http://www.asyura2.com/12/hasan76/msg/451.html
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(回答先: 日銀総裁：企業マインド含め影響を注視−円高の日本経済への影響 99％誤解されている「流動性の罠」 投稿者 MR 日時 2012 年 6 月 04 日 15:59:17)
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/04/soros-on-the-euro/?gwh=26B4E0E673E81F8225746076ABC13A23
June 4, 2012, 8:11 AM
Soros on the Euro
His speech is getting a lot of attention, and rightly so. It’s not so different from what many of us have been saying, but given the source ― and, to be fair, the historical breadth of his perspective ― I can see why it’s getting people to pay attention in a way they hadn’t before.
His point about the euro bubble is particularly well taken. I’d put it this way: it so happened that the euro came into existence at a time when the German economy was in the doldrums. Then the euro made investors believe that southern Europe was safe, causing a huge fall in interest rates there:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/06/04/opinion/060412krugman1/060412krugman1-blog480.jpg
This in turn led to vast inflows of capital; the flip side of these inflows was large trade deficits, and large counterpart German surpluses, which was just what the Germans needed. Everyone was happy! For a few years.
And then the bubble burst, leading to the crisis today.
Needless to say, this story bears little resemblance to the morality play of profligacy and its consequences that has dominated European discussion until just about now. If there were any villains, they were the architects of the euro, who waved away warnings about the system’s flaws. But never mind the villains: the question is what to do now. And time is running out fast.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/02/catastrophic-credibility/
June 2, 2012, 4:58 AM
Catastrophic Credibility
A little while ago Ben Bernanke responded to suggestions that the Fed needed to do more ― in particular, that it should raise the inflation target ― by insisting that this would undermine the institution’s “hard-won credibility”. May I say that what recent events in Europe, and to some extent in the US, really suggest is that central banks have too much credibility? Or more accurately, their credibility as inflation-haters is very clear, while their willingness to tolerate even as much inflation as they say they want, let alone take some risks with inflation to rescue the real economy, is very much in doubt.
Yesterday I pointed to the German breakeven, a measure of euro area inflation expectations, which has plunged lately. Here’s a longer view:
Note the peak in April 2011. It wasn’t very high; slightly above the ECB’s target, but arguably still too low to make the needed adjustment within the euro area feasible. Nonetheless, the ECB raised rates ― and that was when the euro really began falling apart. The direct effects of the rate increase can’t explain that unraveling, but the effect on expectations ― aha, so they really are that fanatical about price stability! ― can.
Now the breakeven is plunging. I’d like to think that the ECB is holding frantic meetings and planning to announce a surprise sharp rate cut, preferably to zero, the day after tomorrow. But I doubt it. The fact is that the ECB is highly credible: most observers, me included, are quite sure that it is totally allergic to inflation and relatively indifferent to the collapse of the real economy.
The Fed has conveyed a milder form of the same message, issuing forecasts that show inflation slightly below target and unemployment far above target; given its dual mandate, this should be a flashing siren calling for more action. Yet these forecasts have been accompanied by statements to the effect that no action is currently called for. The Fed has therefore created the credible expectation that it will move only if inflation is far below the claimed target, and doesn’t really care about unemployment.
My earnest hope is that both central banks will rethink the meaning of credibility, and in particular what kind of credibility they really want to have, very soon. And by very soon I basically mean tomorrow.
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