down and
59:19
all the people here the cheered up and
59:21
still celebrate for this you know prove
59:24
of this special report and I really feel
59:28
very excited with you or our effort
59:31
deserves you know and we really produce
59:35
very objective and balanced special
59:43
report for global warming on 1.5 degrees
59:46
C thank you thank you Abdallah Thank You
59:51
Jonathan I am just secretary here we are
59:55
just facilitator all the work who have
59:57
have been done by scientists and culture
60:00
but I want to highlight three
60:02
demonstration the achievement of this
60:06
report is first is here because it was a
60:12
good collaboration between scientists
60:15
second it was also of good manifestation
60:21
of the collaboration at Anton national
60:24
level we spent six day but at the end
60:27
everybody adopt this report the third
60:31
demonstration is related to efficiency
60:34
of IPCC we asked in 2015 we invited by
60:40
enough Triple C to deliver a product to
60:43
be useful for next cop in Calcutta which
60:46
we delivered and this is a kind of
60:49
demonstration I will conclude by also
60:53
one key elements for the success of this
60:56
report if is related the contribution
61:01
for the host countries and I want to
61:04
address a special thank to Korea
61:07
Republic of Korea who from the beginning
61:13
from
61:14
the address for his Excellency the
61:17
president of Republic of Korea and as
61:20
well as all the facilities during this
61:22
week demonstrated that achieving 1.5
61:26
degrees is possible thank you very much
61:30
thank you Bella
61:30
Valerie I will try to summarize these
61:33
this in a few words nothing is
61:36
impossible when you build on collective
61:38
human intelligence yes another question
61:51
from Seth Borenstein of Associated Press
61:54
what's the message you have to small
61:56
island nations and other vulnerable
61:58
areas and the poor given that they think
62:00
1.5 degrees is a matter of life and
62:03
death for them and the report does not
62:05
give them any possibilities it can be
62:07
done so maybe hands will start with that
62:09
and I would not I would not agree on the
62:14
on the last part of the statement in in
62:18
terms of what what can be done or not I
62:21
think all the intervention that we've
62:23
heard so far indicate it is possible it
62:26
depends on the political will to
62:28
implement it depends on political
62:31
leadership to take this this message on
62:34
and it's it's within the scope of what
62:38
you humans can achieve certainly we are
62:41
already seeing impacts and we all seem a
62:45
challenges but the good news is that if
62:48
we can keep climate change under control
62:51
there will be benefits that that go
62:53
across sectors from from ecosystems to
62:57
humans to human societies and there will
63:00
also be benefits to the small small
63:02
island states and and the changes may
63:07
stay within the scope of their
63:09
possibilities to adapt to these changes
63:12
because certainly one message is clear
63:15
if humankind wants to keep climate
63:18
change at 1.5 degrees and needs to be a
63:21
strong effort in in mitigating climate
63:25
change and avoiding
63:28
impacts more of those dangerous impacts
63:31
of climate change but we all need to
63:33
adapt to a different climate future and
63:37
the stronger we are and the more
63:40
successful we are with respect to
63:43
keeping climate change at at one point
63:46
four five degrees the more this will be
63:49
within the scope of our adaptive
63:51
capacity with your hands buttering yes I
63:54
will try to formulate this with my words
63:56
to avoid poverty traps for many people
63:59
and many regions sustainable development
64:02
goes hand in hand with climate action
64:04
mitigation also but adaptation as well
64:07
and as a need as expressed in the report
64:10
to strengthen adaptation capacities in
64:12
many regions thank you and I have two
64:15
questions that cover similar ground so
64:19
firstly from Kate Aaron off of the
64:20
intercept can you elaborate on what the
64:22
implications of this report are for
64:25
continued fossil fuel usage how soon
64:28
would call oil and gas respectively need
64:31
to be phased out of energy systems and
64:33
then from Jeremy Hawkins of interagency
64:36
newswire from a quick scan the report
64:39
seems to underline that very rapid
64:41
reductions in carbon in carbon dioxide
64:43
emissions are now needed what do the
64:45
rates of emission reduction in the
64:46
report tell us about how quickly the
64:48
world will need to stop burning coal for
64:50
electricity
64:51
I think the ball has passed me with me
64:57
once again on this one
64:59
and the reporter is quite clear I mean
65:02
there's a figure in there below which
65:05
there's a table showing the specific
65:08
shares of different fossil fuels in
65:11
energy systems by 2050 under four
65:15
different pathways compatible with 1.5
65:18
degrees C warming and the messages are
65:21
first of all that coal will have to be
65:24
reduced very very substantially by the
65:27
middle of the century call it has the
65:30
highest carbon content of all the fossil
65:33
fuels at the other end of the spectrum
65:35
there are still space for natural gas
65:37
within the mix especially if it is
65:41
you know combined with carbon capture
65:43
and storage which would continue to be
65:47
allow it to be used and play a
65:48
contribution to electricity supply
65:50
systems the role of oil is interesting
65:54
because one of the other messages in the
65:56
report is that as well as reducing the
65:58
carbon intensity of electricity it then
66:02
it also makes sense to use electricity
66:04
more extensively in final energy demand
66:07
so the electrification of energy demand
66:11
becomes very important and that's the
66:13
factor that leads to reductions in oil
66:16
demand in the scenarios particularly as
66:19
the transport sector begins to
66:21
decarbonize through the greater use of
66:24
electrification or other low-carbon
66:27
means of transport so I think the
66:29
messages are quite quite clear on the
66:32
fossil fuels we have four different
66:34
illustrative ways in which governments
66:36
could think about how to keep global
66:39
warming within 1.5 degrees on the all
66:42
involve really quite significant changes
66:44
in the pattern of fossil fuel use thank
66:48
you the report clearly also shows that
66:54
that the options which Jim just
66:56
mentioned are available the question
67:00
that which is discussed by the report
67:04
and and say there is certain and an end
67:08
of ideas is in in case of the transition
67:13
from the fossil fuel or towards a kind
67:18
of a more sustainable and a lookup and
67:24
resources that it could be a lot of room
67:27
still left there is no need to panic
67:30
actually that that that the fossil fuels
67:34
will have to be phased out and the
67:36
standard assets can be generated the
67:38
what report argues and also informs us
67:44
is that that what we need is the
67:47
redirecting of the investments which are
67:49
otherwise moving towards the the
67:52
facilities and how this can be made
67:55
Julie shifted and then can get aligned
67:57
with the various new options which are
67:59
opening up both on the demand side and
68:01
the supply side and so there is a space
68:04
here to make the transition which would
68:08
not be unsustainable in terms of losing
68:11
jobs etc which is right on the top of
68:14
the power the policymakers mindset in
68:16
that day but but we'll have to
68:18
creatively use this existing space
68:20
before it closes it thank you I have a
68:23
rather cross-disciplinary question from
68:26
David Fogarty of The Straits Times which
68:29
will start off with Jim but maybe others
68:30
want to come in on governments Sabine
68:32
urged should take stronger action for
68:34
years yet climate policies collectively
68:36
are far behind what's needed what will
68:38
be the one big thing that will drive
68:40
stronger policy action more extreme
68:43
deadly weather events voter pressure
68:45
business investment decisions well I
68:48
think the difference about this report
68:50
is this wasn't something that the
68:52
scientists came forward with and
68:55
presented to governments on you without
68:57
any prior initiation the government
69:00
specifically asked for this report and
69:03
that I think is is what what the big
69:05
difference is so we're seeing a a signal
69:09
of willingness to take action on the
69:11
part of governments and what we've done
69:13
is is to provide the evidence for it and
69:18
you know this is more for my colleagues
69:20
like Hans on on the impact side but you
69:24
know we we are seeing the kinds of
69:26
changes in weather patterns that IPCC
69:30
has been predicting over several reports
69:33
so the predictions are coming true and I
69:36
think that that could be an important
69:38
factor Thank You Hans yeah maybe maybe I
69:43
can add to this with two examples
69:45
concerning my own country I'm coming
69:47
from from Germany and I see two
69:50
successes that may shape policies in the
69:55
near future and may even cause a change
69:57
in tides if you want to call it that way
70:00
one of them is that this report got
70:02
approved and certainly before we got it
70:04
approved there were some question marks
70:06
about it governments are
70:09
now getting the motivation to stand by
70:13
the Paris agreement and end its
70:15
implementation and the second more
70:18
symbolic move was that by the ruling of
70:22
a court and by combined with a mass
70:25
protest against the destruction of him a
70:30
very large and important ecosystem in in
70:36
the area where the brown coal mining is
70:39
currently still going on in Germany this
70:41
destruction of ecosystem has been
70:44
stopped and they have been fifty to
70:46
sixty thousand people on the on the
70:49
roads in the demonstration supporting
70:52
the prevention of of this destruction so
70:55
there is a mentality in civil society
70:58
wanting reasonable climate policies in
71:02
place and it's a combination of all of
71:05
these that that is important in the
71:08
changes that are ahead of us in
71:10
supporting the decisions that need to be
71:12
taken very shortly in order to support
71:17
the transformation that we need to go
71:19
through Thank you very
71:20
yes we spoke about the energy system we
71:24
spoke about agricultural systems or
71:27
forestry but there are many multiple
71:29
dimensions in the report with respect to
71:32
the question I really think that the
71:34
question asked to us by governments
71:36
places a strong emphasis on the
71:39
near-term and the report provides
71:41
multiple elements about options to
71:43
accelerate transitions in systems such
71:46
as infrastructure industry euro burns
71:49
systems what are the enabling conditions
71:52
for each option and how to maximize
71:54
benefits for wellbeing for all and I
71:56
think that's really new within IPCC
71:58
reports to provide such an exhaustive
72:01
assessments available for policy makers
72:03
with respect to near-term options
72:06
thank you yes please yes the question of
72:11
policy really boils down to the two
72:13
factors one is cost of the policy the
72:16
second is the societal acceptability of
72:20
that policy
72:21
now the
72:22
in terms of cost the renewable cost is
72:26
showing a very rapidly declining over
72:30
recent experiences and there's such a
72:33
technological improvement in new tech
72:35
news of low-carbon technologies will
72:40
continue to improve and secondly it
72:43
depends also the cost depends upon the
72:47
expected quantity of emissions
72:50
reductions required if demand future
72:55
energy demand can be provided with
72:59
improved energy efficiency then the
73:03
required emissions reductions will be
73:05
much less than everyone can expect in
73:09
this in this room therefore the cost
73:13
evolution depends upon what will happen
73:18
to the renewables renewables cost as
73:21
well as what happens to the efficiency
73:25
development for the energy demand sector
73:28
in terms of the societal acceptability
73:32
the government depending upon its
73:35
national circumstances has every right
73:38
every every right and every power to
73:43
pursue the equitable and just equitable
73:47
and acceptable for its own populations
73:52
so that the cost apart the cost of
73:55
policy could be minimized and acceptable
73:58
to their own constituencies thank you we
74:02
have just under half an hour to go
74:04
plenty of questions from outside are
74:07
there any questions in the room yeah
74:11
lady in the second row please identify
74:14
yourself
74:20
my name is Jennifer murders I have a
74:23
question about the oil there's no
74:27
mention of the oil in the summer so I
74:28
would like to know if there it will be
74:30
mentioned in the main report or if so
74:33
I'd like to know why thank you
74:37
good Jim yeah it's if you look at one of
74:41
the figures which has a lot of tabular
74:44
information underneath it you will see
74:46
information on oil oil in there so it is
74:48
covered and if you do a deep dive into
74:51
the report once that's out these topics
74:54
will be covered thank you another croc
74:59
cross-disciplinary question from Kate
75:01
Redman of climate sphere what are the
75:03
biggest benefits of meeting the 1.5
75:05
degree target so we'll start with
75:07
Valerie and that was joinin there are
75:11
multiple benefits on with respect to
75:13
limiting exposure of many people to
75:16
increase increases in climate and
75:20
weather extreme events such as heat
75:22
waves and heavy rainfall events for
75:24
instance and Hans could complement this
75:28
with the ecosystem perspective yes
75:31
certainly I mean the benefits are
75:33
clearly in the avoided impacts and in
75:36
the sustainability of of climate future
75:40
so there is reduced damages to
75:42
ecosystems for example there the losses
75:46
of the warm water coral reefs that are
75:48
already suffering from from climate
75:50
change could be could be reduced and at
75:55
least some of these ecosystems could
75:57
could be maintained there are benefits
76:00
to to human health because changing the
76:02
energy system means reducing pollution
76:05
and keeping climate change at balance
76:09
means reducing the number of mortalities
76:14
due to two heat stress and due to the
76:17
risk redistribution of disease vectors
76:21
there are benefits to the economy
76:23
because there are impacts of climate
76:25
change on economic roles especially in
76:28
the tropics
76:29
and subtropics so all of these impacts
76:33
can be reduced by by maintaining the
76:38
climate goals is formulated in the Paris
76:40
agreement Thank You Valerie turn to come
76:43
back a lot yes the report shows that by
76:45
limiting the level of global warming and
76:47
reducing greenhouse gas emissions
76:49
slowing the rate of sea-level rise
76:52
during this century facilitates
76:54
adaptation to rising seas for for
76:57
instance for low-lying areas like here
76:59
in Incheon and it may avoid triggering
77:03
the irreversible loss of the Greenland
77:06
and Antarctic ice sheets and committing
77:07
to multiple sea level rise in the
77:09
following centuries thank you so a
77:14
question from again from Laurie Goering
77:16
of the Thomson Reuters foundation how
77:19
much more stark are the warnings about
77:21
displacement from sea level rise risks
77:23
and water scarcity food harvest losses
77:25
etc in this report than in previous
77:28
reports so I think that's one four hands
77:31
well this this becomes a very important
77:35
message because clearly this report has
77:37
shown that 0.5 degrees make a difference
77:40
and it is clearly as we have elaborated
77:45
in in in the last set of replies that
77:47
the impacts of climate change can be
77:51
reduced largely by keeping global
77:53
warming to 1.5 compared to 2 degrees of
77:56
global warming yeah I want to insist
78:02
that there are really multiple findings
78:04
from the report assessments that stress
78:07
how much risk can be avoided by limiting
78:10
global warming at one point five degree
78:12
compared to two degrees and several
78:15
levels of risk have been revised
78:17
compared to the last IPCC assessment
78:19
report based on new knowledge and they
78:22
have been revised upwards thank you I
78:26
have a question from Alexander Kaufman
78:29
of the Huffington Post is it fair to say
78:31
it's unrealistic that a carbon pricing
78:34
scheme alone could keep warming within
78:36
1.5 degrees something Valarie in German
78:38
that me yeah Jim
78:41
okay the the the underlying report
78:44
refers to a mixture of different policy
78:49
instruments that could could be used to
78:51
help limit the emissions compatible with
78:54
1.5 degrees C warming and certainly
78:58
carbon pricing would be one among that
79:01
portfolio of instruments that could be
79:03
used there are some areas where carbon
79:05
pricing may not be the most appropriate
79:08
approach in fact and in fact if other
79:10
complementary approaches are kept it may
79:13
be that carbon prices can be kept lower
79:15
overall one thing to flag is if we are
79:20
going to take carbon dioxide out of the
79:22
atmosphere is that people do need
79:25
incentivized and given the signals to be
79:27
able to do it and it's perhaps in that
79:30
area that carbon pricing is going to be
79:33
important
79:34
you know renewable energy can actually
79:37
be cheaper than fossil fuels in terms of
79:40
generating electricity but you can never
79:42
be cheaper if you've added carbon
79:45
capture and storage to a fossil fuel
79:47
plant it's always an add-on cost and
79:49
therefore carbon pricing and the right
79:52
economic signals it would be actually an
79:54
essential part of the mix if that's
79:57
going to be an important part of the
79:59
portfolio thank you from Daisuke Dallara
80:04
of canal de la favela in Argentina how
80:07
do you expect this report to really
80:09
impact on political decision making and
80:11
the different governments maybe Jim
80:14
wants to start off with that well well
80:17
when I get back to the UK first thing
80:20
I'm going to do in wedyn ste morning is
80:22
going to the UK Parliament to give a
80:24
talk on the report aimed at
80:28
parliamentarians who are going to
80:31
consider this you know I think we can
80:33
only speak about our own countries the
80:35
UK government has said that it will
80:38
invite its independent experts to
80:41
provide advice on mid century targets
80:44
and NetZero as soon as this report
80:46
Rowlands on the minister's desk so I
80:48
think you can actually see that progress
80:50
will begin to take place you know people
80:53
are responding to this report a number
80:56
of countries around the world have
80:58
already penciled net zero targets into
81:01
their legislation so I think we're
81:03
beginning to see the signs of the
81:05
progress that would really pick up on
81:07
the report I'm in the same situation I'm
81:11
expected to report back to the French
81:13
Senate on Wednesday morning on the key
81:15
findings from the report but I think
81:18
it's not just about our governments and
81:21
I really like would like to see the
81:23
report shared very broadly with a civil
81:25
society and with students in
81:28
universities all around the world I
81:29
think the knowledge recessed in the
81:31
report is giving keys on how to act to
81:34
multiple people not only governments and
81:37
I wish it's shared as broadly as
81:39
possible and we try to have an effort
81:42
with clarity both in the text and
81:44
figures so that it can be more easily
81:46
understood by anyone thank you
81:52
well I would add that as we also had
81:56
towards the home in on the next Monday
82:00
we will have a workshop organized by the
82:04
Ministry of Environment in India with
82:07
some other NGOs and we're increasingly
82:13
seeing is that that with many other
82:15
outreach events which are being set up
82:17
in in Asia that there is a kind of not
82:22
only expectations which were there from
82:24
this report but this report could be
82:26
becoming an anchor for various other
82:28
activities and various other elements of
82:33
sustainable development etc and so this
82:35
can be a kind of a platform on which
82:39
they use amount of discussions on the
82:42
technological transitions on the
82:43
sustainable goals etc would be framed
82:46
where the climate change provides the
82:48
kind of long-term view to this entire
82:51
transformation which could be happening
82:52
thank you pan now getting obviously the
82:57
same for China cause to think even for
83:02
this approval setting they are there
83:06
were 15
83:07
from China I think they're all were
83:10
informed about the outcome of this
83:13
special pot and we also have several
83:16
lead artists participated you know
83:19
involved in the drafting of this special
83:22
report also can be a resource you know
83:25
to to you know to to report back the
83:31
outcome of the report and for me image
83:35
after I leave here that I will another
83:40
assignment good to Vietnam for outreach
83:42
activity that after that I will go job
83:47
go back to China I already received
83:48
several invitations to to to give some
83:54
presentation about the outcome
83:56
thank you applause thank you
84:01
beside that speaking about countries to
84:05
reach policymaker we need a very strong
84:09
outreach program and this is why in
84:12
level secret area we established a
84:15
strategy of communication related to 1.5
84:19
special report and we divided in three
84:23
phase before the approval between the
84:26
approval and cop 24 and after the
84:30
approval and I am pleased to inform you
84:34
that already
84:36
IPC Secretariat established a caravan of
84:41
communications around 1.5 special report
84:46
and our chair has a very intense and
84:51
also with the culture very intense
84:53
program of communication and any station
84:56
in the world where we have this
84:58
communication we are as Valerie said
85:01
were addressing government's policy
85:04
maker as well as academia as well as
85:08
civil society as well as students as
85:13
well as even children in school and
85:16
naturally this for those region we where
85:19
we have some minorities we are
85:21
also addressing those mineral teas like
85:23
rural women like some indigenous
85:26
population this is the program and I
85:29
think with this we are trying to
85:32
simplify the outcome of special report
85:35
to be understood by all the
85:37
communication to take action Thank You
85:40
Abdallah so quite a few questions here
85:42
though I must say that the IPCC doesn't
85:45
comment on the policies of individual
85:47
governments so we can't really take
85:48
questions that address that so one from
85:53
Sandra Guzman of G flack have you
85:56
estimated the costs to avoid the
85:58
increase in 1.5 degrees versus two
86:01
degrees or are you planning to do so
86:05
yeah the report does look at the
86:09
incremental costs of 1.5 degrees as
86:13
opposed to 2 on the mitigation side I
86:16
think if I remember the number it's
86:17
about 12 percent increase in sort of
86:20
energy related investments in a 1.5
86:23
scenario compared to a 2 a 2 degree one
86:27
what I think the point that we strong
86:30
point would like to make it's it's not
86:32
so much the increase investment as the
86:34
shift in investments you the need for an
86:37
increase in investments in low-carbon
86:39
propositions whether it's on the energy
86:42
supply side and on the energy demand
86:45
side which is offset by reductions in in
86:50
investments or and more in fossil fuel
86:52
infrastructure well just to say this
86:55
because the literature which this report
86:57
assesses was produced very quickly that
87:00
I think we would have an aspiration as
87:02
we go into the rest of the sixth
87:04
assessment cycle to look into the
87:06
economics in more detail so that's just
87:09
just to remind you in a way that this is
87:12
a report on 1.5 degrees C that was
87:14
produced very quickly on the research
87:17
communities and the scientists responded
87:19
in a splendid way in terms of getting
87:22
new literature out which we could assess
87:24
but there is still a lot of work to be
87:26
done so when we move on to the fool IPCC
87:29
reports in the sixth assessment cycle I
87:31
think these the the questions of the
87:33
economics and a number
87:34
of authority other issues will be
87:36
explored in in more depth and that will
87:40
be in time we have to remember that the
87:42
next big IPCC reports will be produced
87:45
just in time for the first global stock
87:48
take onto the Paris agreement in 2023 so
87:52
we're very conscious of the overall
87:53
schedule and how IPCC's activities
87:56
synchronize with the work under the the
87:59
Framework Convention thank you
88:02
a question from Paul Gross of WDIV TV
88:05
for and in Detroit USA you've only
88:08
mentioned needing to reduce carbon
88:10
dioxide what about methane which is also
88:12
increasing there's a more potent
88:14
heat-trapping gas than carbon dioxide
88:16
but also much smaller quantities in the
88:18
atmosphere again Jim I think ok yeah yes
88:23
methane has covered to mean that there's
88:25
a lot of attention to greenhouse gases
88:28
other than carbon dioxide and there in
88:31
the report and methane is one of the
88:33
most important of of these so that is
88:37
absolutely certain certainly covered I
88:39
mean it's what while saying that you
88:41
know certainly outside the context of
88:44
this report that the oil and gas
88:46
industry for example has now started to
88:48
be a lot more attention to methane
88:50
emissions and what can be done in fossil
88:53
fuel production systems to reduce the
88:55
level of methane but methane is also
88:58
important in the agricultural sector as
89:00
well which which is I often say is not
89:03
my area of direct expertise but methane
89:05
is part of it but it's worthwhile saying
89:08
that the fact that methane is removed
89:11
from the atmosphere much more quickly
89:13
than for carbon dioxide is important if
89:16
carbon dioxide goes into the atmosphere
89:18
it essentially stays there methane it
89:21
actually comes out rather more quickly
89:23
which changes the dynamics and perhaps
89:26
my colleague Valerie could could do the
89:28
physical science aspects of that
89:31
actually I will just refer to the
89:33
pathways that make it possible to limit
89:36
global warming to 1.5 close to 1.5 they
89:40
involve deep reductions in emissions of
89:42
methane and black carbon another warming
89:45
agent 35 percent or more of both bite
89:49
t-50 relative to 2010 and I want to
89:53
stress again that acting on methane
89:55
black carbon and other components that
89:58
have a climate effect as well as an
90:00
effect on air quality can provide
90:02
immediate benefits for public health
90:05
thank you
90:07
question again from male motive FP thank
90:16
you was the fossil fuel industry
90:20
represented during this woops sorry last
90:23
week were they in the room and as figure
90:28
a 3 B where you have the information
90:32
about coal oil and gas was there
90:37
discussion or among parties as to
90:40
whether or not to include those figures
90:41
was there any resistance on that score
90:44
Valerie two points we have two authors
90:48
with the strong expertise linked to the
90:50
fossil fuel industry in the preparation
90:52
of the report and the additional
90:56
information in the table behind figure
90:58
SPM 3 B has been added during the
91:00
approval process to the request of
91:02
delegates to have more transparency on
91:05
the implications of the for illustrative
91:07
pathways for different components of the
91:09
energy transitions it was asked by
91:13
delegates could I just add that of
91:20
course IPCC plenaries include observer
91:23
organizations as well as country
91:25
delegations and epi acre which I forget
91:29
what the acronym stands for the
91:31
International petroleum industry
91:32
environmental something is one of the
91:35
observer organizations and I do recall
91:38
seeing a representative of this
91:40
organization at the meeting so yes they
91:42
were in the room thank you any other
91:46
questions in the room
91:47
[Music]
91:50
so from Dennis Monahan of Democracy Now
91:53
can you address the issue of poverty
91:55
reduction and reducing inequality how
91:58
can this be reasonably pursued given
92:00
that wealth inequality is higher than
92:02
ever in recent history and is growing
92:03
and maybe shook who would like to start
92:05
on that and I was like thanks for this
92:11
question well as you say that the report
92:15
is looking at many interconnections
92:18
which are there where the poverty is
92:22
essential thing for example connections
92:25
with the sustainable development and the
92:27
jobs and so the discussions and the
92:31
within the report I have in the SPM as
92:35
one would see that and also underlying
92:38
report that the poverty is kept as a
92:44
kind of a transformation space within
92:48
that which is being explored and not
92:50
something which handicaps the move
92:53
towards the kind of sustainable and and
92:58
the low-carbon future so I mean I would
93:01
say that throughout the report and also
93:05
the SPM you would find that the
93:08
sustainable development and the poverty
93:09
eradication is flagged throughout where
93:13
how its Nexus is there very strong nexus
93:16
with the with poverty and the climate
93:22
change policies and I think that is is
93:26
something which is relatively a
93:28
different as compared to a new compared
93:31
to whatever now seeing in the previous
93:32
report sir thank you very
93:35
just to stress the fact that the report
93:38
highlights the importance of policies
93:40
that shield the poor and vulnerable
93:42
especially to resolve potential
93:44
trade-offs for a range of sustainable
93:46
development goals so that's a clear
93:48
message from the reports as well thank
93:51
you question from Brian Khan of artha
93:53
the solar radiation management play a
93:56
role in any scenarios in the report why
93:58
or why not
93:59
Valerie so solar radiation modification
94:03
is not
94:04
included in any of the pathways from the
94:06
literature assessed in the report it's a
94:09
different type of response and the
94:12
report is putting an emphasis on
94:13
strengthening the global response based
94:15
on mitigation options available now Jim
94:21
do you not well I would just start that
94:24
one of the points on solar radiation
94:27
modification is that the literature is
94:29
quite limited in its scope in terms of
94:32
what is available for IPCC to assess so
94:36
stratospheric injection I think is is
94:39
the technique that has actually been
94:41
covered to the greatest extent in the
94:43
literature but it's all theoretical
94:45
concept things because we don't really
94:48
have literature that describes actual
94:50
experiments in the atmosphere and in
94:53
fact a lot of the literature on solar
94:55
radiation modification addresses legal
94:58
ethical type issues and that is why
95:01
you're the report is constructed the way
95:03
it is we have to follow the literature
95:06
one further point on solar radiation
95:08
modification I might make is of course
95:10
it changes temperatures but it doesn't
95:14
change the concentration of carbon
95:15
dioxide in the atmosphere so there are
95:18
other impacts of carbon dioxide
95:20
emissions such as ocean acidification
95:22
that are not addressed by solar
95:25
radiation modification of I don't know I
95:28
don't know if my oceanic colleague hands
95:30
partner would be able to add to that
95:32
that is that is correctly flagged and
95:35
certainly the ocean acidification the
95:38
degree of ocean acidification coming
95:41
with continued co2 emissions has already
95:44
reached a threshold where impacts can be
95:46
observed in among ocean organisms and
95:50
and these impacts would certainly become
95:54
more severe if solar radiation
95:57
modification is implemented and then the
96:00
use of fossil fuels continues without
96:03
changes valor again yeah I want to
96:06
stress that the consideration of ethics
96:09
is an important element within these
96:11
special reports and it's clearly
96:12
expressed in the framing chapter it's
96:15
also a key consideration for thing
96:17
like solar radiation modification and
96:20
it's addressed in a specific cross
96:21
chapter books in the underlying reports
96:23
thank you question from F Burt borne of
96:26
climate movement Netherlands what can
96:28
you say about the forecast growth of
96:30
aviation and carbon emissions of
96:32
international shipping is it possible to
96:34
stay within 1.5 degrees if they're not
96:36
included in the next nationally
96:38
determined contributions Jim yeah I mean
96:42
just to say the very obvious point that
96:44
aviation and maritime emissions are not
96:46
do not fall within the scope of the UN
96:48
Framework Convention on Climate Change
96:50
and there are other international
96:53
mechanisms or institutions for dealing
96:56
with that so just to say that these
97:00
other bodies have indeed begun to take
97:03
on the question of climate change very
97:06
obvious issues that with aviation it is
97:08
very difficult to look at alternative
97:10
ways of actually keeping planes in the
97:14
air we do need fuels with very high
97:17
energy density to do that so there were
97:20
bigger challenges there and possibly the
97:22
one of the few options there is the use
97:24
of biofuels to reduce emissions there
97:27
the range of options is actually much
97:30
wider in the maritime sector and one of
97:34
the things that I'm actually doing when
97:36
I invite a week's time when I go back to
97:38
London is to address a session of the
97:41
International Maritime Organization and
97:43
report to them on the outcomes of this
97:46
report so there is a great deal of
97:49
interest in it and the final point I
97:51
would make of course I want to mention
97:53
the full sixth assessment report again
97:56
and in our transportation chapter we
97:58
have specifically identified the topics
98:01
of aviation on on shipping as topics
98:05
that will be covered in the our chapter
98:07
in a very very explicit way thank you
98:10
Jim we do have some questions about the
98:12
positions of different delegations to
98:15
the to the session to to to the summary
98:19
for policymakers but we suggest you take
98:21
those questions up with with the
98:22
delegations concerned I have a question
98:26
from Chris Rado of spectrum point D
98:30
back to the carbon budgets aren't there
98:32
serious disagreements between different
98:34
disciplines about how to calculate them
98:36
and what do the two different measures
98:37
in the summary for policymakers mean
98:39
salary and Landrum actually that was the
98:43
beauty of this report bringing together
98:44
scientists from different communities
98:47
climate modeling integrated assessment
98:49
modeling so that they would work
98:50
together within the same chapter to
98:53
provide an update on on the remaining
98:55
carbon budgets and there were also
98:58
discussions about things like the
99:00
metrics to be used to refer to the state
99:03
of global mean temperature this is
99:06
clearly expressed in the report either
99:08
you measure it by using C temperature
99:10
over the oceans and surface air
99:12
temperatures over land you can also use
99:15
surface air temperature everywhere this
99:17
is easy to implement in climate models
99:20
for instance and thus the report
99:22
provides clarity on the implications of
99:24
using one metrics or another one with
99:26
respect to the remaining carbon budgets
99:28
thank you we have one one word we have a
99:31
couple of minutes to go and so the last
99:33
question at the risk of over running
99:34
slightly is from Marc Hertz guard of the
99:37
nation in the United States the 1.5
99:39
degree target carries an obvious social
99:41
justice component in terms of impacts
99:44
but can you address the drug can you
99:46
address the justice component of the
99:48
associated mitigation efforts weren't a
99:50
successful one point five degree effort
99:52
require significant financial and
99:54
technology transfers from rich to poor
99:56
countries so I think many people want to
100:00
come in on that start off with hands and
100:02
then Jim or shukla I think what we can
100:07
say in this context that the synergy
100:10
effect of various mitigation options has
100:13
has been discussed in in this report
100:15
which means back to their implications
100:17
for various sustainable development
100:20
goals as set up by by the United Nations
100:22
and in all of these these cases the
100:25
benefits are over are in excess of of
100:30
the trade-offs so if in in the general
100:33
answer is that and that has already been
100:37
been given during previous interventions
100:39
is that when it is successful to keep
100:43
climate
100:44
warming at 1.5 degrees compared to two
100:47
degrees there there will be a benefit
100:49
for sustainable development goals and
100:52
and there's a statement to be made that
100:55
hundreds of millions of people will
100:58
benefit in in terms of of the goal of of
101:01
poverty eradication so so these overall
101:06
benefits need the need to be taken into
101:08
account when also discussing the point
101:10
of view of equity
101:11
what's a briefly on the mitigation side
101:15
the report has many many interfaces
101:18
which are there between the the type of
101:21
energy and also the sustainable
101:24
development for instance the energy
101:27
access is one of the very important goal
101:29
in the sustainable development goals
101:32
framework and and also the access to the
101:39
water which is again connected with the
101:43
energy and and the sustainable
101:46
development so there are many places
101:48
where there are very specific
101:52
interconnections of the energy and
101:55
sustainable development one can see
101:57
throughout the report and that is
101:59
something which is explicitly also built
102:02
in includes some of the scenarios which
102:05
are underlying the the report's findings
102:08
and so that the sustainable development
102:13
and energy on the mitigation side not
102:17
only the mitigation of the energy side
102:18
but also the agriculture where the
102:20
methane would be coming in that I have
102:23
been explicitly considered including
102:26
actually that looking at the Nitro
102:27
nitrogen oxides with the fertilizer use
102:30
when you start changing towards the
102:33
backs etcetera and so there is a big
102:35
span of the literature which has been
102:38
very exhaustively reviewed in this this
102:41
report you very I would just like to
102:45
read the exact sentence from the reports
102:48
that I think it's most relevant to the
102:50
question public acceptability can enable
102:53
and inhibits the implementation of
102:55
policies and measures to limit global
102:56
warming to one
102:57
point five degrees Celsius and to adapt
102:59
to the consequences public acceptability
103:02
depends on the individuals evaluation of
103:04
expected policy consequences the
103:07
perceived fairness of the distribution
103:09
of these consequences and perceived
103:11
fairness of decision procedures and I
103:14
think that's a very important point of
103:16
the report
103:17
hey Jim yeah I mean if I can just say
103:20
that this question I think is a very
103:22
good one and it's much on my mind
103:24
because I've perhaps foolishly accepted
103:27
an invitation in the UK to chair a
103:29
commission on just transition which is
103:32
about these very issues of the
103:34
implications for economic activity and
103:36
employment the report does specific very
103:40
specifically mentioned to the the
103:42
importance of economic diversification
103:45
as a strategy for regions and countries
103:48
that might be affected by the scale of
103:50
the transition that we are actually
103:53
looking at and it's something that the
103:55
report hasn't been gone and hasn't
103:56
really had time to go into perhaps
103:58
because the literature isn't there but
104:00
there are real it's not a question of
104:03
jobs disappearing under a low-carbon
104:05
transition it's about new types of jobs
104:08
appearing and there are whole sets of
104:10
issues about re-skilling the employment
104:12
changing the supply-side of the labour
104:15
market that are sets of issues that we
104:17
really need to get into to ensure that
104:19
this transition can take place in a fair
104:22
an equitable kind of way so again I
104:25
think this is something you know 1.5
104:27
isn't the end of the story as we got
104:29
into the sixth Assessment Report these
104:31
challenging issues will get further
104:33
attention thank you Jim and that that's
104:37
all from us today but we're going to be
104:39
back soon you'll be hearing from us
104:41
during cop 24 in December in Poland and
104:45
next year you'll be hearing from us a
104:47
lot but we'll have 3 reports coming out
104:49
a refinement to our methodologies for
104:53
national greenhouse gas inventories and
104:56
to more special reports one on climate
104:59
change the ocean and the cryosphere and
105:01
one on climate change and land use but
105:04
for today that's it on global warming of
105:07
1.5 degrees
105:09
for those of you here or remotely will
105:12
be consuming with interviews the rest of
105:13
the day and we look forward to speaking
105:15
to you again soon thank you very much
105:19
[Applause]

[18初期非表示理由]:担当:要点がまとまってない長文orスレ違いの長文多数により全部処理

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