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投稿者 赤かぶ 日時 2016 年 2 月 14 日 00:21:05: igsppGRN/E9PQ kNSCqYLU

2月 12th, 2016 あべこべな世界で逆立ちすると何が見える?

Japanese market close to reading last rites over Abenomics


February 8, 2016 4:00 PM
ロイター 2016/02/08
Japanese shares have soared at previous steps in Abenomics

* BOJ’s negative interest rates had barely any effect
* Market signalling disillusion with missed targets
* Nikkei only up 10 pct in dollars since March 2013


By Hideyuki Sano and Tomo Uetake
著:サノ・ヒデユキ ウエタケ・トモ
編:Will Waterman

TOKYO, Feb 9 (Reuters) - When Prime Minister Shinzo Abe launched his three-pronged programme to revive Japan’s stagnant, deflationary economy three years ago, the stock market cheered every step along the way.
Not any more.

[東京 ロイター 9日]3年前、安倍晋三首相が停滞する日本のデフレ経済を再生するために三本一組の施策を始動させたとき、株式市場はその一挙手一投足を熱狂をもって見守った。

The “third arrow” of Abenomics – reforms to make the economy more productive – is barely a work in progress, but Abe got straight to work on the first two, fiscal expansion and monetary stimulus, with the enthusiastic support of a new governor at the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Haruhiko Kuroda.


In the first year of the programme, the Nikkei index jumped nearly 60 percent, drawing in a net 15 trillion yen ($128 billion) of foreign cash. Enthusiasm for Kuroda’s bold stimulus, in particular, was strong, with each of his first two money-printing announcements prompting a 7 percent weekly surge.


His decision last week to introduce negative interest rates was equally bold, and quite unexpected, but as Abe’s arrows have sailed wide of their target, investors have sat on their hands.


“The market’s reaction is getting duller day by day. The negative interest rates boosted the market only for two days,” said Norihiro Fujito, senior investment analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, and trading data shows even that was down to short-term “gamblers”, he added.


A week later, even those gains are gone, as foreign investors withdrew a net 207 billion yen from the market, taking their total for 2016 to more than 1 trillion yen. U.S.-based Japanese stock funds also saw an outflow in the week ended Feb 3.


Though the Nikkei is up about 36 percent since Kuroda was appointed in March 2013, the yen has weakened from 95 to nearly 117 to the dollar over that period, so in dollar terms it is up only 10 percent, less than half the rise seen on the U.S. S&P 500 index.




It is hard to fault foreign investors’ pessimism, when Abenomics has failed in its principal aims to shake off two decades of deflation and flat growth.


Many economists expect last quarter’s GDP data, due later this month, to show a contraction, the fifth in the last nine quarters.
Kuroda’s primary goal, to achieve 2 percent growth in prices, is as far away as ever, with core inflation stuck around zero as oil prices tumble.
Despite the easing, the yen is near its strongest level in more than a year, dimming the prospects for exporters.

物価上昇率2%を達成するという黒田総裁の目標は、石油価格が急落するなかでコアインフレ率がゼロを行き来している状態では、達成には程遠い。[異次元] 緩和を行っても、円はここ一年の中で最高額をマークをしており、輸出企業の展望は暗い。

The headwinds, such as slowdown in China, weak external demand and the oil market rout, are mainly beyond the control of Abe and Kuroda.
But that is why investors think Japanese policymakers are pushing against a piece of string, despite Kuroda’s defiant talk that there is no limit to monetary easing.


“Negative rates will do little to enhance prosperity and economic growth … They are a means to depreciate the currency and boost asset prices to some extent. But the global economy is already rather weak,” said Michael Kretschmer, chief investment officer at Pelargos Capital in the Hague, the Netherlands.

オランダ、ハーグのペラルゴスキャピタルの最高投資責任者(CIO)であるミカエル・クレシュマー(Michael Kretschmer)氏はこう語る。

Some investors are pinning their hopes on Abe’s third arrow, structural reforms such as addressing labour market rigidity.
But they are not holding their breath.


“Real economic reform will only make a difference in the longer term. So I can only hope that Abenomics doesn’t lose momentum,” said Hannah Cunliffe, senior portfolio manager at Union Investment in Frankfurt. ($1 = 116.8500 yen)

フランクフルトのユニオンインベストメントでシニアポートフォリオマネージャを務めるハンナ・クンリフ(Hannah Cunliffe)はこう語る。

(記事執筆時のレートは$1 = 116.8500 円)

【補足】アベノミクス 挫折への道 | 2016年2月12日(金) ウォールストリートジャーナル日本語版 (WSJ)も、あの話題になった"impasse"(行き詰まり)に関する記事を和訳したみたいです。これでロイター、WSJの二紙の見解が出揃いましたね。



1. 2016年2月14日 17:59:05 : QuKWjS0e3k : pBKoFgooO8k[2]
 いつか来ることだよ。 シャブが切れただけ。

2. 2016年2月14日 21:12:53 : ewUNDXeW9E : _kYA4_QcorQ[21]



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